- 1 Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild: 38 goals allowed in 17 games, against a home team that just lost a 4-0 lead
- 2 Montreal Canadiens: six wins in seven, but seven games already beyond regulation
- 3 Minnesota Wild: 4-0-1 at home, 7-3-2 on the road and points in six straight
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild: 38 goals allowed in 17 games, against a home team that just lost a 4-0 lead 
Minnesota has allowed 38 goals in 17 games, tied with Dallas for the fewest in the NHL through Thursday’s games. The Wild take that defense to Bell Centre on Tuesday 10 November, with puck drop at 7:00pm ET, for the first of their two meetings with Montreal this season.
We’d frame this game around what the Canadiens do late in periods. On Tuesday 3 November they led Winnipeg 4-0 with 2:39 left in the third and lost 5-4 in overtime, the latest four-goal comeback in NHL history. Two nights later they trailed Utah 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3, and still won 5-4 in overtime.
That second game brought Nick Suzuki back. The captain had missed six games with an upper-body injury and returned with a goal and two assists. Cole Caufield ended it 30 seconds into overtime, his 15th career overtime goal in 384 games, which made him the fastest player in league history to reach that number.
Minnesota’s run has been quieter and longer. The Wild have points in six straight games (5-0-1), they won 5-1 in Washington on 1 November and 4-2 in Philadelphia two nights later, and they’re 7-3-2 away from home. They sit first in the Central with 25 points.
Both teams play twice more before Tuesday. Montreal visits Toronto on Saturday, while Minnesota hosts San Jose on Friday and Tampa Bay on Saturday before flying east. The records and figures below are taken as they stood on Friday morning, so we’ll treat the weekend as a footnote rather than the main story.
Montreal Canadiens: six wins in seven, but seven games already beyond regulation 
Montreal is 10-3-3 and second in the Atlantic with 23 points, two behind Boston. The goal difference is +6, with 57 scored and 51 allowed, and that’s a much thinner margin than Boston’s +24 or Tampa Bay’s +10.
Overtime explains part of the gap. Seven of Montreal’s 16 games have gone past 60 minutes, and the Canadiens are 4-3 in them. Six of their ten wins came in regulation, which is the number we’d weigh most heavily against a team like Minnesota.
Suzuki’s return changes the top of the lineup. He scored from the left post off a cross-ice pass from Juraj Slafkovsky on Thursday, and the depth that covered his absence showed up again: Kirby Dach and Arber Xhekaj scored their first goals of the season, and Adam Engstrom tied the game with 5:06 left for his first in the NHL.
The net has been shared. Jakub Dobes started Thursday and made 16 saves, while Fowler won three straight road starts in late October, including 2-1 in Winnipeg and a 2-0 shutout in St. Louis. Fowler was also in goal for the collapse against the Jets.
Special teams are the soft spot right now. Utah scored three power-play goals at Bell Centre on Thursday, two of them in Logan Cooley’s hat trick. Montreal is 5-2-2 at home and 5-1-1 on the road, so Bell Centre hasn’t given it any extra edge so far.
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Minnesota Wild: 4-0-1 at home, 7-3-2 on the road and points in six straight 
Minnesota is 11-3-3 with a +18 goal difference. Its 56 goals scored don’t stand out in the West. The 38 allowed do, and that’s what has the Wild ahead of Utah, Dallas and Colorado in the Central.
Jesper Wallstedt has started 15 of the 17 games. He made 26 saves in Washington, including a stop on Alex Tuch alone in front in the third period, and the Wild have turned to Pickard only twice: a 5-2 loss in Winnipeg and a 4-2 win in Vancouver.
Kirill Kaprizov reached 500 NHL points with an empty-net goal in that win over the Capitals. It took him 413 games, tying Evgeni Malkin as the fourth-fastest active player to the mark. Quinn Hughes and Joel Eriksson Ek pushed their own point streaks to five games the same night.
The starts have been sharp. Hughes scored at 3:42 and Michael McCarron at 5:27 in Washington, and Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said afterwards that his players were overwhelmed in those opening minutes. Maxim Shabanov and Danila Yurov both added power-play goals in the third period.
The travel is the open question. Minnesota has already played 12 of its 17 games on the road, and Tuesday opens a three-game trip through Montreal, Toronto and Boston. The only blemish in the current six-game run was a 4-3 overtime loss at home to New York.
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Minnesota Wild: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild
Our prediction: Minnesota Wild to win (overtime included)
We’re backing Minnesota. The Wild allow 2.24 goals a game, Montreal allows 3.19, and the Canadiens have needed overtime or a shootout for four of their ten wins. A team that leaked three power-play goals on Thursday and a 4-0 lead two days earlier is a team we’d rather oppose against the league’s tightest defense.
Montreal’s depth is real, Suzuki is back and six wins in seven games deserves some respect. Caufield’s overtime record is also the main reason we’re including the extra period in the pick rather than asking Minnesota to win in 60 minutes.
The Wild’s top players are all producing at once. Kaprizov, Hughes and Eriksson Ek carried point streaks into November, Wallstedt has been the starter almost every night, and Minnesota has beaten Washington, Philadelphia, Utah, Vancouver and Seattle on the road since late October.
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