- 1 Arsenal vs Hull City: seven home wins in a row against a side winless since August
- 2 Arsenal: three straight clean sheets, even with Saliba and Saka missing
- 3 Hull City: five draws in seven, with five players ruled out
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Arsenal vs Hull City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Arsenal vs Hull City: seven home wins in a row against a side winless since August 
Arsenal go into Saturday’s game at the Emirates, 15:00 UK time on 7 November, top of the Premier League on 24 points from nine matches and three clear of Manchester City. The result that kept them there came at Anfield on Sunday, a 1-0 win that was their first top-flight victory on Liverpool’s ground in 14 years.
Hull City arrive 11th on 11 points. That table place was built almost entirely in August, when they beat Manchester United 2-0 at home and won 1-0 at Coventry, and they haven’t won a league game in the seven matches since.
Those seven games have still brought five draws, including 2-2 at Chelsea on 12 September and 2-2 against Ipswich last Saturday. Sergej Jakirovic’s players are hard to beat by a wide margin, and only Newcastle and Fulham have taken all three points from them in that run.
The fixture list gives Arsenal one complication. They travel to Slavia Prague on Wednesday night in the Champions League, then have under three days to turn around for a side that has already taken a point at Stamford Bridge.
I don’t think that trip changes the outcome, but it does shape which market makes sense here. A straight Arsenal win is priced at 1.14, so the interesting question is how Hull get on at the other end of the pitch.
Arsenal: three straight clean sheets, even with Saliba and Saka missing 
Seven consecutive home league wins is the headline, and the last five home matches across all competitions have finished with 12 scored and two conceded. Everton left the Emirates beaten 2-0 on 24 October, and Lille lost 3-0 there in the Champions League eleven days earlier.
The defending matters more than the attacking in that record, because Arsenal aren’t running up big scores. They’ve scored 14 in nine league games, a modest total for a leader when City have 20 and Brighton 24, but they’ve conceded just five.
The three clean sheets in a row came against Forest, Everton and Liverpool, and two of those were 1-0 wins away from home. Their Champions League numbers follow the same pattern, with two goals conceded in three matches, the joint-best record in the competition.
William Saliba returned to group training on Tuesday after a back injury, but he was still ruled out of Prague, so Konsa is the likely partner for Gabriel again. Bukayo Saka, level with Havertz as the club’s top league scorer on three, has a thigh problem and no return date.
Max Dowman is banned domestically until 29 November, and Eberechi Eze is a fitness doubt. Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Noni Madueke have all come back from minor concerns, though any of them could be rested after Prague.
Arsenal have now scored in 24 consecutive Premier League games, and the record against this opponent is one-sided: three straight league wins over Hull, and eight wins from the last ten meetings going back to 2008.
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Hull City: five draws in seven, with five players ruled out 
Hull’s record since August reads 0-0 with Aston Villa, 2-2 at Chelsea, a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle, 2-2 with Everton, a 1-0 defeat at Fulham, 1-1 with Brentford and 2-2 with Ipswich. That’s five points from a possible 21, and it explains how a side that started so quickly has drifted to mid-table.
They’ve scored 11 in nine league games and conceded 10, with Mohamed Belloumi on three and McBurnie on two.
The away record is what concerns me for them on Saturday. Across four league trips they’ve won once, drawn once and lost twice, scoring four, and two of those four goals came in one afternoon at Chelsea.
Jakirovic is also short of bodies. Targett (ankle), Hughes (groin), Matazo (knee) and Gyabi (thigh) have no return dates, and Crooks is suspended until 22 November.
Goalkeeper Butland has an arm injury and is rated a 50% chance of playing, while Gourna-Douath is 75% with a calf problem. A back five with McBurnie alone up front is the expected shape, and Arsenal’s five conceded is the lowest total of any side in the top six.
Since 2008 Hull have made five league visits to Arsenal, winning one and drawing one, and they’ve been outscored 10-4 across those games.
Probable lineup Arsenal: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Merino, Odegaard; Madueke, Eze; Gyokeres
Probable lineup Hull City: Tzolakis; Norton-Cuffy, Egan, Ajayi, Coyle, Herrington; Belloumi, Slater, Iroegbunam, Stroud; McBurnie
Free Premier League Prediction: Arsenal vs Hull City
Our prediction: Arsenal to win to nil at odds of 1.73
An Arsenal win at 1.14 is too short, and over 2.5 goals at 1.50 doesn’t suit a side with 14 goals in nine league games. Win to nil at 1.73 matches what Arsenal have actually been doing: three clean sheets running, five goals conceded in nine league games and only two conceded in their last five at home.
Hull have scored in each of their last three home games, and Arsenal will have Prague in their legs. Those goals all came at home, though, and on their last two away days Hull failed to score at Fulham and managed one at Newcastle.
Saka and Dowman are missing for Arsenal and Saliba is short of match practice, but Hull’s absences run deeper, with five players out and Butland a doubt. I expect a 2-0, the same score Arsenal posted against Everton on 24 October.
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