- 1 Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins: five straight Colts losses against a 1-7 team that’s 1-3 on the road
- 2 Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor’s eight touchdowns and Daniel Jones’ ten interceptions
- 3 Miami Dolphins: 15.8 points a game, 11 penalties against Detroit and no Zach Sieler
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins: five straight Colts losses against a 1-7 team that’s 1-3 on the road 
Caleb Downs intercepted Daniel Jones with 35 seconds left at Lucas Oil Stadium last Sunday, and Dallas held on 27-23. It was Indianapolis’ fifth straight defeat, and it dropped the Colts to 2-7, 13th in the AFC.
Miami are one place below them at 1-7. Their only win came 28-25 against the Jets on 25 October, and they’ve lost the two games since, 24-19 to New England and 19-9 to Detroit, both at Hard Rock Stadium.
The two teams meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday 15 November, kickoff 1:00pm ET on CBS. Indianapolis are 3.5-point favourites, with a moneyline of 1.52 against 2.60 for Miami, and the total is 38.5.
The Colts’ season has come apart off the field as well as on it. Chris Ballard was fired as GM on 19 October, the morning after a home loss to Tennessee, and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner were both traded before the end of the month.
We still think Indianapolis are the better team on Sunday. They’ve scored 184 points to Miami’s 126, they’ve been competitive at home against Dallas, and the Dolphins’ defense has just lost Zach Sieler for the season.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor’s eight touchdowns and Daniel Jones’ ten interceptions 
Jones finished 20 of 34 for 180 yards and a touchdown against Dallas. He has 1,722 yards, six touchdowns and ten interceptions on the season, and head coach Shane Steichen kept him as the starter after pulling him in the fourth quarter of a 42-7 loss in Jacksonville on 1 November.
Jonathan Taylor has 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 161 carries, though Dallas held him to 46 yards on 13 attempts and he lost a fumble that cost the Colts a scoring chance.
Ashton Dulin caught a short pass, beat two defenders and ran 55 yards for the touchdown that cut the deficit to 20-17 late in the third quarter, and Keenan Allen’s four catches lifted him to 1,095 career receptions and eighth on the NFL’s all-time list.
Tight end Tyler Warren leads the team with 38 catches for 275 yards. The offensive line is a concern, with tackle Jalen Travis doubtful because of a knee injury on top of the loss of Nelson in the trade.
Indianapolis have allowed 249 points, 27.7 a game. Adetomiwa Adebawore has four sacks and Akeem Davis-Gaither leads the team with 65 tackles, but Davis-Gaither is questionable with a knee problem, as are cornerback Justin Walley and safety A.J. Haulcy. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is also questionable with a groin injury.
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Miami Dolphins: 15.8 points a game, 11 penalties against Detroit and no Zach Sieler 
Miami’s defense played well against Detroit. The Lions entered averaging 29 points and 395.4 yards a game and finished with 271 yards, and the Dolphins sacked Jared Goff three times. Jake Bates still kicked four field goals and Detroit won by ten.
The Dolphins hurt themselves with 11 penalties, a missed field goal and a kickoff that landed short of the landing zone. They also completed a 46-yard pass on a fourth-quarter fake punt, punter Bradley Pinion to Kaytron Allen, and still finished with nine points.
Defensive tackle Zach Sieler tore his biceps on the first snap of that game, played the rest of it and is out for the season. Chop Robinson leads the team with four sacks and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has 79 tackles, while cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. has already been ruled out for Sunday’s trip.
Malik Willis has thrown for 1,396 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions, completing 121 of 208 passes. Ollie Gordon II leads the rushers with 463 yards and four touchdowns, while running back Jaylen Wright and tight end Will Kacmarek are both questionable with quadriceps injuries.
Miami have scored 126 points in eight games, 15.8 a game, and they’ve scored 10 or fewer in two of their last five games. Malik Washington leads the receivers with 33 catches for 350 yards and a single touchdown, and no Miami receiver has reached 400 yards.
Probable lineup Indianapolis Colts: QB Daniel Jones, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Keenan Allen, WR Ashton Dulin, TE Tyler Warren; defense led by Adetomiwa Adebawore and Akeem Davis-Gaither (questionable). Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: QB Malik Willis, RB Ollie Gordon II, WR Malik Washington; defense led by Chop Robinson and Jacob Rodriguez (Zach Sieler out for the season). Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
Our prediction: Indianapolis Colts to win (1.52)
The scoring gap is the core of our pick. Indianapolis average 20.4 points a game and Miami 15.8, and the Dolphins have scored 19 and 9 in their last two games, both at home.
Five straight losses and ten interceptions from Jones are real concerns, and we’d stay away from the 3.5-point spread for that reason. The Colts lost to Dallas by four and to Tennessee by six at home, which is the range we’d expect again, only with the result going their way against a weaker opponent.
Miami’s defense was their strength against Detroit, and Sieler’s injury removes one of its main pieces. Taylor’s eight rushing touchdowns against a front without him should be enough for the Colts to end the losing run.
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