- 1 Czechia vs Spain: two goals in four games against the world champions’ 42-match unbeaten run
- 2 Czechia: no win in seven, and without Karabec, Šulc and a single Sparta player
- 3 Spain: Yamal’s four goals and Zubimendi in for Rodri
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Czechia vs Spain
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Czechia vs Spain: two goals in four games against the world champions’ 42-match unbeaten run 
Czechia have scored two goals in four Nations League games this autumn, and the player who scored one of them, Adam Karabec, is injured. They’ve conceded ten, they have no points, and they haven’t won in seven internationals.
Spain arrive in Prague with four wins from four, 12 points and a place in the quarter-finals already secured. They’re the world champions, after beating Argentina 1-0 in the final at MetLife Stadium in July with an extra-time goal from Ferran Torres, and they were unbeaten in 42 straight games after their 2-1 win in Split on 6 October.
The match is on Thursday 12 November at Stadion Letná, kick-off 19:45 UK time, on matchday five of League A, Group 3. Czechia then travel to Osijek to face Croatia on Sunday, and that game may matter more to them: Croatia have three points, and the bottom side in the group is relegated to League B.
The gap between the sides is wide enough that Spain’s win is priced at about 1.15, which isn’t a bet we’d take. The margin is the more interesting question. Spain’s four group wins came by scores of 3-2, 4-1, 3-1 and 2-1, so only one of them was by three goals or more.
We think Spain win in Prague. We also think the handicap market has overrated how comfortably they’ll do it, especially with Rodri and Dani Olmo missing and Luis de la Fuente rotating a squad that has nothing left to prove in this group.
Czechia: no win in seven, and without Karabec, Šulc and a single Sparta player 
Santi Denia’s side has lost every game in this group. They opened with a 2-1 home defeat to Croatia on 26 September, when Karabec’s goal on 54 minutes briefly levelled Luka Modrić’s opener.
Three days later England won 2-0 in Prague, and Pavel Šulc’s red card after 23 minutes left Czechia with ten men for most of the game. They then lost 3-1 in Oviedo on 3 October, when Jiří Sláma scored their goal, and 3-0 at Wembley on 6 October.
The World Cup in June went much the same way. Czechia lost 2-1 to South Korea, drew 1-1 with South Africa in Atlanta and lost 3-0 to Mexico. Their last seven internationals have brought one draw and six defeats.
The injury list is long: Robin Hranáč, Ondřej Kričfaluši, Karabec, Ondřej Lingr, Matěj Ryneš and Šulc are all out, and Tomáš Chorý is missing for disciplinary reasons. Denia hasn’t picked a single Sparta Prague player, the first time that’s happened since November 2022, and Adam Hložek is in the squad despite muscle problems.
There’s some help returning. Tomáš Souček is back from injury, and Idris Hopi, an 18-year-old forward from Teplice, and David Kozel could both make their debuts. Czechia have also held Spain before in this city: the sides drew 2-2 in Prague in the Nations League in June 2022, with Iñigo Martínez equalising in the 90th minute.
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Spain: Yamal’s four goals and Zubimendi in for Rodri 
Spain’s campaign started with a 3-2 win at Wembley on 26 September. Lamine Yamal scored after two minutes, England led at half-time, and Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal turned it around. Harry Kane hit the bar with a penalty.
They then beat Croatia 4-1 in Seville and Czechia 3-1 in Oviedo, with Yamal scoring in both games, before Mikel Merino’s goals on 61 and 88 minutes won it 2-1 in Split. Yamal has four goals in the group and Merino three.
Rodri, the captain, has a right hamstring injury and will be out for about a month. Dani Olmo has an adductor injury and Eric García is still recovering. Martín Zubimendi is the expected replacement in front of the back four, and Pedri, Fabián Ruiz and Merino are all in the squad.
The defence has changed too. Of the four who started against Czechia in October, only Aymeric Laporte is in this squad. Pau Cubarsí, Dean Huijsen, Marc Pubill, Pedro Porro, Marc Cucurella and the uncapped Jacobo Ramón are the options, and Porro returns after missing the last window with a physical issue.
De la Fuente has a home game against England on Sunday that is likely to decide first place in the group. Spain lead England by three points, and that game is the one with something left on it, which makes some rotation in Prague likely.
Probable lineup Czechia: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Spain: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Czechia vs Spain
Our prediction: Czechia +2.5 handicap (1.54)
Spain’s win at 1.15 isn’t worth a stake, and the handicap is where we’d go. Backing Czechia +2.5 at 1.54 means Spain can win by one or two goals and the bet still lands. In four group games, Spain have won by three or more only once, 4-1 at home to Croatia.
Spain are without Rodri and Olmo, and Sunday’s game against England is the one that decides the group. Czechia have only scored twice, but they’ve lost by more than two goals once in this campaign, at Wembley, and they’re at home.
The last time Spain played in Prague, in June 2022, it finished 2-2. We expect Spain to win this one, by a margin closer to their 3-1 in Oviedo than to a rout, and we’re backing Czechia +2.5 at 1.54.
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