- 1 New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: a 27-27 tie and a field goal that was never kicked
- 2 New York Giants: McCarthy’s 49 passes, Nabers’ 605 yards and a kicker who went 2 of 5
- 3 Washington Commanders: Daniels in a brace, no McLaurin and 26 points allowed a game
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: a 27-27 tie and a field goal that was never kicked 
The last time these teams met, on 11 October at Northwest Stadium, nobody won. Washington led 27-13 with 11:05 to play, the Giants scored twice to draw level, and overtime ended 27-27 when Tremaine Edmunds sacked Jayden Daniels with 12 seconds left, no timeouts and the Commanders parked at the New York 24. The 42-yard field goal never happened, and Dan Quinn took the blame for the call.
The rematch is Thursday Night Football on 12 November at MetLife Stadium, kick-off 8:15pm ET. New York go into Week 9 at 4-2-1 and top of the NFC East. Washington are 2-4-1 and third.
Both teams play on Sunday at 1:00pm ET, the Giants in Philadelphia and the Commanders at home to the Rams, so each gets three days to turn round. Neither side gains anything from the calendar.
Almost everything around the Giants’ offence has changed since October. Jameis Winston threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns in that tie and is now the backup. J.J. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota on 28 September for a 2027 fifth-round pick after Jaxson Dart’s knee surgery, took the job with a 27-21 overtime win in Houston on 25 October.
Washington have changed too, mostly for the worse. Terry McLaurin is out for the season. Daron Payne (Jones fracture) and Javon Kinlaw (MCL) went on injured reserve on 3 November, both done for the year, and Laremy Tunsil is still missing at left tackle, with Brandon Coleman in his place.
The early market makes the Giants narrow favourites: 1.5 points on the spread, around 1.85 on the moneyline and a total of 45.5. Those numbers were set before Sunday, and I’d still be on the home side whatever happens in Week 9.
New York Giants: McCarthy’s 49 passes, Nabers’ 605 yards and a kicker who went 2 of 5 
McCarthy has thrown 49 passes for the Giants and completed 31 of them for 495 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Almost all of it came in two outings: 11 of 21 for 243 yards off the bench against New Orleans on 18 October, then 20 of 28 for 252 yards in Houston.
The Houston start showed what New York want from him. He was sacked three times, threw nothing to the other side and won in overtime on the road. He kept the job through the bye and is listed to start in Philadelphia on Sunday.
Malik Nabers is the reason the passing game works. He has 48 catches for 605 yards and two touchdowns in seven games, and it was his 17-yard touchdown with 1:43 left that tied the October game. He’s on the injury report with a knee problem but has practised fully, as has left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin).
The backfield is less settled. Cam Skattebo leads the team with 418 yards on 98 carries, but a hamstring left him doubtful for Philadelphia, and a Thursday game four days later gives him little time to recover.
Defensively, Arvell Reese has 56 tackles and Jevon Holland has three interceptions. New York have conceded 161 points in seven games, 23.0 a game, and scored 163.
The worry is the kicking. Dominic Zvada made from 51 and 56 yards in Landover but missed from 50, 57 and 46, the last of those in overtime. With a reliable kicker, I think the Giants leave that game 5-1-1.
Against the spread, New York are 5-2. Two of their seven games have gone to overtime, and they won the one in Houston.
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Washington Commanders: Daniels in a brace, no McLaurin and 26 points allowed a game 
Daniels dislocated his left elbow at Dallas in Week 2 and missed two games. He came back against the Giants in a brace, went 17 of 25 for 199 yards and ran nine times for 103, with touchdown runs of 38 and 26 yards. It was Washington’s best attacking display of the season, and they still didn’t win.
His season line reads 976 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 213 rushing yards at 8.5 a carry. An Eagles hit on 1 November knocked the wind out of him; he stayed in and was a full participant in practice last week, with Marcus Mariota behind him.
The receivers around him are thin. McLaurin is gone for the year, and Treylon Burks (foot) and Dyami Brown (calf) were both ruled out for the Rams game. Stefon Diggs has five touchdown catches, and Antonio Williams leads the team with only 259 receiving yards.
The defence is the bigger concern. Washington have allowed 182 points in seven games, 26.0 a game, and rank 28th against the pass at 243.0 yards a game. In the space of a week they’ve lost Payne, who forced the overtime fumble in October, and Kinlaw from the interior, and Jer’Zhan Newton (pectoral) was questionable for Sunday.
Odafe Oweh leads the pass rush with four sacks, Sonny Styles has 54 tackles and Rasul Douglas has two interceptions. Against the run they’re 12th, allowing 99.1 yards a game, which pushes opponents towards the air, where they’ve struggled.
The 27-10 win over Philadelphia on 1 November, after trailing 10-0, was their most complete performance. The Eagles were 2-6 when it happened, and in the three games before it Washington lost 30-13 to Indianapolis, tied with the Giants and lost 23-17 in San Francisco.
Probable lineup New York Giants: QB J.J. McCarthy, RB Cam Skattebo (doubtful), WR Malik Nabers, LT Andrew Thomas, LB Arvell Reese, S Jevon Holland, K Dominic Zvada. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Antonio Williams, LT Brandon Coleman, EDGE Odafe Oweh, LB Sonny Styles, CB Rasul Douglas. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Our prediction: New York Giants to win (moneyline, around 1.85)
I’m backing the Giants at home. Washington rank 28th against the pass and have just lost Payne and Kinlaw from the middle of the line, which gives McCarthy cleaner pockets than he had in Houston and gives Nabers the same secondary he scored the tying touchdown against in October.
Daniels is the reason the price isn’t shorter. He ran for 103 yards in the first meeting and can win a game on his own legs. But he’s doing it without McLaurin, with two more receivers hurt and a backup left tackle, on a short week after hosting the Rams.
The spread is only 1.5 points, so the moneyline is the cleaner way in. Prices were set before Week 9, so check the number after Sunday’s results before placing anything.
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