- 1 Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: one win from League A, against the side that held them in Zenica
- 2 Sweden: ten Nations League games unbeaten and Gyokeres scoring in every window
- 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina: unbeaten in the group, but without Muharemovic and without Dzeko
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: one win from League A, against the side that held them in Zenica 
A Sweden win at Strawberry Arena on Saturday settles League B Group 4. Graham Potter’s side have 10 points from four games, Bosnia and Herzegovina have eight, and a three-point gap with one round left would put first place, and promotion to League A, out of Bosnia’s reach.
The match kicks off on Saturday 14 November at 19:45 UK time in Solna. Romania host Poland at the same time in the group’s other fixture, and the final round on 17 November sends Sweden to Wroclaw and brings Romania to Zenica.
We’d treat the table as an accurate picture of the group. Sweden have won three and drawn one, scoring seven and conceding three. Bosnia have won two and drawn two, with six scored and three against. Poland sit third on four points after a 6-0 win over Romania that flatters their overall campaign, and Romania haven’t taken a point.
The only blemish on Sweden’s record came in Zenica on 2 October. Viktor Gyokeres put them ahead around the hour, from a Bernhardsson pass, and Bosnia equalised through Kerim Alajbegovic on 80 minutes. That night also had two disallowed goals: an early Gyokeres effort ruled out for handball, and a late Edin Dzeko finish chalked off by VAR in what turned out to be his last international.
The prices reflect Sweden’s home record. Sweden are 1.50 to win, the draw is 4.20 and Bosnia are 6.00. Over 2.5 goals is 1.60 and both teams to score is 1.67, which tells us the market expects goals as well as a home win.
The other angle is Bosnia’s own target. Sergej Barbarez has said second place is the minimum and that he’s going to Sweden to win rather than to protect a draw. One more win secures second for Bosnia, because Poland can reach 10 points at most, so there’s no reason for them to sit back for 90 minutes.
Sweden: ten Nations League games unbeaten and Gyokeres scoring in every window 
Sweden haven’t lost in their last 10 Nations League matches, seven wins and three draws. The run has carried over from the previous campaign into this one, and it’s survived a summer that ended with a 3-0 defeat to France in the World Cup round of 32.
The four group results read 2-1 at home to Romania, 3-1 at home to Poland, 1-1 in Zenica and 1-0 in Bucharest. Gyokeres, Yasin Ayari and Benjamin Nygren scored against Poland. The win in Romania on 5 October was the tightest of the four, and it kept Sweden two points clear going into this window.
Gyokeres arrives with 25 goals this season and scored in both the Poland and Bosnia games. Alexander Isak is back in the squad after a thigh injury and has 18 goals of his own this season, which gives Potter two senior centre-forwards for the first time in this campaign.
Potter has also recalled Dejan Kulusevski, who returns after more than 17 months out with a knee injury, and Anthony Elanga. Kulusevski is unlikely to last 90 minutes on his first international appearance in that time, but he and Elanga give Sweden attacking options from the bench that they didn’t have in October.
There are gaps at the back. Isak Hien and Emil Holm aren’t in the squad, so Victor Lindelof and Gabriel Gudmundsson are likely to carry more of the defensive load. Sweden’s home competitive record of four wins and a draw in their last five suggests the defence has held up without them before.
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Bosnia and Herzegovina: unbeaten in the group, but without Muharemovic and without Dzeko 
Bosnia haven’t lost in four group games. They drew 0-0 in Poland on matchday one, won 4-2 in Romania three days later and then took four points from the October double-header with the 1-1 against Sweden and a 1-0 home win over Poland.
The 4-2 in Romania showed what this side can do going forward. Gigovic, Tarik Muharemovic, Haris Tabakovic and Mahmic scored, and Esmir Bajraktarevic set up two of them. Tabakovic now has six international goals and Ermedin Demirovic has four, so the goals no longer depend on one player.
That matters because Dzeko is gone. He announced in September that the Sweden game in October would be his last for Bosnia, and he isn’t in the November squad. Barbarez named 26 players on 27 October, with Tabakovic, Demirovic, Samed Bazdar and Lukic as the forwards.
The bigger absence is at centre-back. Muharemovic is suspended after picking up a yellow card too many, and he’s scored in this group as well as starting in defence. Barbarez says the other four centre-backs are fit, along with Amar Dedic, but Muharemovic’s absence leaves a less settled back line for the hardest away game of the group.
Bosnia’s away form across their last five reads draw, loss, loss, draw, win. Two of those defeats came at the World Cup, the last of them against the USA in the round of 32, and the only away win in that run came in Bucharest against the group’s bottom side.
Probable lineup Sweden: Johansson; Svensson, E. Smith, Lindelof, Gudmundsson; Bernhardsson, Karlstrom, Ayari, Nanasi, Zeneli; Gyokeres
Probable lineup Bosnia and Herzegovina: Hamzic; Dedic, Katic, Smajlovic, Kolasinac; Basic, Mahmic, Gigovic; Bajraktarevic, Demirovic, Alajbegovic
Free Football Prediction: Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our prediction: Sweden to win (1.50)
We back Sweden at 1.50. They’re unbeaten in 10 Nations League games, they’ve won four of their last five competitive matches at home, and they have Gyokeres and Isak available together for the first time this autumn. Bosnia’s 1-1 in Zenica came at home, with Dzeko on the pitch and Muharemovic in defence, and neither of those things applies on Saturday.
Bosnia have conceded only three goals in four games, and we don’t dismiss that record. Two of those games were against Poland, though, and Bosnia drew one and won the other 1-0. Against Sweden’s attack, without their suspended centre-back, we’d expect that record to come under more pressure than it has all campaign.
Barbarez’s stated plan to play for the win also helps the home side. An open Bosnia leaves space for Gyokeres to run into, and Sweden have scored in every game of this campaign. A Swedish win by one or two goals is the result we expect, and it would wrap up the group with a round to spare.
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