- 1 Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions: Goff’s 15-to-1 ratio against a 1-6 home side
- 2 Miami Dolphins: a 13-3 half-time lead at New England, and one win to show for seven games
- 3 Detroit Lions: Gibbs has 773 rushing yards, but the secondary is thinning out
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions: Goff’s 15-to-1 ratio against a 1-6 home side 
Jared Goff has thrown 15 touchdowns and one interception in seven games. He’s got 1,964 passing yards, and Detroit average 30.7 points a game, second in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins host the Lions at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 1pm ET. Detroit are 5-2 with three straight wins. Miami are 1-6 and average 16.3 points.
The line sits at Lions -6.5 at some books and -7 at others, with the total around 50. Miami are 3.80 on the moneyline, and one major book has moved the total down from 49.5 to 49 this week. Detroit are 1.28 on the moneyline, which is too short to touch.
The margin is the real question here. Detroit’s last two wins came by three and four points, the latest 19-15 over Minnesota, and they’re just 2-4-1 against the spread this season.
Miami sit at 3-3-1 against the spread, so they’ve been more competitive than a 1-6 record suggests. I’m not convinced that survives this matchup, because the gap between the two teams shows up in almost every column: 397.3 yards a game to 293.5, and 21 sacks to six.
Miami Dolphins: a 13-3 half-time lead at New England, and one win to show for seven games 
Miami led New England 13-3 at half-time in Week 8 and lost 24-19. That game covers most of their season: enough to stay close for a while, not enough to finish.
Malik Willis went 21 of 32 for 211 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. For the season he’s at 1,268 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions, and the turnover margin of minus three reflects that.
Ollie Gordon II leads the ground game with 408 yards and four touchdowns, and he ran 19 times for 69 yards against the Patriots. Malik Washington has 329 receiving yards as the top target, and Caleb Douglas has two receiving touchdowns.
The offence averages 293.5 yards a game. Detroit’s sits more than 100 yards above that, and Miami have managed six sacks all season, which leaves Goff with time to go through his reads.
Chop Robinson has four of those six sacks, which leaves two for the rest of the defence in seven games.
Miami’s official Week 9 injury report wasn’t out at the time of writing, and the Week 8 recap didn’t report a new injury to a featured offensive player.
The record inside the division is 1-1, so the Dolphins’ one win came in the AFC East. They scored 19 against New England, which is close to three points above their 16.3 average, and they still lost by five.
Miami’s 3-3-1 mark against the spread is the reason this number isn’t double digits. Willis has kept them close in games without winning them, and six touchdowns against five interceptions shows how little margin he’s working with.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Detroit Lions: Gibbs has 773 rushing yards, but the secondary is thinning out 
Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards against Minnesota and has 773 yards with eight rushing touchdowns on the season. Sione Vaki added 65 yards in that game, which made 218 between the two of them in a game Detroit won by four.
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the receivers with 571 yards and five touchdowns, and Goff has taken care of the ball better than anyone could reasonably ask. Detroit’s turnover margin of plus three is six better than Miami’s.
The injury list is the part that keeps this from being simple. Kerby Joseph won’t play in Week 9 with a knee problem, according to Dan Campbell, and Brian Branch is in concussion protocol. That could leave Detroit without both of their top safeties.
DJ Wonnum, who leads the team with five sacks, was also in concussion protocol and missed the Minnesota game. Jimmy Rolder has gone on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, and D.J. Reed has a hip problem.
Jack Campbell, with 57 tackles, spent a night in hospital with a neck injury, though the early signs from the club were positive. Centre Cade Mays has an ankle problem, and Juice Scruggs is the likely replacement.
Detroit are 2-0 in the NFC North and on a three-game winning run. The offence has carried the side, and at 30.7 points a game it’s scoring nearly twice what Miami do.
That’s a lot of bodies, and it may explain why the last two wins were tight. Jacob Rodriguez has 69 tackles and would carry more of the load if Campbell can’t go.
Probable lineup Miami Dolphins: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Detroit Lions: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions
Our prediction: Detroit Lions -6.5 (1.82)
I’d back Detroit to cover at -6.5, available at 1.82. Miami have one win in seven games, and they don’t have the pass rush to disturb Goff or the offence to keep pace if Gibbs gets going early.
The worries are real: Detroit’s 2-4-1 record against the spread, two narrow wins and a defence with several names in doubt. Miami also held a ten-point lead at half-time last week, so they can start well.
They couldn’t hold that lead, and New England outscored them 21-6 after the break. I’d rather trust the side averaging 30.7 points with one interception all season, and -6.5 is the number I want rather than -7.
in your pocket.
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