- 1 Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens : the numbers behind a tie that looks tighter than it first appears
- 2 Levski Sofia : six European games, no defeats
- 3 AEK Athens: stronger squad, very recent restart
- 4 Champions League prediction Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens : the numbers behind a tie that looks tighter than it first appears 
Levski Sofia have played six European qualifying matches this summer. AEK Athens have played none.
That gap in rhythm is the first clear factor heading into the first leg. The Bulgarian club came in at the opening qualifying round and have come through three straight two-legged ties, while the Greek champions went straight into the play-offs thanks to their domestic title.
The prize is the same for both sides: a place in the Champions League league phase. The loser of the tie does not go home empty-handed, though, as they drop straight into the Europa League league phase.
Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 August at 21:00 Central European time at Vasil Levski Stadium in Sofia. The return leg takes place on 26 August in Athens.
The market has the Greeks ahead, but only just. The best prices available put a Bulgarian win at 2.90, with an Athens victory at 2.50, which works out at 31% implied probability for Levski, 29% for the draw and 39% for AEK.
Tactically, this one should turn on a gap in individual quality that the fixture list has not yet tested. Levski arrive sharp. AEK arrive with the better squad on paper.
Levski Sofia : six European games, no defeats 
Three rounds, six matches, zero defeats. Levski Sofia’s record in these qualifiers leaves no room for argument.
In the first round, the Bulgarians drew 1-1 in Banja Luka before sweeping Borac aside in the return leg with a 4-0 win. The second round was much tighter against Universitatea Craiova, beaten 1-0 in Sofia before holding on for a 2-2 draw in Romania and a 3-2 aggregate win.
The third round produced their cleanest display. A 1-0 home win over Kairat Almaty, then a 0-1 victory in Kazakhstan, and not a single goal conceded across 180 minutes.
The domestic league is backing up the form. Four wins from four, top of the table, and the title defence has started exactly how the club would have wanted.
The treatment room is taking some shine off the optimism. Sangare, who scored 9 goals and provided 2 assists last season, and first-choice defender Kamden are out, while Vulikic, Kirilov and Bouras remain doubts for this first leg.
Up front, left winger Everton Bala remains the main threat with 18 league goals last season, supported by Irishman Armstrong Oko-Flex, who chipped in with 8 goals and 6 assists. Reinaldo, who scored the only goal in the second leg against Kairat, has already shown he can unlock a stubborn game.
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AEK Athens: stronger squad, very recent restart 
AEK Athens finished last season’s Greek Super League six points clear of Olympiakos. That title earned them a direct route into the play-offs, with no need to go through the qualifying rounds.
The downside is obvious: the Athenians have not had any European competitive football under their belts this summer. Their first proper competitive outing only came last weekend, in the Greek Super Cup against OFI.
Their summer build-up delivered four wins from five, against Groningen, Zwolle, Sint-Truiden and Kallithea. Only Samsunspor managed to beat them in that run.
The attacking burden sits first and foremost on Luka Jovic, the club’s top scorer last season with 17 goals. Barnabas Varga, signed during the winter 2026 window, found the net five times.
In midfield, Lovro Majer arrived from Wolfsburg in the 2026 summer window and brings a final pass that Levski have not yet faced on this run. At the back, experience is the theme, with Domagoj Vida, a 2018 World Cup finalist, and Harold Moukoudi, formerly of Saint-Etienne and Le Havre.
One notable departure came in the attacking midfield area: Mexican Pineda, who scored 5 and set up 2, has joined Monterrey. Frantzdy Pierrot remains a rotation option up front, blocked by the established pecking order.
Champions League prediction Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens
Our prediction: AEK Athens to win
Levski’s path so far has only taken them past teams with a lower coefficient than their own: Borac Banja Luka, Universitatea Craiova and Kairat Almaty. AEK Athens are a step up, with an UEFA coefficient of 24,000 compared with 7,000 for the Bulgarians.
The gap is most obvious up front. Jovic and Varga scored 22 goals between them last season, while Levski go into this first leg without Sangare and with three more fitness doubts in the squad.
The Greeks are short on rhythm, and that is the only real counter-argument. It is not enough. Back AEK Athens to win in Sofia.
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