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Barcelona Women vs Arsenal Women Women's Champions League prediction

Barcelona Women vs Arsenal Women – Free Football Prediction – Nov 12

Barcelona Women vs Arsenal Women: six home wins from six, and the side that beat them in Lisbon

Barcelona have won all six of their home games this season and scored five or more in five of them. In the Women’s Champions League their home record now reads 33 wins, one draw and one defeat from 35 matches, and that single loss, 1-0 to Chelsea in the semi-final first leg of April 2024, is more than two and a half years old.

Arsenal come to the Spotify Camp Nou on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 17:45 UK time, as the last team to beat Barcelona in a European final. Stina Blackstenius came off the bench in the 67th minute in Lisbon on 24 May 2025, finished a pass from Beth Mead, and Arsenal held on for a 1-0 win despite facing 20 Barcelona shots. The clubs haven’t met since.

The game was moved from Wednesday to Thursday because of a general strike in Spain, and more than 20,000 are expected for matchday four of the league phase. The holders, who beat Lyon in last season’s final, top the table with nine points from three games, 19 goals scored and two conceded. Both of those goals came in the 5-2 opening win over Paris FC.

Arsenal have seven points. They beat HB Køge 1-0 with a 93rd-minute penalty, drew 2-2 in Paris after leading, and won 3-0 against Benfica at Meadow Park on 28 October, when Alessia Russo scored all three. Russo has scored Arsenal’s last seven goals in all competitions and nine in her last seven games.

We see a clear favourite here but a less clear scoreline. Barcelona’s last six wins have all come by three goals or more, yet they’ve conceded in two of their last three domestic matches, and Arsenal travel with the most in-form forward on the pitch.

Barcelona: 21 goals in five games, but Kerolin and Nazareth are out Barcelona Women

Barcelona have scored 21 times and conceded three across their last five matches. That run includes an 8-0 win at HB Køge on 29 October, with two goals from Claudia Pina, a 4-0 win at Badalona on 1 November and a 5-1 home win over Madrid CFF last weekend, which pushed their lead at the top of Liga F to four points.

The defeat in that period came at Real Sociedad on 18 October. Patri Guijarro scored in the first minute, then Cecilia Marcos and Ainhoa Marín turned the game before half-time and Barcelona lost 2-1. Madrid CFF also found a way through, Konan scoring in the 82nd minute with the game long settled.

The goals are spread around. Ewa Pajor has scored in eight successive Champions League appearances, Caroline Graham Hansen has scored in her last four league-phase games, and five different players scored against Madrid CFF: Brugts, Pajor, Carla Julià, Patri and Pina.

The injury list is longer than usual for this squad. Kerolin, who scored twice at Badalona, is out for around four weeks with a calf problem. Kika Nazareth has a thigh injury expected to keep her out for four to five weeks from 1 November, and Laia Aleixandri and Vicky López are also unavailable.

Aitana Bonmatí, Guijarro and Van Asten were on the bench against Madrid CFF and could all start. Bonmatí is still coming back from a fibula fracture, so we’d expect her minutes to be managed, while Irene Paredes trained with the group on Tuesday.

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Arsenal: Russo has scored the last seven, and every WSL win has come away Arsenal Women

Arsenal are sixth in the Women’s Super League after three wins, four draws and two defeats, 12 points behind leaders Manchester City. All three of those league wins have come away from home, so a trip to Barcelona doesn’t carry the same fear for Renée Slegers’ side that their table position might suggest.

They came from behind to win 2-1 at Tottenham on 24 October through Georgia Stanway and a Russo penalty. Last Sunday they won 2-1 at Anfield, with Russo scoring in the eighth minute and again just before half-time after Beata Olsson had equalised for Liverpool.

Home form has been the problem. Chasity Grant put Aston Villa ahead at the Emirates on 1 November and only a Russo goal in the 85th minute saved a point. Earlier in the season Arsenal drew 1-1 with Birmingham at home and lost 4-2 at Manchester City.

The current run is five games unbeaten in all competitions, with nine goals scored and four conceded. Russo is the reason they’ve kept scoring, and she’s done it with Mariona Caldentey out with a hamstring injury, Selina Cerci out with a knee problem and Michelle Agyemang recovering from an ACL tear. Katie Reid has an ankle injury that rules her out until Christmas.

Blackstenius, the scorer in Lisbon, is doubtful with an Achilles problem and Chloe Kelly is a doubt with a hamstring injury. Taylor Hinds went off late at Liverpool, which makes Ona Batlle’s return from a knock more useful, and Kim Little started at Anfield with Frida Maanum back as a substitute.

Probable lineup Barcelona Women: Coll; Schertenleib, Camará, Van Asten, Brugts; Serrajordi, Guijarro, Bonmatí; Graham Hansen, Pina, Pajor
Probable lineup Arsenal Women: Misa; Fox, Williamson, Catley, Batlle; Stanway, Cooney-Cross; Baum, Smith, Foord; Russo

Free Football Prediction: Barcelona Women vs Arsenal Women

Our prediction: Both teams to score (odds 1.57)

Barcelona should win, and the 1.27 on the home side reflects that. We’d rather take both teams to score at 1.57. Russo has scored in each of Arsenal’s last four matches and all of their last seven goals, and Barcelona have conceded in two of their last three Liga F games, at Real Sociedad and at home to Madrid CFF.

The argument against is Barcelona’s European defence: two goals conceded in three league-phase games, both on the opening night against Paris FC. Roma and HB Køge didn’t test them, though, and Arsenal will be playing a Barcelona side without Kerolin, Nazareth and Aleixandri, with Bonmatí unlikely to last the full 90 minutes.

Arsenal have scored in every match of their five-game unbeaten run and won both league trips in that spell. A home win with an Arsenal goal is the outcome we expect, something close to 3-1, and both teams to score covers that without relying on Barcelona’s winning margin.

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