- 1 Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto: ten from ten, and a home side that hasn’t beaten Porto here since 2016
- 2 Vitoria Guimaraes: three clean sheets in a row, but ten league goals all season
- 3 FC Porto: four goals conceded in ten league games under Farioli
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto: ten from ten, and a home side that hasn’t beaten Porto here since 2016 
Porto beat Napoli 4-1 at the Dragao on Wednesday night. Jan Bednarek scored after 11 minutes, Scott McTominay equalised before the break, and Gabri Veiga, Jakub Kiwior and a Samu penalty settled it in the last 20 minutes.
Four days later they go to Guimaraes for the 11th round of the Liga Portugal, on Sunday 8 November at 18:00 UK time. They’ve won all ten league games so far, scored 25 and conceded four, and they lead Benfica by five points.
Vitoria are 13th with nine points. They’ve won two league games, drawn three and lost five, and half of their ten goals came in a single 5-0 win over Maritimo on 23 October.
The last time Vitoria beat Porto at the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques was 17 January 2016, a 1-0 win. They did win 3-1 at the Dragao in the Taça da Liga quarter-final in December 2025 and went on to lift the trophy, but the league meeting here in January ended 1-0 to Porto through an Alan Varela penalty on 85 minutes.
Porto haven’t drawn a game in any competition this season. Sixteen matches, 13 wins, three defeats. That pattern makes the 1X2 market simpler than usual, and it’s where I’ll be looking.
The away allocation sold out on 5 November. David Silva referees.
Vitoria Guimaraes: three clean sheets in a row, but ten league goals all season 
Tiago Margarido’s side haven’t conceded in three games. They beat Maritimo 5-0, won 1-0 at Lamelas in the Taça de Portugal and drew 0-0 at Gil Vicente on 2 November.
That draw in Barcelos was their first away point of the season. Margarido called the draw a fair result, and it was their third straight game without conceding.
The clean sheets look better than the opposition behind them. Maritimo, Lamelas and Gil Vicente aren’t Porto, and the one meeting with a title contender so far ended 2-0 at Benfica on 11 October.
Without the Maritimo game, Vitoria have scored five league goals in nine matches. They lost 2-1 at Academico de Viseu on 12 September and drew 1-1 with Moreirense at home eight days later, and goals have been hard to find since.
They also foul more than anyone in the division, 16.1 times a game, and pick up 2.7 cards per match. Against a Porto side that moves the ball quickly through Veiga, Pepe and Borja Sainz, that physical approach carries a real card risk.
The head-to-head offers little comfort. Across 47 official meetings Vitoria have won four, and of the last nine Porto have won six, Vitoria two and one has been drawn. Both Vitoria wins in that run came at the Dragao.
Margarido’s probable side keeps a back four of Strata, Sidibe, Borevkovic and Mendes, with Jakupovic leading the line.
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FC Porto: four goals conceded in ten league games under Farioli 
Porto have kept clean sheets in 60% of their league games and conceded fewer than anyone in Portugal. Francesco Farioli’s side rarely give up chances, and the four goals against them in ten league matches is the number that separates them from Benfica.
The attack has kept pace. They beat Estoril 4-0 on 31 October, with Gabri Veiga scoring one and setting up another, and they won 1-0 at Gil Vicente a week earlier. Veiga then added the second goal against Napoli.
The defeats have all come in other competitions. PSV won 1-0 at the Dragao in the Champions League on 20 October, but domestically Porto haven’t dropped a single point.
Oskar Pietuszewski trained without restrictions on Friday and is available. Chris Smalling is still in treatment, Vasco Sousa only did conditioned work, and William Gomes is a doubt with a right ankle sprain.
Fatigue is the obvious question after Napoli. Farioli started Martim Fernandes, Andre Silva and Borja Sainz on Wednesday, and the probable side for Sunday brings in Sanusi at left-back and Aghehowa up front.
In all competitions Porto have scored 33 and conceded 11 in 16 games. In the league alone it’s 25 scored and four conceded, which is 2.5 goals a game at one end and 0.4 at the other.
Porto’s record at this ground backs them up. Before January’s 1-0, they’d won ten and drawn one of their previous 11 competitive visits to Guimaraes, with seven clean sheets.
Probable lineup Vitoria Guimaraes: Furtado; Strata, Sidibe, Borevkovic, Mendes; Nogueira, Mukendi, Samu; Camara, Jakupovic, Silva
Probable lineup FC Porto: Diogo Costa; Alberto Costa, Bednarek, Kiwior, Sanusi; Rosario, Froholdt; Pepe, Veiga, Sainz; Aghehowa
Free Football Prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto
Our prediction: FC Porto to win (1.67)
Porto have won every league game, they don’t draw, and Vitoria haven’t beaten them at this ground since January 2016. Vitoria’s three clean sheets came against Maritimo, a cup side from the lower leagues and Gil Vicente.
The fair worry is the four-day turnaround after Napoli. Porto played PSV and then won 1-0 at Gil Vicente four days later, so they’ve already shown they can grind out an away league win after a European night.
I’d take the 1.67 on the away win. Vitoria have five league goals outside one afternoon against Maritimo, and that won’t trouble the best defence in the country.
Both teams to score is priced at 1.83 and over 2.5 goals at 1.85, but Porto have conceded four times in ten league games and Vitoria rarely score. I’d leave those markets alone and stick with the result.
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