- 1 Fenerbahce vs Besiktas: Istanbul’s first big derby of the season
- 2 Fenerbahce are creating chances in bulk
- 3 Besiktas lean on the league’s best defence
- 4 Football prediction Fenerbahce vs Besiktas
- 5 First, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Fenerbahce vs Besiktas: Istanbul’s first big derby of the season 
Fenerbahce host Besiktas on Saturday, September 5 at 20:00 local time, 19:00 in France, at the Chobani Stadyumu in Kadikoy. Matchday four of the Super Lig is already serving up the first major Istanbul derby of the campaign.
Both clubs are on six points and sit inside the top four. So neither side has got the upper hand going into this one.
Ismail Kartal, back for a third spell in charge of Fenerbahce, has steadied the ship after a sloppy start. Vincenzo Italiano, meanwhile, comes in off a week that could hardly have been more mixed at Besiktas.
The last eight official meetings between the two clubs have all produced a winner. The Kadikoy derby has not seen a draw in a long time.
Fenerbahce did win the last league meeting, 1-0 in April, thanks to a 90th-minute Kerem Akturkoglu penalty. Even so, Besiktas have won three of the last five official clashes.
Both clubs are chasing the same thing: an end to their league title drought. A result on Saturday night would be worth a lot more than three points.
Fenerbahce booked their return to the Champions League by knocking out Lyon in qualifying, drawing 1-1 at home before winning 2-1 in France. Besiktas, by contrast, crashed out in Europe against Kauno Zalgiris.
So the two sides head into this derby on very different continental paths. That context matters as much as the Super Lig table.
Fenerbahce are creating chances in bulk 
Fenerbahce began the season with a 2-1 defeat at Genclerbirligi, a result that put Kartal under immediate pressure. The response came quickly with a 4-2 win over Konyaspor and a 2-0 success at Samsunspor.
Vedat Muriqi opened the scoring in that latest win, with Archie Brown adding the second. It also gave the club their first league clean sheet of the season.
That third straight victory in all competitions includes the Champions League qualification over Lyon, sealed with a 2-1 second-leg win. The mood is a lot calmer now than it was a fortnight ago.
Fenerbahce’s attacking output is eye-catching: seven goals from 7.42 expected goals across three league games, and an average of 2.47 xG per match, second only to Galatasaray. The defence, though, has shipped three goals from just 2.90 xGA, a sign the back line can still tighten up.
The injury list remains long, with Mert Hakan Yandas suspended, while Anderson Talisca, Kerem Akturkoglu, Marco Asensio, Caglar Soyuncu and Jayden Oosterwolde are all out. Talisca is expected back around mid-September, while Oosterwolde will not return before late October because of an Achilles problem.
Kartal is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 used during this run, with N’Golo Kante and Matteo Guendouzi doing the dirty work in midfield. Irfan Can Kahveci should operate as the creator behind Muriqi.
Mason Greenwood and Oguz Aydin are expected to keep their places in the attacking trio. Greenwood gives them direct running out wide, while Aydin offers the depth Fenerbahce need.
The new-found solidity at Samsunspor gives Kartal a platform to build on. It was Fenerbahce’s first league game without conceding this season.
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Besiktas lean on the league’s best defence 
Besiktas have had a complete swing of fortunes in the space of a week. Two straight 1-0 defeats, against Alanyaspor in the league and Kauno Zalgiris in Europe, were followed by a 6-2 demolition of Corum Belediyespor.
Dusan Vlahovic hit a hat-trick in that statement win, with Vaclav Cerny, Orkun Kokcu and Junior Olaitan also getting on the scoresheet. Four of the six goals came after the break.
Even so, the team’s biggest strength remains at the other end. Besiktas have conceded just four goals in nine games in all competitions. In the league, they have let in three, along with the division’s lowest expected goals against total, 1.31.
That suggests this is not just a goalkeeper story. Besiktas are actually stopping opponents from carving out clear chances. The four goals conceded have all come in their last three games, though.
Kadikoy does not appear to frighten the Black Eagles, who have won three of their last five visits in all competitions, including two of the last four Super Lig meetings. No major absentees have been reported for the visitors.
Italiano is expected to go with the 4-1-4-1 used against Corum, with Salih Ozcan sitting in front of the defence and Alexander Nubel in goal. Vlahovic should keep his place up front after that hat-trick.
Orkun Kokcu and Leandro Trossard operate in the inside channels in this one-holder system. That leaves space behind them whenever Besiktas lose the ball.
That is exactly where Fenerbahce create most of their danger. The key battle will be whether Salih Ozcan can cover that space on his own.
Probable Fenerbahce team: Ederson ; Semedo, Skriniar, Ake, Brown ; Guendouzi, Kante ; Greenwood, Kahveci, Aydin ; Muriqi
Probable Besiktas team: Nubel ; Murillo, Agbadou, Djalo, Yilmaz ; Ozcan ; Cerny, Olaitan, Kokcu, Trossard ; Vlahovic
Football prediction Fenerbahce vs Besiktas
Our prediction: both teams to score
The last eight official meetings have all produced a winner, which points to open games and goals at both ends. Both clubs have also scored seven goals apiece across three league matches.
Fenerbahce are generating 2.47 expected goals per match and will have the home crowd behind them, a combination that makes a blank from the hosts hard to see. Besiktas arrive with a confident Vlahovic and an attack that has just scored six.
We are backing both teams to score. This derby has not ended level in eight meetings, so goals at both ends looks the likeliest call.
Besiktas have only conceded four goals in nine matches, but all four have come in their last three outings. The recent trend does not quite match the season average.
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