- 1 North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders: seven wins from eight, and the numbers back it up
- 2 The Cowboys are fine-tuning for finals
- 3 Canberra close out a failed season with a younger side
- 4 NRL prediction North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders
- 5 First of all, a note on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders: seven wins from eight, and the numbers back it up 
The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight meetings with Canberra. The record between these two clubs leaves little room for debate.
This one closes out the 27th and final round of the Telstra Premiership regular season, on Saturday 5 September at 17:30 local time, at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville.
The stakes, though, are very different on each side.
North Queensland sit eighth with 32 points from 23 rounds, and their finals spot is already locked in.
Canberra are 12th with 26 points, 13 defeats on the board and a season that ends when the whistle blows.
The attacking and defensive numbers are actually pretty similar: 538 points scored and 602 conceded for the Cowboys, 531 and 596 for the Raiders.
One historical wrinkle still matters, though: Canberra have not managed to beat North Queensland twice in the same season since 2018.
The two attacks are close as well, with just seven points separating their season totals.
So the context, far more than the raw numbers, decides this one.
North Queensland are playing for their finals seeding. Canberra are simply trying to shut the door on a season with 13 losses.
Canberra have scored 531 points this year, seven fewer than North Queensland in the same number of games.
The difference between the clubs has come from elsewhere, not in attack.
The Cowboys are fine-tuning for finals 
Thirteen wins and ten defeats from 23 rounds: North Queensland have built their season on consistency rather than flash.
Last week’s win over the Wests Tigers in Townsville was a perfect example, even if it never felt comfortable.
Tom Dearden’s return from injury changed the mood, with the captain and halfback looking right back at home on his comeback.
Todd Payten still wants more in a few areas, which makes sense when your points difference sits at -64.
The pack has been reshuffled. John Bateman and Coen Hess come into the starting side, with Sam McIntyre and Kaiden Lahrs moving to the bench.
Jeremiah Nanai is out after a knee injury against the Tigers, while Griffin Neame is sidelined with a toe issue.
Robert Derby takes the wing spot left open by Zac Laybutt, who suffered a concussion.
Two men in form are worth watching: Tom Chester has scored four tries in his last five appearances, and Jaxon Purdue has crossed in each of his last three matches.
Away from home, North Queensland’s record is perfectly even at six wins and six defeats.
Townsville has still been the place where they’ve looked most reliable this season.
Scott Drinkwater stays at fullback, with Jake Clifford at five-eighth alongside Dearden.
Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter anchor a changed pack, with Soni Luke and Thomas Mikaele on the bench.
That -64 points difference is mostly down to a few heavy losses along the way.
They’ve already secured a finals place ahead of this last round, so there’s no pressure on the numbers now.
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Canberra close out a failed season with a younger side 
Ten wins from 23 rounds and a -65 points difference: the Raiders finish well short of the top-eight target they were aiming at.
Their away record, five wins and six defeats, is about the only part of the season that looks remotely respectable.
This final outing carries real symbolism for the Canberra dressing room.
Josh Papalii, a club legend, ends his career after this campaign and starts at prop.
Morgan Smithies, back from concussion, will play his last match in this jersey before joining the Perth Bears.
The coaching staff have also opted to blood some young talent. Coby Black gets his first NRL start at halfback, with Ethan Sanders rested.
Malachi Smith also makes his debut, coming off the bench at hooker, alongside Vena Patuki-Case, who is playing only his second senior match.
Noah Martin returns from a quad injury to cover for Zac Hosking, while Corey Horsburgh remains in Canberra after shoulder surgery.
Kaeo Weekes is the main attacking threat, with five tries in his last six games.
Canberra’s bench includes two players who have just one NRL appearance between them before this trip.
Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii make up the most experienced front row the club still has available.
Ethan Strange stays at five-eighth to steer Coby Black, who is thrust straight into the scrum for his first start.
Matthew Timoko and Simi Sasagi partner up in the centres, with the job of feeding Kaeo Weekes outside them.
The 596 points conceded by Canberra are the real stain on a season that slipped away just short.
They finish with 26 points in the table, six behind eighth.
Probable North Queensland Cowboys line-up : Drinkwater ; Burns, Purdue, Chester, Derby ; Clifford, Dearden ; Hess, Mahoney, Taumalolo, Luki, Bateman, Cotter. Subs : Luke, McIntyre, Mikaele, Lahrs.
Probable Canberra Raiders line-up : Weekes ; Stuart, Sasagi, Timoko, Savage ; Strange, Black ; Papalii, Pattie, Tapine, Martin, Nicholson, Mariota. Subs : M. Smith, Roddy, Smithies, Patuki-Case.
NRL prediction North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders
Our prediction: North Queensland Cowboys to win
Seven wins from the last eight meetings and home advantage in Townsville give Todd Payten’s side a solid edge.
Canberra, meanwhile, are fielding two debutants and a rookie halfback in a match that no longer changes anything for them in the table.
The Cowboys still have finals positioning to sharpen and a bit of rhythm to find before the playoffs. They should take this.
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