- 1 Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic: 56.6 paint points a night, and Carter coming off 27 and 13
- 2 Sacramento Kings: Acuff’s 25.6 points and the league’s softest paint
- 3 Orlando Magic: 2-2 on the road without Banchero or Suggs
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic: 56.6 paint points a night, and Carter coming off 27 and 13 
Orlando won 131-94 at Golden 1 Center on 19 February, the biggest margin in a season series the Magic took 2-0. Sacramento’s roster has changed since, and so has Orlando’s health, but the Kings’ record hasn’t improved: they went 22-60 last year and they were 1-7 through Wednesday.
The rematch comes on Tuesday 10 November, tip-off 10:00pm ET. Sacramento has played three home games and lost all three, and it allows 123.3 points a night, a figure that has it near the bottom of the league.
Orlando has its own home problem at 0-4, but the Magic have been a different team on the road. They’re 2-2 away from home, including a 121-114 win in Toronto on 30 October, two nights after losing there by 30.
Their record of 2-6 isn’t much better than Sacramento’s, and both offenses are poor. Orlando scores 105.5 and Sacramento 109.3, and neither ranks in the top half of the league by offensive rating. What separates the two is defense, where Orlando’s rating of 117.41 is almost four points better than Sacramento’s 121.17.
Rest also leans to the visitors. Orlando plays in Golden State on Saturday and gets two days off before the short trip to Sacramento, while the Kings host San Antonio on Friday and Miami on Sunday and get one. The Magic then go on to Utah on Wednesday, so Tuesday is the first night of a back-to-back.
Sacramento Kings: Acuff’s 25.6 points and the league’s softest paint 
Darius Acuff Jr. leads Sacramento at 25.6 points and 7.0 assists as a rookie. His 22 points and 12 assists against the Lakers on Wednesday came on 8-of-24 shooting, and that mix of volume and inefficiency has defined the start of his career.
Zach LaVine is next at 23.1 points, with Domantas Sabonis at 15.1 and 14.9 rebounds. Sabonis had 16 points and 17 rebounds against the Lakers, LaVine scored 21 with six turnovers, and the Kings still lost 116-103 at home.
The interior defense is the biggest number against them. Sacramento gives up 56.6 points in the paint per game, the most in the NBA, and it has lost by 27 in San Antonio and by 31 in Memphis in the past two weeks. Its one win came in Dallas, 115-100, on 2 November.
Two injuries could change the rotation. Keegan Murray has been out with an ankle problem and Maxime Raynaud with a right patella subluxation, and the earliest listed return for both is 10 November itself. Ben Simmons is out for the season with an Achilles injury.
Doug Christie’s starting group has settled on Acuff, LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa and Sabonis. Hunter averages 13.0 and Achiuwa 11.0, and Sacramento’s net rating of -13.59 is one of the weakest we’ve seen this season.
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Orlando Magic: 2-2 on the road without Banchero or Suggs 
Wendell Carter Jr. had 27 points and 13 rebounds in Phoenix on Thursday, and Franz Wagner added 15 points, 15 assists and 8 rebounds. Orlando won the boards 48-33 and still lost 117-104, because its 25 turnovers became 36 Phoenix points.
That turnover count is the one thing Sean Sweeney needs fixed on this trip. The Magic have lost three straight, and the two before Phoenix were home games against Boston and Washington, in which they scored 97 and 94.
Paolo Banchero scored 35 on opening night before a low-grade right high ankle sprain on 23 October, and he averaged 24.5 in two games. There’s no official timetable, and the earliest estimates point to late November. Jalen Suggs has a mild bone bruise in his right knee and is due for a re-evaluation on Monday, a day before this game.
Wagner averages 20.3 points and Desmond Bane 17.9, and Anthony Black, who averages 16.5, returned from a right ankle injury on Thursday. Tristan da Silva scored 18 off the bench in Phoenix, and he’s averaging 14.1. Carter is at 12.4, well below what he produced on Thursday.
Noah Penda (hamstring) and Izaiyah Nelson (ankle) are out until at least 18 November, while Jonathan Isaac’s knee is being managed. Jase Richardson started at guard on Thursday, and Orlando’s rotation remains thin behind him.
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis
Probable lineup Orlando Magic: Jase Richardson, Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic
Our prediction: Orlando Magic to win
Orlando has the better defense by nearly four points per 100 possessions, an extra day of rest and a big man coming off 27 and 13 against the team that allows the most paint points in the league. Sacramento is 0-3 at home, and it lost by 13 to the Lakers on Wednesday.
Acuff and LaVine combine for 48.7 points, and that’s enough to make any game close if Orlando turns the ball over 25 times again. Sabonis’s 14.9 rebounds also cancel some of the edge inside. We’d accept those risks, because Sacramento’s net rating of -13.59 is well behind Orlando’s -9.00.
Moneylines weren’t available at the time of writing. We’d take Orlando only at 1.45 or longer, and the outcome of Suggs’s re-evaluation on Monday should be checked first.
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