- 1 FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen: five straight derby defeats and a home record still intact
- 2 FC Koln: unbeaten at home, but without three strikers and two centre-backs
- 3 Bayer Leverkusen: eight scored and none conceded in Europe, 16 conceded in the league
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen: five straight derby defeats and a home record still intact 
Koln haven’t beaten Bayer Leverkusen in any of the last five meetings between the clubs. Leverkusen won 3-0 in October 2023, 2-0 in Cologne five months later, 3-2 in the DFB-Pokal in February 2025, 2-0 last December and 2-1 at the RheinEnergieStadion on 25 April.
The sixth comes on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 14:30 UK time. Across the 19 meetings we’ve checked, Leverkusen have 11 wins to Koln’s five, with three draws, and bookmakers lean the same way: Leverkusen 1.74, the draw 4.20, Koln 4.00.
The price is shorter than Leverkusen’s recent league form deserves. They’ve lost their last two Bundesliga matches, 3-0 at Hoffenheim and 4-2 at home to Stuttgart, and they’ve conceded 16 goals in eight games, which puts them sixth on 13 points.
Koln are 13th on nine points after a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin on Sunday, their first away point of the season. They’ve scored nine goals and conceded 12, and their three league defeats have all come away from home.
The schedule adds a further edge for the hosts. Leverkusen play Marseille in the Europa League on Thursday night, 20:00 UK time, and have under three days to recover, while Koln have no midweek game and will have had a full week on the training ground.
FC Koln: unbeaten at home, but without three strikers and two centre-backs 
Rene Wagner’s side have played four league games in Cologne and lost none of them, with draws against Werder Bremen and Schalke and a 2-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach among the results. Their away record until Sunday was 1-4, 1-2 and 0-1.
Koln’s last seven league games read 1-4 at Stuttgart, 1-1 with Werder Bremen, 1-2 at Hamburg, 2-1 against Gladbach, 0-1 at Frankfurt, 0-0 with Schalke and 1-1 at Union, which is one win in that stretch. A 5-0 DFB-Pokal win over Union Berlin in the same run gave the squad some goals, but the league total is still modest. Nine in eight games is the fifth-lowest total in the division, and Leverkusen have scored twice as many.
Imad Rondic, Ragnar Ache (thigh) and Thijs Dallinga (cruciate ligament) were all ruled out before the Union game, which left Marius Bulter and Said El Mala as the likely starters up front.
Malek El Mala came on at 72 minutes in Berlin and equalised seven minutes later, cancelling Janik Haberer’s 10th-minute opener, and Mikey Moore had come off the bench at 61 minutes.
Timo Hubers (knee) and Rav van den Berg (muscle) are missing at centre-back, Ellyes Skhiri (ankle) is likely out until early 2027, and Jahmai Simpson-Pusey and Sebastian Sebulonsen were both booked at Union while holding that back line together.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Bayer Leverkusen: eight scored and none conceded in Europe, 16 conceded in the league 
Carles Martinez’s side have two different seasons running. In the Europa League they’ve won all three games without conceding, 2-0 against Celje, 4-0 at Lech Poznan and 2-0 at OFI Crete. In the Bundesliga they’ve won four of eight and let in 16.
The Stuttgart defeat was their first at home in the league this season, after 4-0 against Union Berlin, 2-0 against RB Leipzig and 2-1 against Freiburg at the BayArena. Stuttgart scored twice from set-piece situations or loose balls inside 22 minutes, and Leverkusen’s first-half reply came from a corner of their own.
Martinez arrived from Girona in the summer after Kasper Hjulmand was dismissed, and he became the first coach in Bundesliga history whose team scored at least twice in each of his first ten matches. That run ended at Hoffenheim, and Facundo Medina, signed from Marseille, and Miguel Gutierrez, signed from Napoli, have started in the defence that’s since conceded seven in two league games.
Patrik Schick found the net on each of the first six Bundesliga matchdays, a club record, and his header from Aleix Garcia’s corner against Stuttgart was his latest league goal. Ibrahim Maza added the second that day from Miguel Gutierrez’s cross.
Moussa Diaby, Martin Terrier, Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane are out, Loic Bade and Guela Doue are doubts, and Nathan Tella is a doubt with a muscle problem. Lucas Vazquez’s return to the league side against Stuttgart was his first Bundesliga start in two months.
Martinez made five changes after the 5-2 cup win over Nuremberg and Thursday’s game will force more decisions. Leverkusen won 4-3 at Mainz this season, and we’d expect another away game in which they concede chances and rely on Schick and Maza to finish more of their own.
Probable lineup FC Koln: Schwaebe; Sebulonsen, Simpson-Pusey, Lochoshvili, Sosa; Johannesson, Krauss; Maina, Moore, El Mala; Bulter
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutierrez; Garcia, Fernandez; Hofmann, Maza, Moreira; Schick
Free Bundesliga Prediction: FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win (1.74)
We’re siding with Leverkusen at 1.74. Five straight wins in this fixture, 18 league goals to Koln’s nine and a Koln forward line missing three strikers point the same way, and two defeats in a row haven’t changed how often Martinez’s side create chances.
Koln’s home record is the honest argument against us, and so is the Thursday game, because Leverkusen arrive under three days after a Europa League night. We’ve priced that in, and it’s the reason we’d avoid any handicap.
Koln’s two missing centre-backs face a striker who’s scored on seven of eight league matchdays. We think that matchup decides Sunday’s game.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of FC Koln and Bayer Leverkusen on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply