- 1 Stade Rochelais vs Aviron Bayonnais: four wins each, and five home wins in five meetings
- 2 Stade Rochelais: two wins and two defeats at Marcel Deflandre
- 3 Aviron Bayonnais: three straight defeats, and one win from four on the road
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Rochelais vs Aviron Bayonnais
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stade Rochelais vs Aviron Bayonnais: four wins each, and five home wins in five meetings 
The home side has won each of the last five meetings between La Rochelle and Bayonne. The scores at Stade Marcel Deflandre include a 49-17 and a 29-28 for La Rochelle, while Bayonne’s three home wins came by 26-15, 37-7 and 13-12.
That record fits a fixture between two clubs who’ve both reached round nine of the Top 14 with four wins and four defeats. Sunday 8 November’s game, 20:05 UK time, is the last of the round, and Pierre Bru referees.
Both are coming off bad weeks. La Rochelle lost 43-24 at Stade Francais on 31 October and 25-19 at home to Bordeaux-Begles six days earlier. Bayonne have lost three in a row: 45-34 at Toulouse, 31-27 at home to Lyon and 19-14 at Bordeaux-Begles.
The points tell two different stories. Bayonne have scored 231 and conceded 264 across eight games, while La Rochelle have scored 187 and conceded 203. Bayonne’s games are far more open, and 70 of their points against came in a single afternoon at Pau.
Take that game out and Bayonne have conceded 194 in seven, or 27.7 a game. La Rochelle’s 203 in eight is 25.4. Those averages sit close together, and home advantage has decided this fixture every time in the five meetings on record.
No bookmaker prices were available when we wrote this, so we’ll give our pick without odds. The market should open close to game day.
Stade Rochelais: two wins and two defeats at Marcel Deflandre 
La Rochelle’s season began with a 30-27 win over Toulouse on 6 September and a 21-20 win at Toulon six days later. The Toulouse win was their first of the season, and it came by three points.
The home form since has been mixed. Racing 92 won 20-10 at Marcel Deflandre on 19 September, Clermont were beaten 38-13 on 3 October and Bordeaux-Begles left with a 25-19 win on 25 October.
That makes two wins and two defeats at home, with 97 points scored and 85 conceded in those four games.
Away from home La Rochelle have two wins, at Toulon and at Lyon, and two heavy defeats, 39-17 at Pau and 43-24 at Stade Francais. Those two defeats account for 82 of the 203 points they’ve conceded this season.
The team sheets aren’t out yet, and the autumn international window is a concern for both clubs this weekend. We’ve found no confirmed absence list for La Rochelle, so the team sheet will matter on Friday and Saturday.
A win would put them on five wins from nine and would end a run of two straight defeats.
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Aviron Bayonnais: three straight defeats, and one win from four on the road 
Bayonne’s four wins came in a run through September and early October: 27-26 over Toulon, 46-24 over Clermont, 20-17 at Racing 92 and 35-32 over Stade Francais. Three of those were at Stade Jean-Dauger.
Results since have fallen away. The defeat at Toulouse on 11 October was respectable at 45-34, but Lyon won 31-27 in Bayonne on 24 October, the first home loss of the season, and the 19-14 at Bordeaux-Begles on 31 October produced their lowest points total of the campaign.
The away record stands at one win and three defeats. Those four games produced 96 points for and 151 against, and the 70-28 at Pau on 12 September is the worst defeat by either of these sides this season.
Scoring hasn’t been the issue, as Bayonne’s 231 points are 44 more than La Rochelle’s. They’ve scored 27 or more in six of their eight games, and that gives them a route to a losing bonus even if they don’t win.
The squad has lost back-row Rob Leota, whose departure was reported on 13 October, with a contract that had been due to run to June 2027. We’ve seen no confirmed list of other absences for Sunday, and team news will come late.
A win would be Bayonne’s second away from home, and it would also be the first by a visiting side in this fixture across the five most recent meetings.
Probable lineup Stade Rochelais: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Aviron Bayonnais: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Rochelais vs Aviron Bayonnais
Our prediction: Stade Rochelais to win
Home sides have won all five of the recent meetings, and Bayonne arrive on three straight defeats with one win from four on the road. La Rochelle’s 38-13 over Clermont shows what they can do at Marcel Deflandre against a side outside the top group.
Bayonne’s attack is the honest case against us. They’ve scored 231 points and they took 34 off Toulouse in a defeat. We expect them to score here, and a losing bonus wouldn’t surprise us, but we don’t see their 37.8 points conceded per game on the road holding up for 80 minutes.
We’d wait for the team sheets and the opening prices before staking anything. Our minimum is 1.45, and if La Rochelle open below it, a handicap line would be the better way to back them.
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Information changes
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