- 1 Le Havre vs Lorient: 18th with two points, against a side conceding under a goal a game
- 2 Le Havre: one home point from five, and 13 conceded in four games
- 3 Lorient: 1-0 is the house score, and Mvogo’s clean sheets are why
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Havre vs Lorient
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Le Havre vs Lorient: 18th with two points, against a side conceding under a goal a game 
Le Havre are 18th and bottom of Ligue 1 with two points from nine games. They’re the last side in the division without a league win, and Lorient, 11th on 12 points, come to the Stade Océane on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 16:15 UK time.
The goal columns explain the positions. Le Havre have scored nine and conceded 20. Lorient have scored seven and conceded eight, so their games have produced 15 goals in nine rounds, and Le Havre’s 29.
That’s the shape of Sunday: a team that has conceded at least three in three of its last four games against a team that averages under a goal a game. Didier Digard’s side have let in 13 in their last four league games. Alexandre Dujeux’s side kept three straight clean sheets before Brest won 2-0 at the Moustoir on Monday.
The betting market leans only slightly away from the hosts, with Lorient at around 37-39%, Le Havre 33% and the draw 28-29%. I think that underrates how bad the home record has been, and it’s the most useful number in this preview.
History goes the other way. Le Havre won 2-0 at Lorient on 17 May, drew 1-1 at home in September 2025 and drew 3-3 away in January 2024. Lorient haven’t beaten them in the last four league meetings, a run that also includes a 3-0 win for Le Havre in September 2023.
Le Havre: one home point from five, and 13 conceded in four games 
The Stade Océane has given Digard almost nothing. A 0-0 with Angers on 12 September is the only home point of the season, and Monaco (1-0), Brest (2-1), Auxerre (3-1) and Paris Saint-Germain (5-1) have all won there.
That’s three goals scored and 11 conceded in five home league games. The 5-1 against PSG came on 30 October and followed a 3-1 defeat to Auxerre, so the last two visitors have both scored at least three.
Away from home the attack has looked very different. Le Havre scored three at Marseille on 25 October, all between the 77th and 89th minutes, and lost 4-3 after going 4-0 down. They also lost 1-0 at Lille on 10 October.
Josh Maja came off the bench at Marseille and scored twice, which took him to three league goals at the time and made him the club’s top scorer. Ally Samatta and Rayan Fofana had two each after eight games, and Lamine N’Diaye scored on 86 minutes at the Vélodrome.
Digard has generally used a 3-4-2-1, with Gallon in goal behind Touba, Seko and Ouziad and Mwanga in midfield. No injuries or suspensions had been reported before the PSG game, and we’ve seen no update since.
Le Havre failed to score in four of their last ten games at the point they met PSG. Against a side conceding under a goal a game, the late burst at Marseille looks like the exception.
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Lorient: 1-0 is the house score, and Mvogo’s clean sheets are why 
Lorient’s three league wins before Monday all finished 1-0: at Lens on 5 September, at home to Paris FC on 10 October and at home to Monaco on 18 October. Yvon Mvogo went into the Brest game with four league clean sheets, level with the most in the division.
Dujeux arrived from Angers in the summer and has built a cautious side. Lorient created 13 big chances in their first eight games, the joint-lowest total in Ligue 1, and scored 0.9 goals a game, yet they climbed into the top half anyway.
Monday’s 2-0 home defeat to Brest broke that pattern and cost them the unbeaten run at the Moustoir. Before it, they’d drawn 0-0 at Angers on 25 October, and every one of the six league games prior had been drawn or decided by a single goal.
The away record is the reason I lean this way. Their last five league games away from home brought two wins, two draws and a single defeat, 2-1 at Le Mans on 19 September, with six goals scored and two conceded.
Injuries could affect the structure. Panos Katseris had a hamstring problem before the Brest game, and Bandiougou Fadiga, Noah Mbamba and Mohamed Bamba were all doubts. Ibrahima Balde usually leads the line alone, with Makengo and Jensen behind him and a back three of Adjei, Talbi and Toure.
Seven goals in nine games is a low total, but Le Havre have conceded 20 in the same nine, and Lorient’s three wins all needed just one goal.
Probable lineup Le Havre: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Lorient: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Le Havre vs Lorient
Our prediction: Lorient to win
Le Havre have lost four of five at home, conceded 11 in those games and scored three. Lorient have lost once in their last five on the road, conceded twice in that run and had kept three straight league clean sheets before Monday.
I’m not ignoring the head-to-head, and Le Havre’s 2-0 win at Lorient in May is recent enough to count. That result came from a different season, and this Le Havre side has taken two points from a possible 27.
I’d take Lorient to win, and I’d expect it to be by a goal or two. With the market putting them under 40%, the price on the away side is the one worth having, provided it’s above 1.45 at the time of betting.
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