- 1 Arsenal vs Manchester City: the Community Shield kicks off the English season in Cardiff
- 2 Arsenal: champions in title, but a centre-back pair needs rebuilding
- 3 Manchester City: tidy summer, but a team still being put together
- 4 Football Prediction Arsenal vs Manchester City
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Arsenal vs Manchester City: the Community Shield kicks off the English season in Cardiff
The first piece of English silverware in the 2026-27 season is on the line on Sunday at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, 20 years after the Community Shield last made it to Wales. The Welsh ground and its 74,500 seats will stage the Premier League champions against the FA Cup winners.
Arsenal arrive as reigning domestic champions, while Manchester City come in with the FA Cup tucked under their arm after beating Chelsea. Different ways of making their mark last season, same target for the one that is about to begin.
There is a bit of extra edge on the Manchester side too: this will be Enzo Maresca’s first competitive match in charge of the Citizens after Pep Guardiola’s exit this summer. The Italian, formerly of Chelsea, inherits a squad that is still a work in progress in the transfer market.
Cardiff also brings back a specific memory for the Gunners. In 2023, Arsenal beat City in this same fixture on penalties, thanks to a decisive strike from Fabio Vieira.
The rules are unchanged: if it is level after 90 minutes, there is no extra time, straight to penalties. That can matter a lot when two sides this good keep cancelling each other out.
The bookmakers lean slightly towards the London side, priced at around 13/8 for the win in 90 minutes, compared with 9/5 for City. A tiny gap that says plenty about how even this looks.
The history of the competition shows what is at stake beyond the badge. Arsenal have 17 Community Shield wins, City seven, including three in Guardiola’s era.
Only Manchester United have done better than the Gunners, with 21 trophies, four of them shared. Arsenal have shared it just once in their 17 wins.
Arsenal: champions in title, but a centre-back pair needs rebuilding 
Arsenal’s summer has not exactly gone to plan. One win from four official friendlies, and no victories in their last three games.
The 4-1 win at Girona was the best of the lot, but the 3-1 home defeat to Betis and the 1-1 draw with Como were reminders that Mikel Arteta’s side are not quite where they need to be. Dortmund and Como were actually beaten on penalties, not in open play.
The biggest problem is at the back. William Saliba (back) will miss several months, while Jurrien Timber (groin) is out for several weeks, leaving two first-choice defenders unavailable right from the off.
The rest of the group is available, though not necessarily match fit. Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Martin Zubimendi did not play a single minute in pre-season and are expected to start on the bench, which leaves Arsenal without three key names from the first whistle.
There is at least one bright spot: Bruno Guimaraes, signed for 75 million pounds this summer and used off the bench against Como, is ready for his first start. David Raya, who saved two penalties in midweek, will naturally keep his place as No 1 goalkeeper.
Arsenal have lifted this trophy twice in the current decade, and both times came via penalties. They beat Liverpool at Wembley in 2020, then Manchester City in Cardiff in 2023.
That comfort in shootouts has carried over this summer too. Dortmund and Como were both beaten on penalties at the Emirates Stadium.
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Manchester City: tidy summer, but a team still being put together 
On paper, City have come through the summer unbeaten in normal time. The 1-1 draw with Inter ended in a penalty shootout loss, then the Citizens strung together two 3-1 wins, first against a K-League select side and then against Atletico Madrid.
That final match brought Omar Marmoush into focus, with a brace in Erling Haaland’s absence. It gave Maresca something to work with up front beyond the obvious names.
Haaland has only recently returned to the training ground. At 26, the Norwegian has no pre-season minutes in his legs and is expected to start on the bench, just like Rice and Saka on the other side.
The midfield still looks a bit shaky. Rodri is out after back surgery, leaving Nico Gonzalez and Mateo Kovacic as the double pivot, while Elliot Anderson, the latest signing, has yet to play a single official minute.
There are two other question marks. Savinho missed a session earlier in the week through illness, while Tijjani Reijnders is close to a move worth 52 million pounds to the Saudi Pro League. In head-to-head terms, City have lost just one of their last six meetings with Arsenal, including a 2-1 win at the Etihad in April 2026 thanks to a Haaland goal.
Last season already went City’s way in the direct contests. They beat Arsenal 2-0 in the EFL Cup final at Wembley in March 2026, before the 2-1 win at the Etihad in April.
A victory on Sunday would make it three straight against Arsenal, something they have not managed since 2023. Maresca has a chance to make a statement in his first competitive outing.
Probable Arsenal team: Raya ; White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Hincapie ; Guimaraes, Lewis-Skelly ; Madueke, Odegaard, Tzolis ; Havertz
Probable Manchester City team: Donnarumma ; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, Ait-Nouri ; Kovacic, Gonzalez ; Savinho, Foden, Semenyo ; Marmoush
Football Prediction Arsenal vs Manchester City
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Both defences head to Cardiff with issues. Arsenal are without Saliba and Timber, City are missing Rodri in front of their back line, and both managers will have to roll out new pairings.
The April meeting at the Etihad points the same way: both teams scored in City’s 2-1 win. Add Arsenal conceding three against Betis in pre-season and City scoring at least once in every summer outing.
The no-extra-time format also pushes both sides to play on rather than sit back and protect. Both teams to score looks the clearest angle on this fixture.
The no-extra-time format adds one more twist: neither side will want to drift towards penalties without having had a proper go. So a cagey game looks unlikely.
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