- 1 New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets: 11.8 steals a night against an offense shooting 42.8%
- 2 New Orleans Pelicans: the third-best offense in the league and a defense ranked 25th
- 3 Brooklyn Nets: Porter and Randle at 21 a night, and 106.6 points as a team
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets: 11.8 steals a night against an offense shooting 42.8% 
New Orleans is averaging 11.8 steals a game, the most in the NBA, and Zion Williamson accounts for 2.5 of them on his own. That number frames Wednesday 11 November at the Smoothie King Center, tip-off 8:00pm ET, because the visiting Nets are 26th in the league in turnovers and 28th in field-goal percentage.
The Pelicans come home 4-5 after a week that went from four straight wins to a 115-109 loss to Minnesota on Friday. That streak included two overtime wins, 135-134 in Memphis and 120-113 against Utah, and blowouts of Sacramento and Atlanta before that. The Timberwolves ended it by winning the fourth quarter 38-30.
Brooklyn is 2-6 and 13th in the East. The Nets have beaten Indiana 98-90 on the road and Charlotte 114-104 at Barclays Center, and their other six games have all been losses, including a 125-124 overtime defeat in Boston on a buzzer-beater.
Both teams reach Wednesday with miles on their legs, and the order matters. Brooklyn plays in Atlanta on Saturday and in Dallas on Sunday, then gets two full days off before New Orleans, the third stop on a four-game trip. The Pelicans play the Clippers on Sunday and Golden State on Monday, a back-to-back on the West Coast, and fly home with one day to recover.
The season series last year split 1-1. Brooklyn won 119-101 at home on 6 December 2025, and New Orleans took the return 116-113 at the Smoothie King Center on 14 January. No line had been posted for this game at the time of writing.
New Orleans Pelicans: the third-best offense in the league and a defense ranked 25th 
The Pelicans score 120.2 points a game, third in the NBA, on 48.4% shooting, which ranks fourth. They play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league at 102.6 possessions, and the steals are a big part of why: a lot of their offense starts in the open floor before the opponent has set up.
The half-court defense hasn’t kept pace. New Orleans allows 118.8 points a game, 25th in the league, and three of its four recent wins needed 120 points or more. The two overtime games, against Memphis and Utah, came after the Pelicans let leads get away in regulation.
Williamson leads the team at 21.5 points and 5.1 rebounds, and Dejounte Murray has added 18.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists in his five games. Against Minnesota, Williamson took only 10 shots and finished with 13 points and eight rebounds, while Jeremiah Fears led the way with 24 and Karlo Matković had 18.
The rest of the rotation has depth. Saddiq Bey is scoring 16.4 a game, Trey Murphy III 14.9, Fears 13.6 with 4.5 assists and Derik Queen 13.4 with 7.9 rebounds. Murphy is playing through bilateral patella tendinopathy and was available on Friday, and Herb Jones has moved to the bench behind a starting group of Murray, Fears, Murphy, Williamson and Matković.
The one real gap is at center. Yves Missi has been out since 24 October with a bone bruise in his left knee and has no timeline, which is why Matković and Queen have taken his minutes. The three-point shooting, at 32.7% and 25th in the league, is the other weak spot.
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Brooklyn Nets: Porter and Randle at 21 a night, and 106.6 points as a team 
Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle are both scoring 21 a game, Porter at 21.4 with 7.4 rebounds and Randle at 21.0 with 7.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists. Behind them, though, Brooklyn’s offense thins out fast, and the team averages 106.6 points, 28th in the league.
The efficiency numbers line up with that. Brooklyn’s offensive rating of 106.2 ranks 27th, and its 42.8% shooting from the field is 28th. The three-point rate is more respectable at 35.3%, which puts the Nets around the middle of the league, but they don’t get to the rim often enough to make up the difference.
The best night of the season came on Wednesday against Charlotte. Porter had 26 points and 10 rebounds, Randle 22, rookie Mikel Brown Jr. 18 and Nolan Traoré 16, and the Nets shot 51% from the field and 38% from three after trailing by seven at halftime. Two nights earlier they’d scored 90 in a 103-90 loss to the Knicks.
The defense under Jordi Fernández has held up better than the offense. Brooklyn allows 112.9 points a game with a defensive rating of 112.6, 19th in the league, and its slow pace of 99.0 possessions helps keep scores down. That style runs straight into a Pelicans team that wants to play fast.
Injuries are trimming the guard rotation. Egor Demin is out with a bone bruise in his right leg and was ruled out again for Saturday, while Noah Clowney is day to day after leaving the Charlotte game with right knee soreness. Brown Jr., Traoré and Moritz Wagner, who scores 10.4 a game, are taking the extra minutes.
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Karlo Matković
Probable lineup Brooklyn Nets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets
Our prediction: New Orleans Pelicans to win by 6 points or more (handicap)
The matchup that decides this game is the Pelicans’ hands against Brooklyn’s ball security. New Orleans leads the league in steals, the Nets are 26th in turnovers, and a team scoring 106.6 points can’t afford to hand over easy baskets to an offense putting up 120.2.
The obvious risk is fatigue. New Orleans plays Sunday in Los Angeles and Monday in San Francisco, while Brooklyn gets two days off after Dallas. I think the home floor and one day’s rest are enough to cancel that out, and the Pelicans’ four-game run before Friday showed they can win games that get close late.
A straight win price would likely sit too short to be worth it, so I’d take New Orleans on a handicap of around six points. No line had been published at the time of writing, so check that the price is at 1.45 or higher before placing it.
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