- 1 Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams: Stafford’s elbow and a Washington side still winless on the road
- 2 Washington Commanders: 31.9% on third down and McLaurin on injured reserve
- 3 Los Angeles Rams: fourth in the red zone, and Myles Garrett’s window is open
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams: Stafford’s elbow and a Washington side still winless on the road 
Matthew Stafford walked out of the locker room after beating the Chargers with ice on his right elbow. Sean McVay says he’s had some arm soreness and that there’s no concern about his status for Sunday.
The Rams go to Northwest Stadium in Landover on Sunday 8 November, 1:00pm ET, for a Week 9 game against Washington. Los Angeles is 4-4 after back-to-back wins over the Raiders, 35-21, and the Chargers, 24-9.
Washington is 2-4-1 and fresh from a 27-10 win over Philadelphia, a game in which it trailed by 10 and then scored 27 straight. It’s 2-1-1 at home and hasn’t won away, so Landover is at least the right venue.
The spread is Rams -5.5 at 1.91, with a total around 47.5. Los Angeles is priced at 1.42 on the moneyline, too short for us.
That Philadelphia win is the result pulling people towards the home side, and I’m not convinced by it. The Eagles are 2-6 now. Washington’s numbers across the season are a lot closer to what it showed before Sunday night.
Washington Commanders: 31.9% on third down and McLaurin on injured reserve 
Washington converts 31.9% of its third downs, the second-lowest rate in the league. It’s a hard way to live against a Rams defence ranked sixth in third-down stops.
Terry McLaurin went on injured reserve on 28 October, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt is there too. Laremy Tunsil has also been listed as sidelined. Treylon Burks stepped up with 81 receiving yards against the Eagles and Stefon Diggs caught the tying touchdown, but that’s a thinner group than Washington started with.
Jayden Daniels has protected the ball, I’ll give him that. Six touchdowns, no interceptions in five starts, and the Commanders turn it over on 4% of drives, the best rate in the league. He went 16 of 29 for 217 yards against Philadelphia and practised in full last week despite a left elbow issue.
The defence had its night too: five sacks, a forced fumble from Dorance Armstrong, an interception from Rasul Douglas and a takeaway streak now at five games. Across the season, though, it allows 26.0 points a game, 26th, and 243.0 passing yards, 27th.
The red zone is worse. Opponents score touchdowns on 79.2% of their trips inside the 20 against Washington, the third-worst rate in the NFL. Javon Kinlaw was out last week, and Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton were both on the report.
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Los Angeles Rams: fourth in the red zone, and Myles Garrett’s window is open 
The Rams rank fourth in the league in red-zone touchdown rate, and they meet that Washington red-zone defence on Sunday. They’ve scored 25 offensive touchdowns in eight games.
Stafford has 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and his 17-of-25 line for 157 yards against the Chargers looks modest because it was meant to be. He got rid of the ball in 2.38 seconds on average, and he went 13 of 14 on throws under 2.5 seconds, a plan that protects an arm he’s been nursing.
Puka Nacua caught 11 for 80 yards in that game, including an 18-yard screen for a touchdown. Kyren Williams ran 16 times for 56 yards and a score, Blake Corum 11 times for 73 and another. The Rams average 125.5 rushing yards a game, 10th in the NFL.
Myles Garrett is back at practice this week, which opens his 21-day window from injured reserve, though nobody has confirmed he’ll play. Kobie Turner and Poona Ford have also been on IR, so this front has been working without much of its depth.
It hasn’t shown. Los Angeles ranks fifth in total yards allowed at 301.1 and seventh in passing yards allowed, opponents have a 79.7 passer rating, and Quentin Lake and Trent McDuffie both picked off Justin Herbert last week. McDuffie (back) and Jaylen Watson (shoulder) are the ones to check before kick-off.
Probable lineup Washington Commanders: Not announced at time of publication (Daniels at quarterback, White at running back; McLaurin on injured reserve)
Probable lineup Los Angeles Rams: Not announced at time of publication (Stafford at quarterback, Williams and Corum in the backfield, Nacua at receiver; McDuffie and Watson being monitored)
Free NFL Prediction: Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams
Our prediction: Los Angeles Rams -5.5 at 1.91
I’d back the Rams to cover. They rank fourth in the red zone against a defence ranked third-worst there, Washington can’t stay on the field on third down, and the Rams are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
Daniels not turning the ball over is the honest case for the Commanders, and it could keep this close for a half. If Stafford’s elbow turns out to be more than soreness, I’d want to look again before kick-off.
The rest of it points one way. Washington’s 26th-ranked scoring defence has to stop a fourth-ranked red-zone offense with its own receiving corps short of McLaurin. A win by a touchdown does it, and the last two Rams wins came by 14 and 15.
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