- 1 Netherlands vs Greece: 2-2 in Thessaloniki, eight points each at the top
- 2 Netherlands: De Jong is back, but they’ve conceded in every group game
- 3 Greece: unbeaten in four, with a first ever win over Germany in the bag
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Netherlands vs Greece
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Netherlands vs Greece: 2-2 in Thessaloniki, eight points each at the top 
Greece were two minutes from beating the Netherlands at Toumba on 1 October. Ioannidis scored on 22 minutes, Masouras added a second straight after half-time, and it took goals from Van Dijk on 58 minutes and Reijnders on 88 to rescue a 2-2 draw for Xavi’s side.
Five weeks later the return game is at the Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam on Friday 13 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time. It’s matchday five of League A Group 2, and the two sides arrive level on eight points.
The Netherlands sit first only because they’ve scored more: 7-5 against Greece’s 5-3. Germany are three points back on five and Serbia haven’t got a point from four games. A win on Friday takes either side to 11, and that would leave Germany needing to win both remaining matches just to stay in touch.
The top two go into the quarter-finals in March 2027. On Monday the Dutch travel to the Olympiastadion in Berlin to face Germany, while Greece host Serbia in Volos, which is the easier last game by some distance.
The long history belongs to the Netherlands. Twelve meetings, nine Dutch wins, two draws, and a single Greek victory, 2-1 in a friendly on Dutch soil in September 2016. The last two meetings before this autumn both went Holland’s way in the 2023 European Championship qualifiers, 3-0 at home and 1-0 in Greece.
Bookmakers have the Dutch at around 1.40, with the draw near 4.80 and Greece close to 6.13. I think that gap overrates the home side, and the way both teams have played this autumn is why.
Netherlands: De Jong is back, but they’ve conceded in every group game 
Xavi named 25 players on 6 November, and the headline is Frenkie de Jong. The Barcelona midfielder injured his knee badly at the World Cup and has only three club matches behind him since returning, so 90 minutes on Friday would be a surprise.
Gakpo and Brobbey are back after the injuries that kept them out in October, and Maatsen and Malen return too. Zirkzee, who scored the winner against Serbia on 72 minutes last month, didn’t make the squad, and Depay is missing with a fresh injury.
The absences hurt more in the middle and at the back. Gravenberch withdrew with a heel problem on 6 November, Aké has a hamstring injury and Frimpong is out with a muscle problem. That leaves Van Dijk, Van Hecke and Van de Ven as the central options, with Dumfries and Timber on the flanks.
The defensive record is the part I’m not convinced by. They’ve conceded in all four group matches: Nmecha’s goal in the 1-1 with Germany, Jović straight after half-time in Belgrade, two in Thessaloniki and Cvetković’s equaliser in the 2-1 win over Serbia. That’s five goals against in four games, the most of the three sides chasing the top two.
They keep finding late answers, though. Gakpo’s equaliser against Germany came in the 92nd minute, Reijnders scored on 88 at Toumba, and Meerdink scored both goals in the 2-1 win in Belgrade. They’re unbeaten in nine matches over 90 minutes, and their last exit came on penalties against Morocco in the World Cup round of 32.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Greece: unbeaten in four, with a first ever win over Germany in the bag 
Ivan Jovanović’s side opened the campaign with a 2-1 win in Belgrade, Tzolis equalising on 68 minutes and Douvikas winning it four minutes into stoppage time. Three days later Kourbelis’s deflected shot on 74 minutes beat Germany 1-0 in Augsburg, Greece’s first win over Germany in their history.
The home games have been harder. Greece drew 2-2 with the Netherlands and 0-0 with Germany, both in Thessaloniki, and Jovanović asked his players in public why they couldn’t produce the same results in Greece. Friday’s trip suits the side that has taken six points from six away from home.
He named 27 players on 6 November. Bakasetas is back after finding form at APOEL, and Koutsoupias has his first call-up at 25 after a strong start at Anderlecht. Chatzidiakos comes in for the injured Michailidis, while Mouzakitis has been sent to the under-21 play-off against Iceland.
Greece have scored in three of their four group games, and the goals have come from five different players: Tzolis, Douvikas, Kourbelis, Ioannidis and Masouras. Pavlidis and Ioannidis give Jovanović two options through the middle, and Tzolis carries most of the threat from wide.
Three goals conceded in four games is the second-best record in the group. Tzolakis has kept goal in the matches reported this autumn, and both clean sheets came against Germany. Their form before the Nations League was patchier: a 2-2 with Sweden and a 1-0 defeat to Italy in June friendlies.
Probable lineup Netherlands: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Greece: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Netherlands vs Greece
Our prediction: Both teams to score
The Netherlands have conceded in every one of their four group games, and they’ll be without Gravenberch, Aké and Frimpong on Friday. Greece have scored in three of four, including twice against this Dutch side five weeks ago, and they’ve done their best work away from home. I’d back goals at both ends before I’d back a winner.
The obvious risk is a cagey game, and Greece’s last outing finished 0-0 with Germany at Toumba. A draw would leave both sides on nine points with Germany able to reach eight in Belgrade, so neither can sit on it, and Greece have already scored late away from home, Douvikas winning it in stoppage time in Serbia.
A straight Dutch win sits at around 1.40, below the level we’d recommend, and a draw at 4.80 asks a lot of a side that keeps finding late goals at home. Both teams to score is our pick. The price wasn’t published at the time of writing, so check it is above 1.45 before placing anything.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Netherlands and Greece on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply