- 1 Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen: two goals up and a stadium that has already knocked out the big names
- 2 Bodø/Glimt: six European games, a 6-5 aggregate and a two-goal lead
- 3 NEC Nijmegen: a scrap with Olympiacos, then a wall in Nijmegen
- 4 Champions League prediction Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen: two goals up and a stadium that has already knocked out the big names 
Bodø/Glimt head back with a 3-1 win from the Netherlands. The Norwegian club go into this second leg with a two-goal cushion and home advantage.
Beaten 3-1 at home on 19 August, NEC Nijmegen have left themselves in serious trouble. Down 3-0 early in the second half, after conceding in the 25th minute and giving away a penalty just before the break, the Dutch side did not respond until the 86th minute.
That late rally at least stopped it becoming a full-scale collapse and leaves a sliver of tension before the return leg on Tuesday 25 August (21h) at Aspmyra Stadion.
The equation is straightforward: to reach the league phase of the Champions League, NEC must win by at least two goals in Norway to force extra time, or by three to go through in 90 minutes.
The losers drop into the Europa League. The problem for the Dutch club? They have not managed a single win by two goals or more since the start of summer.
Even so, both teams had looked set for a tight tie after scraping through the previous round at the death: Bodø/Glimt against Union Saint-Gilloise (6-5 on aggregate) and Nijmegen against Olympiacos (2-1), both after extra time.
But the Norwegians arrive with a very different profile. Regulars in European competition, they turned heads last season by reaching the last 16 of the Champions League after taking down heavyweights such as Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan.
That sort of pedigree matters when you read this second leg. None of the clubs involved in this tie has anything close to that recent continental record.
NEC, meanwhile, are chasing a first-ever place in the Champions League league phase. The Nijmegen club has never reached this stage before.
Tactically, this second leg will hinge on the Dutch side getting off to a fast start at Aspmyra. Without a goal before the hour mark, the comeback becomes a near-impossible job.
Bodø/Glimt: six European games, a 6-5 aggregate and a two-goal lead 
Bodø/Glimt entered the competition in the third qualifying round, the league path. The Norwegian club were handed Union Saint-Gilloise, a side of similar European standing.
The first leg in Brussels finished in a wild 3-3 draw. Three away goals in a game of that level tell you plenty about the attacking threat in this side.
The return needed extra time. A 3-2 win after 120 minutes sealed progress on a 6-5 aggregate.
Six goals across two games against a Belgian Pro League side are the key numbers from their summer. Bodø/Glimt do not rely on one isolated performance.
The flip side is a defence that conceded five in that same tie. Bodø/Glimt do not shut teams out; they outscore them.
The first leg in Nijmegen backed that up. Three goals away from home, one conceded late on, and the Norwegians applied the same formula on the road.
Across their last three European matches, Bodø/Glimt have scored at least three times in each one. No other club in these play-offs can match that sort of attacking consistency.
Aspmyra Stadion is the final factor, and probably the biggest. It is on that artificial pitch, in that northern cold, that the club has built its European reputation over recent seasons.
So Bodø/Glimt are at home, two goals ahead, and coming off three goals in each of their last three continental outings. The margin is comfortable, and the numbers back it up.
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NEC Nijmegen: a scrap with Olympiacos, then a wall in Nijmegen 
NEC entered the competition in the third qualifying round, the league path. Their opponents were Olympiacos, a familiar name at European group stage level.
The first leg in Piraeus ended 0-0. Coming away from Greece with a goalless draw was already a decent result for the Nijmegen club.
The return needed extra time to come alive. A 2-1 win after 120 minutes, 2-1 on aggregate, and a historic qualification secured the hard way.
That run says two things about this team. They can dig in defensively away from home, but they do not create much going forward.
Across their three European matches this season, NEC have scored just three goals. Two of them came in that extra-time win over Olympiacos.
The home first leg exposed the flaw in the plan. Trailing 3-0 on their own pitch, the Dutch side did not find a way through until the 86th minute.
Conceding three at home in a match of this size is the clearest warning sign of their summer. The defence that held firm in Piraeus could not handle the Norwegian pressure.
NEC now need to win by two goals in Norway just to force extra time. They have not scored more than twice in any European match this season.
The club are chasing a first-ever place in the Champions League league phase. That fresh motivation counts for something, but it does not close the attacking gap.
There is still a safety net. Exit here and NEC drop into the Europa League league phase, so a full continental campaign is guaranteed whatever happens at Aspmyra.
Likely Bodø/Glimt line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Likely NEC Nijmegen line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Champions League prediction Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen
Our pick: Bodø/Glimt win
Bodø/Glimt have scored at least three goals in each of their last three European matches: 3-3 in Brussels, 3-2 against Union Saint-Gilloise, 3-1 in Nijmegen. Two of those three games were away from home.
NEC arrive having scored three goals in three European matches, with two of them coming in extra time against Olympiacos. Against this Norwegian attack, keeping Bodø/Glimt out for 90 minutes at Aspmyra would be a serious outlier.
The Dutch side also have to attack from the opening whistle, which opens exactly the spaces Bodø/Glimt feed on. The tactical setup widens the gap rather than closing it.
Bodø/Glimt win this second leg at Aspmyra. That is the play here.
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