- 1 Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche: Ullmark’s .945 on the sidelines as Colorado’s 4.00 goals a game come to town
- 2 Ottawa Senators: 23 points for Stutzle, but a power play at 13%
- 3 Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon on 28 points, Lehkonen on 12 goals and Blackwood back at .901
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche: Ullmark’s .945 on the sidelines as Colorado’s 4.00 goals a game come to town 
Linus Ullmark has a .945 save percentage and a 1.33 goals-against average this season, and he hasn’t played in more than two weeks. A lower-body injury had cost him seven games by Saturday, and Travis Green would only say he’s close. Whether he starts on Thursday is the biggest single variable in this game.
Ottawa host Colorado at the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday 12 November, with puck drop at 7:00pm ET. It’s the second stop on a four-game Avalanche road trip that starts in Toronto on Tuesday and continues in Montreal on Saturday. Ottawa also play on Tuesday, at home to Washington.
The Senators are 11-6-1 with 23 points, fourth in the Atlantic. Colorado are 10-6-2 with 22 points and were fourth in the Central last week. Both records will move before Thursday, but the profiles are already clear enough.
Colorado score 4.00 goals per game, third in the NHL, and they finished the last homestand with a 4-0 shutout of Detroit on Saturday. Ottawa score 3.11 and convert just 13.0% of their power plays, 31st in the league.
Recent meetings have gone heavily one way. Colorado have won eight of the last ten against Ottawa, and nine of those ten games went over 6.5 goals. The Senators did win the most recent one, 5-2 in Ottawa on 28 January.
Ottawa Senators: 23 points for Stutzle, but a power play at 13% 
Ottawa’s last five games brought three wins: 2-1 at Buffalo on 4 November, 4-2 at home to Utah on Saturday and 5-1 at San Jose on 31 October. The two defeats on that California trip were wild ones, 6-5 in overtime at Los Angeles and 6-3 at Anaheim.
Stutzle carries the attack with nine goals and 14 assists in 18 games. Batherson has 18 points (nine goals), Pinto 14 and Giroux 11. Brady Tkachuk is no longer part of it: he was traded to Florida on 21 June 2026, with Ottawa taking the ninth and 25th picks of the 2026 draft plus future first- and second-round selections.
Ottawa’s power play has scored nine times on 69 chances, a 13.04% rate that only one team in the league sits below, and the penalty kill runs at 75.0%. Colorado scored three power-play goals against Detroit on Saturday alone, through Necas, MacKinnon and Makar. Ottawa allow 3.00 goals per game and generate 25.7 shots, numbers that leave little margin when the goaltending dips.
That’s where Ullmark’s absence shows. Ersson has stepped in at 3-3-1 with a 3.14 goals-against average and an .889 save percentage, and Johansson is 1-2 with a 4.60 goals-against average in his starts. Ullmark went 7-1 before his injury.
The injury list goes beyond the net. Ridly Greig was day to day with a lower-body problem going into the weekend, and Foegele, Eklund, MacDermid and Burakovsky were all listed out before Saturday’s win over Utah.
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Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon on 28 points, Lehkonen on 12 goals and Blackwood back at .901 
MacKinnon had nine goals and 18 assists through 17 games and added a power-play goal against Detroit on Saturday. Lehkonen leads the team with 12 goals, Necas has nine after scoring twice on Saturday, and Makar has five goals and 14 assists from defence.
The Avalanche have scored five or more in four of their last ten games: 5-2 against New Jersey, Calgary and Chicago, plus 6-3 against Tampa Bay. Their power play runs at 23.3%, more than ten points better than Ottawa’s.
The defence has been less reliable. Colorado lost 7-2 at Columbus on 3 November and 6-2 at Nashville on 25 October, and they’ve dropped one-goal games at Philadelphia, New Jersey and at home to Nashville. They concede just over three goals per game and their penalty kill sits at 78.2%.
Blackwood steadied things with a 27-save shutout of Detroit. He’s 9-3-1 with a 2.60 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage, while Wedgewood has struggled at 1-3-1 and .867. Blackwood started the 5-2 win in Chicago and the Detroit shutout, and he’s likely to get one of the two games in Toronto and Ottawa.
Josh Manson (lower body) and Zachary L’Heureux (upper body) were out for Saturday’s game, and Colorado otherwise dressed a full lineup. The road record over the last month is mixed, with defeats in Philadelphia, New Jersey, Nashville and Columbus and a win in Chicago.
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication. Ersson is the probable starter unless Ullmark is cleared.
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication. Blackwood or Wedgewood in goal depending on Tuesday’s starter in Toronto.
Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche
Our prediction: Colorado Avalanche to win (moneyline)
We’re backing Colorado on the strength of their attack against a side that can’t punish them on the power play. The Avalanche score nearly a goal more per game than Ottawa, MacKinnon and Lehkonen have 22 goals between them, and they’ve won eight of the last ten meetings.
A fit Ullmark would change the picture, and Colorado’s road form has been patchy. We’ve priced that in. Even with Ullmark the Senators’ 13% power play gives them few easy goals, and without him Ersson’s .889 is a soft spot against an attack averaging 30.6 shots a night.
Colorado won 8-2 the last time these teams met in Denver and have scored four or more in five of their last ten games. Ottawa have conceded six in two of their last six. We expect the Avalanche to win this in regulation or after it, and we’d take the moneyline over the puck line given how many of Ottawa’s recent games have been close.
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