- 1 Maritimo vs Benfica: the Madeira newcomers face Marco Silva’s machine
- 2 Maritimo: a strong start, but a flat spot at Arouca
- 3 Benfica: 29 goals in eight games and Pavlidis leading the scoring charts
- 4 Football prediction Maritimo vs Benfica
- 5 First, a quick word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Maritimo vs Benfica: the Madeira newcomers face Marco Silva’s machine 
29 goals in their last 8 matches, at least two scored in 7 of them: Benfica are running like an attacking conveyor belt. This Saturday at 18:00 in round 5 of Liga Portugal, though, the Lisbon side head to Estadio do Maritimo. And on home turf, the Madeira outfit are no mugs: only one defeat in their last 8 games there.
The numbers and the context:
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A tight race at the top: Benfica, in 5th, have 7 points from 3 matches, with 11 scored and 3 conceded, plus a game in hand. Maritimo, 7th, also have 7 points, but from 4 games.
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Maritimo’s two sides: the reigning Liga 2 champions started fast, then hit the wall over the last two weeks.
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The Marco Silva effect: After Jose Mourinho left for Real Madrid, Marco Silva took charge. The first outing was a mess in Switzerland against St. Gallen (2-1), but the response was immediate: Benfica have been steamrolling everyone since.
Benfica come in off a run of results that booked their place in the European league phase, with two ties won 6-2 on aggregate. In the league, only Sporting have scored more than the Eagles.
The recent head-to-heads point firmly the same way: Benfica have won the last six meetings between the sides. Maritimo’s only win in the last eleven, however, came in Funchal, a 2-0 victory.
Maritimo: a strong start, but a flat spot at Arouca 
Maritimo have seven points after four rounds, with six goals scored and five conceded.
That total was built early, with wins over Casa Pia and then Famalicao. The last two rounds, though, raise questions: just one point from six.
A 2-2 draw with Academico de Viseu was followed by a 2-1 defeat at Arouca, even though the Madeira side had taken the lead. Martin Tejon struck late in the first half before Espen van Ee and Ivan Barbero turned it around either side of the break.
Their main strength is still in Funchal, where Mitchell van der Gaag has lost only once in his last eight competitive home games, a run that started in the second division. That is about the only solid argument before hosting the country’s third-biggest budget.
The Dutch coach named the same XI in the first three rounds before being forced into a change at Arouca. Simo Bouzaidi was injured in the warm-up, opening the door to Bryan Limbombe’s first start on the right.
The new arrival should keep his place, with Bouzaidi still a doubt. Tomas Tavares, Nathanael Ogbeta, Yellu Santiago and Maxime Dominguez are also questionable.
Up front, Adrian Butzke is expected to lead the line alongside Tejon, who has finally opened his account. Much of the attacking work hinges on that pair, which leaves the side exposed if they misfire.
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Benfica: 29 goals in eight games and Pavlidis leading the scoring charts 
Benfica have scored 29 goals in their last eight games in all competitions, conceding seven.
That pace picked up after a shaky start, a draw on opening day at home to promoted Academico de Viseu. The 7-0 thumping of Casa Pia in Rio Maior kicked the whole thing into gear.
They backed it up with a 2-1 win over Estoril Praia at Estadio da Luz last weekend. Their third-round match against Moreirense was postponed because of European commitments, so the Eagles still have a game in hand.
On the continental stage, they turned over St. Gallen 5-0 in the second leg and then got rid of Aarhus, both times 6-2 on aggregate. Eleven goals in three league games leave Benfica just behind Sporting, the division’s top scorers.
Away form is another box to tick. Benfica finished last season as the third-best travellers in the league, collecting 41 points on the road, and their only away trip this season ended in a rout.
The injury list is light. Captain Fredrik Aursnes returned to training on Wednesday after an ankle sprain and will be assessed, while Enzo Barrenechea, who came off against Estoril, is a doubt.
Joao Palhinha, who replaced Barrenechea in that game, could now make his first start. Up front, Vangelis Pavlidis remains the league’s top scorer with five goals.
Probable Maritimo XI: Pastor ; Juliao, Fernandes, Correia, Henrique ; Andrade, Danilovic ; Limbombe, Guzzo, Tejon ; Butzke
Probable Benfica XI: Soares ; Bah, Araujo, Lenglet, Dahl ; Palhinha, Barreiro ; R. Silva, Sudakov, Prestianni ; Pavlidis
Football prediction Maritimo vs Benfica
Our pick: Benfica to win by at least two goals
The price on a straight Benfica win is no real use, so the margin is where the value sits. Their attacking numbers justify it: 29 goals in eight matches and 11 in three league games.
Maritimo have shipped two goals in each of their last two outings and go into this one with several defensive doubts, from Tomas Tavares to Nathanael Ogbeta. Against a Pavlidis who tops the scoring charts, the gap looks thin.
Benfica have also won the last six meetings between the two clubs. Back the Lisbon side to win by at least two.
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