- 1 Boston Bruins vs Minnesota Wild: 8-1-0 at TD Garden against the West’s stingiest goaltending
- 2 Boston Bruins: 3.72 goals a game, two goalies above .920
- 3 Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov’s 16 goals and a blue line waiting on Faber and Spurgeon
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Boston Bruins vs Minnesota Wild
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 11 About visuals
Boston Bruins vs Minnesota Wild: 8-1-0 at TD Garden against the West’s stingiest goaltending 
Jesper Wallstedt has started 16 of Minnesota’s 19 games, and his numbers are 11-2-3, a 1.99 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage. He’s the main reason the Wild sit at 12-3-4, and he’s the first problem Boston have to solve on Saturday 14 November at TD Garden, puck drop 7:00pm ET.
The Bruins have their own answer to that, and it’s their building. Boston are 8-1-0 at home and 13-4-1 overall, and they went into this week on a four-game winning run: 5-4 over Chicago, 3-2 over Vegas, 6-2 in Pittsburgh and 4-1 over Florida. The only defeat in that stretch of form came just before it, 4-1 in St. Louis at the end of October.
These teams have already met once this season. Minnesota won 4-1 on 4 October, a result that still gives the Wild the lead in the season series, though it was played in the first week of the schedule.
What makes this matchup tight is how alike the two defences look. Minnesota concede 2.26 goals per game and Boston 2.28, a gap of two hundredths. The difference sits at the other end of the ice, where the Bruins score 3.72 a game against the Wild’s 3.32.
Special teams pull the other way. Minnesota’s power play converts 26.9% of its chances, Boston’s only 18.3%, and the Bruins have spent 256 minutes in the penalty box this season against 170 for the Wild. Both penalty kills sit in the high 70s, 78.3% for Minnesota and 77.0% for Boston, so every extra penalty Boston take hands the visitors their best weapon.
Boston Bruins: 3.72 goals a game, two goalies above .920 
Boston don’t shoot a lot. They average 26.8 shots per game, fewer than Minnesota’s 29.7, and still score 3.72 goals a night. That’s a conversion rate close to 14%, and it has held across 18 games.
David Pastrnak sits at the centre of it. He leads the team with 8 goals and 16 assists for 24 points, and twice as many of his points have come as assists as goals.
The goaltending has been just as reliable. Jeremy Swayman is 9-3-1 with a 2.21 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage in 13 games, and Michael DiPietro has gone 4-1-0 with a .925 in his five appearances. Whichever of them starts, the Bruins aren’t dropping off in net.
The weak spot is volume against. Boston allow 28.3 shots per game, nearly three more than Minnesota, and the 256 penalty minutes are the highest figure of the two teams by a distance. Against a power play running at 26.9%, discipline matters more here than it did against Chicago or Florida.
The injury list is short. James Hagens is on injured reserve with a back problem and isn’t expected back before around 21 November. The rest of the group that won four straight should be available.
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Minnesota Wild: Kaprizov’s 16 goals and a blue line waiting on Faber and Spurgeon 
Kirill Kaprizov has 16 goals and 31 points in 19 games, both team highs, and Quinn Hughes leads Minnesota with 20 assists. Between them they drive a power play that has scored 18 times, seven more than Boston’s.
The concern is behind them. Brock Faber is on injured reserve with a skull injury and Jared Spurgeon with a lower-body injury, and both carry 14 November as their target return date. If either misses Saturday, the Wild lose minutes from the right side of their defence against the Bruins’ top line.
There’s also a goaltending question in the background. Filip Gustavsson is on injured reserve with a hip injury and isn’t due back until around 19 November, so the cover for Wallstedt is Calvin Pickard, who is 1-1-1 with a 3.60 goals-against average and an .855 save percentage. Minnesota have leaned on Wallstedt for 16 starts, and Saturday comes at the end of a week that also includes a trip to Toronto on Thursday.
The road record holds up well at 7-3-2, with a 5-1 win in Washington and a 4-2 win in Philadelphia in the last two weeks. Away from home, Minnesota have been as dangerous as anywhere.
The two most recent defeats both came at home and both by a single goal, 4-3 to the Islanders and 4-3 to Tampa Bay. In each case the Wild scored three, which is roughly their average, and gave up four, which is well above it.
Probable lineup Boston Bruins: Not announced at time of publication (Jeremy Swayman has made 13 of 18 starts)
Probable lineup Minnesota Wild: Not announced at time of publication (Jesper Wallstedt has made 16 of 19 starts)
Free NHL Prediction: Boston Bruins vs Minnesota Wild
Our prediction: Boston Bruins to win
I’d back Boston at home. An 8-1-0 record at TD Garden and four straight wins are the clearest form lines in this game, and the Bruins score almost half a goal a game more than Minnesota while conceding the same amount.
Wallstedt is the reason this isn’t a stronger lean. His .922 save percentage can win a game on its own, and the Wild’s 26.9% power play will punish a Boston side that takes penalties as often as this one. The Bruins have to stay out of the box to make the pick work.
The Minnesota blue line tips it. With Faber and Spurgeon both racing the 14 November date and Gustavsson out, the Wild arrive stretched in the two positions that have held their 2.26 goals-against average together, and Boston have two goalies above .920 to lean on.
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