- 1 New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers: three teams tied at 3-5 on top of the NFC South
- 2 New Orleans Saints: Shough’s late-game poise and a 1-4 record at the Superdome
- 3 Carolina Panthers: three straight losses and an interim defensive coordinator
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers: three teams tied at 3-5 on top of the NFC South 
Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are all 3-5, level at the top of the NFC South. The Panthers hold the division’s playoff spot on tiebreakers for now, and on Sunday 15 November they visit the Caesars Superdome, kickoff 1:00pm ET on Fox.
New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22 in overtime last Sunday, stopping a two-point conversion for their first home win of the season, while Carolina have lost three straight, the latest 26-21 at home to Denver.
Tyler Shough has a clean record in this series. He threw two touchdowns in a 17-7 win in Charlotte on 9 November 2025, his first NFL win, and led the drive for a 20-17 win in New Orleans on 14 December. Neither of those games produced more than 37 points.
The market expects more points this time: New Orleans are 2.5-point favourites at 1.93 with a moneyline of 1.74 and Carolina at 2.14, and the total sits at 48.5, 11.5 points above the higher of last season’s two meetings.
We think that number overstates both offenses, because the Saints went 54 minutes without a touchdown against Cleveland, and Carolina scored 13, 19 and 21 points in their three straight losses.
New Orleans Saints: Shough’s late-game poise and a 1-4 record at the Superdome 
Shough’s 15-yard touchdown to Juwan Johnson on the first possession of overtime decided the Browns game. He’s 204 of 308 for 1,986 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he’s also the team’s leading rusher with 162 yards and two scores on 34 carries.
New Orleans rushed 17 times for 18 yards in a game on 25 October and fired run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti after the bye, and against Cleveland the late go-ahead touchdown in regulation came from Audric Estime, newly reacquired, from two yards out.
Chris Olave leads the receivers with 56 catches for 734 yards. Rookie Jordyn Tyson, the eighth overall pick, made his debut after missing seven games with a hamstring injury and fumbled at the 2 after his first career reception, two plays after Barion Brown’s 52-yard catch had set up the chance, and receiver Mason Tipton is out with a leg injury.
Center Erik McCoy is doubtful with a biceps injury, which matters for an offense already struggling to run. Running back CJ Donaldson is questionable with a shoulder problem. The Saints have scored 185 points, 23.1 a game, and managed 13 and 10 in home defeats to Minnesota and Pittsburgh.
Chase Young has eight sacks, and Carl Granderson’s pressure forced the incomplete two-point attempt that won the Cleveland game. The Saints have still allowed 216 points, 27.0 a game, including 45 at home to Atlanta, and they’re 1-4 at the Superdome this season.
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Carolina Panthers: three straight losses and an interim defensive coordinator 
Bryce Young went 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against Denver. He found Tetairoa McMillan for a four-yard touchdown with 3:05 left, and Carolina’s final drive ended on a Nik Bonitto strip-sack with 1:24 to play.
Young has 2,197 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions on 186 of 308 passing. McMillan leads the receivers with 46 catches for 625 yards and three scores, and Darren Waller had eight catches against the Broncos.
The losing run started with a 43-13 home defeat to Tampa Bay, after which Carolina fired their defensive coordinator and Todd Wash took over on an interim basis. The Panthers then allowed 27 in Green Bay and 26 to Denver, and they’ve conceded 219 points this season, 27.4 a game.
Chuba Hubbard gives them balance with 619 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Before the three defeats, Carolina beat Detroit 32-26 and won 25-14 in Philadelphia, and they’re 2-2 on the road.
Linebacker Jaelan Phillips and cornerback Will Lee III are both questionable with hamstring injuries. Devin Lloyd leads the team with 54 tackles and Princely Umanmielen leads the team with three sacks, five fewer than Chase Young has on his own for New Orleans.
Probable lineup New Orleans Saints: QB Tyler Shough, RB Audric Estime, WR Chris Olave, WR Jordyn Tyson, TE Juwan Johnson; defense led by Chase Young, Carl Granderson and Pete Werner. Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young, RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Tetairoa McMillan, TE Darren Waller; defense led by Devin Lloyd and Princely Umanmielen. Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Our prediction: Under 48.5 points (1.95)
Shough’s two games against Carolina produced 24 and 37 points. The Saints’ home games against Minnesota and Pittsburgh this season finished 23-13 and 16-10, and their overtime win over Cleveland stood at 9-6 with 5:33 left in regulation before four late touchdowns took it to 45.
Both defenses concede more than 27 a game, which is the argument for the over, and the 45-24 loss to Atlanta shows the Saints can be run up. Without McCoy at center and with a run game that has needed its coordinator replaced, New Orleans are more likely to stall in the red zone than to trade touchdowns.
Shough’s record in close games against this opponent, two wins by 10 and 3 points, fits the same pattern. We expect a game in the low 40s, settled by one score, and we’re taking the under.
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