- 1 New Zealand vs Italy: All Blacks ready to bust open Italy’s defence in Auckland
- 2 Dave Rennie’s All Blacks are out to turn the screw
- 3 Italy face the biggest challenge in world rugby
- 4 Nations Championship prediction: New Zealand vs Italy
- 5 Before we start, a word on our picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Changing information
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images
New Zealand vs Italy: All Blacks ready to bust open Italy’s defence in Auckland
The second round of the Nations Championship serves up a mismatch on paper as New Zealand take on Italy. After getting past France with a win, albeit not without a scare, the All Blacks head into this home fixture determined to crank things up a notch.
In Dave Rennie’s first game in charge in Christchurch, the All Blacks edged a 34-32 win over a heavily rotated France side. Driven by braces from Cam Roigard and Will Jordan, plus a try from Peter Lakai, the New Zealanders helped push the total past 57.5 points. Italy, by contrast, made a mess of their tournament opener in Tokyo. Juan Ignacio Brex struck early in the 5th minute, but the Azzurri were then overwhelmed by Japan’s ruthlessness, falling to a clear 27-10 defeat without scoring after the break.
Try it for $0.99.
Dave Rennie’s All Blacks are out to turn the screw 
Priced at 4/1 for the title behind favourites South Africa, New Zealand need to settle their fans after a first outing that was thrilling but far too loose at the back. Will Jordan and company are coming off a mixed end to 2025, featuring eye-catching wins over Ireland (26-13) and Scotland (25-17), but also a heavy loss at Twickenham against England (33-19) before they bounced back in Wales (52-26).
For this second home game, the All Blacks staff will want a much cleaner performance, especially after a set-piece that was bullied at times by the French pack. The backline’s attacking quality is beyond question, but handling the sloppy moments is what will matter if they are to avoid the odd lapse. Against an opponent they have historically battered, New Zealand will be eyeing a scoring spree to boost their points difference ahead of the volcanic test to come against Ireland.
Italy face the biggest challenge in world rugby 
Capable of brilliance and heartbreak in equal measure, Italy had shown real signs of progress in the last Six Nations. The Azzurri finished a strong fourth thanks to historic home wins in Rome over Scotland (18-15) and, even more impressively, England (23-18). Their end to 2025 was encouraging too, with a statement win over Australia (26-19) and a controlled victory over Chile (34-19).
Sadly, the beating they took in Japan was a reminder of their limits away from home. Their historical record against the All Blacks also hangs heavy over them: at the 2023 World Cup in Lyon, Italy suffered one of the worst defeats in their history in a 96-17 hammering, before making it more respectable in November 2024 in Turin (11-29). Unless they bring iron discipline and an unbreakable defensive wall for 80 minutes, the trip to Auckland could get ugly fast.
Nations Championship prediction: New Zealand vs Italy
New Zealand by 32 or more
The gap in class and momentum between these two sides is huge heading into round two. Italy have shown they can compete at home in Europe, but their regular trips to the Southern Hemisphere keep exposing a lack of pace and physical punch. Their second-half collapse against Japan is a worrying sign before they face the world’s most dangerous attack on home turf.
The All Blacks, lifted by their opening win, should play with far more fluency in transition. Under Dave Rennie, New Zealand’s attack has too many weapons for an Italian defence that tends to crack once the tempo rises. As in some of their recent lopsided meetings, New Zealand should hog the ball, set a suffocating pace and open up a massive gap, winning comfortably by at least 35 points.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
________
Before we start, a word on our picks
- What we publish on mathodds is analysis, nothing more. We offer an opinion, a read on the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport is what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a freak goal out of nowhere… and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when something looks “obvious”, it never really is. And yes, that means you can lose. In fact, sooner or later, you will.
- The smart move is to stay sensible. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Do not touch money you need to live. And above all: do not chase your losses, because that rarely ends well.
- A bet should stay a bit of fun, not a job and not a source of income. If you feel it is taking up too much space in your life, if it is getting under your skin or putting you under pressure, take a break. And if needed, speak to a specialist organisation. That is what they are there for.
- In the end, the responsibility is yours. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and never disappears, even with the best analysis in the world.
- Essential reminder: betting is forbidden to minors and must comply with the law in your country. Gambling can go bad quickly (money lost, family tension, addiction). Need Help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In the UK? Visit https://www.gambleaware.org/https://www.gambleaware.org/.
No commitment from us
Our picks are not a contract. They carry no legal weight. Plain and simple: you cannot use them to demand anything if a bet loses.
Changing information
A pick is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But by the time you read it, a team sheet can change, a player can get injured, the weather can turn… and the analysis can be out of date fast. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your role
Before you bet, just check that betting is legal where you are. If it is not, that is your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling first
We cannot say it enough: bet in moderation. If you struggle to stay in control, do not wait to get help. We cannot be responsible for compulsive or excessive use of the information published on the site.
Legal age
mathodds content is for adults only. By using this site, you confirm that you are old enough by law to place bets.
About the images
The images and logos on mathodds, including those of New Zealand and Italy linked to international rugby competitions, are used only to illustrate our articles. They do not mean we have any official link with a federation or rugby body, and we do not claim any rights over them.
Those rights belong to the original creators. If, despite our best efforts, any image causes a problem, contact us: it will be removed without delay.
Our only aim in using these images is to make the reading experience better. Nothing more. No commercial gain, no taking credit for someone else’s work.
Leave a Reply