- 1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild: the West leaders against a Leafs team that has lost four of five
- 2 Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews has 27 points, but the goals against keep piling up
- 3 Minnesota Wild: 2.17 goals against a game and Kaprizov on 16 goals
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild: the West leaders against a Leafs team that has lost four of five 
Minnesota lead the Western Conference at 12-3-4 and have taken points from eight straight games. Toronto are 8-8-2, second-last in the Atlantic Division, and have lost four of their last five.
The Wild visit Scotiabank Arena on Thursday 12 November, 7:00pm ET. It’s the fifth game of a six-game homestand for the Leafs, and it hasn’t gone well so far: a 3-2 loss to Utah on 3 November and a 4-2 loss to Montreal on 7 November.
Minnesota allow 2.17 goals per game through 17 games and kill penalties at 81.5%. Kirill Kaprizov has 16 goals, the most in the league, and the Wild are 10-0-3 when they score first.
Toronto’s special teams are the counterweight. The Leafs convert 28.8% of their power plays and kill 88.1% of penalties. William Nylander’s power-play goal against Montreal was the 85th of his career, level with John Tavares for fifth in franchise history.
Minnesota play in Montreal on Tuesday and have Wednesday off. Last season’s series split 1-1, with the Wild winning 6-3 in Toronto on 19 January and the Leafs replying 4-2 in St. Paul on 15 March.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews has 27 points, but the goals against keep piling up 
Auston Matthews leads Toronto with 11 goals and 16 assists, and Nylander has 11 goals and 11 assists. The scoring is there: 3.65 goals per game, a better rate than Minnesota’s 3.33.
The other end is the issue. The Leafs concede 3.24 goals per game. Sergei Bobrovsky, who signed for three years on 1 July, has a save percentage of .885 to .889 depending on the date of the figures. Anthony Stolarz is 5-1-0 with a .910 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average, and the starter for Thursday hasn’t been named.
The injury list is getting longer. Morgan Rielly (0 goals, 12 assists) left Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury and didn’t return, and coach Jim Hiller had no update. Defenceman Nick Blankenburg is on injured reserve, and Kirill Marchenko, who had six goals and 14 points in 14 games, has been week-to-week with a knee injury since 28 October.
Tavares is back. He returned against Montreal after missing nine games and played on the wing. Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick in June, was benched for a turnover that led to Chris Kreider’s breakaway goal, then scored when he came back on.
Hiller, hired on 17 June, has a team that’s 4-5-1 at home. Against Montreal the Leafs won 38% of faceoffs and went 1 for 4 on the power play.
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Minnesota Wild: 2.17 goals against a game and Kaprizov on 16 goals 
Kaprizov’s 16 goals lead the NHL. Against San Jose on 6 November he scored once and added three assists in a 4-1 win, a game in which Minnesota became the fastest franchise to reach 1,000 regular-season wins.
Jesper Wallstedt’s figures match the team’s defensive record: a .920 save percentage and a 2.06 goals-against average. Filip Gustavsson (hip) isn’t expected back until around 19 November. Calvin Pickard made 30 saves on Saturday.
That Saturday game was a warning. Minnesota led Tampa Bay 3-1 in the third period, gave up three power-play goals and lost 4-3 when Nikita Kucherov scored in overtime. Tampa Bay outshot them 34-22, on the second night of a back-to-back for the Wild.
The defence could get help. Brock Faber (skull injury) and Jared Spurgeon (lower body) were both targeting a return around 10 November. Michael McCarron left the San Jose game with an undisclosed injury and was day-to-day.
Minnesota are 7-3-2 on the road, with a power play running at 26.6%. Maxim Shabanov, who signed a one-year deal on 2 July, scored twice against Tampa Bay.
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Minnesota Wild: Based on the 7 November lines: Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, Boldy; Coleman, McCarron, Brink; Shabanov, Yurov, Trenin; Sturm, Hartman, Pitlick. Defence: Hughes-Brodin, Maatta-Bogosian, Kiersted-Spacek. Goaltender: Wallstedt expected
Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild
Our prediction: Minnesota Wild to win (moneyline)
We’re taking Minnesota. The Wild concede 2.17 goals a game and Toronto concede 3.24, and that gap matters more to us than the Leafs’ better power play. Minnesota have been beaten in regulation three times all season.
The Toronto injury list points the same way. Losing Rielly and Blankenburg on the blue line and Marchenko up front leaves the Leafs thinner against a team with the league’s leading goal scorer. We’d accept that Toronto’s 88.1% penalty kill can keep it close if the Wild take penalties, as they did against Tampa Bay.
No price was posted at the time of writing. We’d want the Wild at evens or better, and we’d check whether Wallstedt starts before placing the bet.
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