- 1 San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders: 38-33 in New York and a defence ranked 31st
- 2 San Francisco 49ers: 28.1 points a game and a long list of questionable names
- 3 Las Vegas Raiders: Cousins’ 19 touchdowns cover for 31st in the league on the ground
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders: 38-33 in New York and a defence ranked 31st 
The Raiders beat the Jets 38-33 last Sunday and gave up 166 rushing yards at 6.1 a carry while doing it. That game covers most of what Las Vegas has been this season: 4-4, plenty of points at one end, not much resistance at the other.
San Francisco hosts them at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday 8 November, 4:25pm ET, in Week 9. The 49ers are 6-1 and off a bye, their only defeat a 29-20 loss to Atlanta before the week off.
The market has San Francisco at 1.17 on the moneyline and Las Vegas at 5.30. The spread sits at 49ers -9.5, with one book at 10, and the total is 51.5.
I’m not interested in the moneyline at that price, and I don’t want to lay nine and a half against a team that has covered six of eight. Las Vegas is the best spread side in this game, and that’s because its games turn into shootouts.
Six of the Raiders’ eight games have gone over the total. San Francisco scores 28.1 a game, fourth in the league. Las Vegas scores 27.6 and allows 28.8, 31st in the NFL. Add the two offenses together and you’re at 55.7 before the Raiders’ defence has had its say.
San Francisco 49ers: 28.1 points a game and a long list of questionable names 
Eight 49ers are listed as questionable this week, and four of them are names that change a game plan: Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel.
Evans is the most encouraging of the group. He hurt his Achilles against Washington and missed the second half of that game, but he could play on Sunday after the bye. De’Zhaun Stribling is on injured reserve.
Even with that list, San Francisco ranks sixth in total offense at 371.4 yards a game and 12th in passing at 244.0. Brock Purdy went 27 of 40 for 288 yards against Atlanta, with a touchdown and two interceptions, in a game the 49ers still moved the ball for 400 yards.
George Kittle caught eight for 88 in that defeat. Kaelon Black ran 12 times for 63 yards at 5.3 a carry, and that’s the matchup Sunday will test, because Las Vegas allows 5.1 yards a rush and has conceded 10 rushing touchdowns.
The defence has been sound. San Francisco gives up 19.9 points a game, sixth in the league, and 89.0 rushing yards. Only three rushing touchdowns have been scored against it in seven games, which leaves Cousins to throw if the Raiders are going to stay close.
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Las Vegas Raiders: Cousins’ 19 touchdowns cover for 31st in the league on the ground 
Kirk Cousins has 2,124 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three scores against the Jets. Nobody should be surprised that he’s the reason this team is 4-4.
He’s had to be. The Raiders run for 77.3 yards a game, 31st in the NFL, and they rank 30th in both rush EPA and rush success rate. Mike Washington Jr. needed 25 carries to reach 83 yards in New York.
Brock Bowers is the safety valve, seven catches for 92 yards last week, and he’ll see plenty of targets against a defence that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in seven games.
The other side of the ball doesn’t hold up. Las Vegas allows 381.9 total yards a game, 30th, and has given up 18 passing touchdowns plus 10 on the ground. Teams have scored 28 touchdowns on this defence in eight games.
Injuries are lighter than San Francisco’s. Darien Porter, a cornerback, is questionable, while Patrick Johnson, Keyron Crawford, Carter Runyon and Chigozie Anusium are on injured reserve. Losing two defensive ends to IR hasn’t helped a pass rush that needs to bother Purdy for this game to stay under.
Probable lineup San Francisco 49ers: Not announced at time of publication (Purdy at quarterback; McCaffrey, Evans, Samuel and Bosa all questionable)
Probable lineup Las Vegas Raiders: Not announced at time of publication (Cousins at quarterback, Washington Jr. at running back, Bowers at tight end)
Free NFL Prediction: San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Our prediction: Over 51.5 total points at 1.91
I’d back the over. Las Vegas has gone over in six of eight, the two offenses average a combined 55.7, and the Raiders concede more than 28 a game while allowing 5.1 yards a carry to a rested opponent.
The argument against is San Francisco’s own record: the under is 4-3 in 49ers games, and their defence allows under 20. If McCaffrey and Evans both sit, the home side could also lose some of its ceiling. Even so, Black averaged 5.3 a carry against Atlanta, and this Raiders front is softer than that one.
I’d rather not touch -9.5 at 1.85 against a team that’s 6-2 against the spread. If San Francisco pulls clear, Cousins will keep throwing, and he’s averaging more than two touchdowns a game. Both routes get this past 51.5.
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