Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm – WNBA Prediction – July 2, 2026

Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm : the offence could take over

Phoenix return to face Seattle looking to back up their recent win over the Storm. The Mercury are favourites on home floor, but beyond the final result, it is the points total that catches the eye. Both teams have been playing at a fast pace of late, and their recent attacking numbers suggest this one could once again turn into a high-scoring contest.

Phoenix deliver at home

The Mercury have been up and down with five wins from their last 10 outings, but they look a different side when they are at home. They are averaging more than 90 points there, clear evidence that they find more ways to score in front of their own fans.

Phoenix like to push the tempo early and are happy to pile up possessions when the shot is falling. That approach regularly produces open games, especially as their defence can be vulnerable against teams that can answer at the other end. The Mercury are allowing close to 86 points per game across their last 10, which often leaves the door open for a shootout.

That emphatic win over Seattle a few days ago will also have given this group plenty of belief as they look to reinforce their edge in this matchup.

Seattle will need to answer in attack

The Storm are in a tougher patch, with just two wins in their last 10 road games. Even so, Seattle still have an offence that can put points on the board, averaging close to 86 across their last 10 outings.

The real issue is at the other end. The Storm have been giving up more than 90 points on average lately, which regularly leaves them chasing the game. Against a Phoenix side that has been so strong at home, Seattle are likely to have to speed things up if they want to stay competitive rather than try to slow it down.

WNBA Prediction : Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm

Over 168.5 points in the game

All the signs point to an attacking contest. Phoenix are averaging more than 90 at home, Seattle can still score despite their defensive issues, and both teams are currently playing in games that are being run at a lively pace.

The previous meeting finished at a more modest total, but the situation is different this time. Seattle will have to take more risks if they want to keep up, which should create space and lead to quicker spells at both ends. With two defences that are regularly handing out chances, the 168.5 mark looks very reachable.

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