- 1 Montpellier Herault Rugby vs LOU Rugby: level on 23 points, 105 points apart on defence
- 2 Montpellier Herault Rugby: three home wins by 37, 28 and 59 points
- 3 LOU Rugby: 272 points scored, but 140 conceded in four away games
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Montpellier Herault Rugby vs LOU Rugby
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montpellier Herault Rugby vs LOU Rugby: level on 23 points, 105 points apart on defence 
Only one thing separates Montpellier and Lyon in the Top 14 table, and it’s 105 points conceded. Both clubs have five wins and 23 points from eight rounds, but Montpellier have let in 149 and Lyon 254. They meet at the Septeo Stadium on Saturday 7 November, 15:35 UK time.
Fourth plays fifth, with Pau three points ahead of both and the leaders Toulouse five ahead. A bonus-point win would take either club to 28 points, the leaders’ current total.
The two clubs have built those matching records in opposite ways. Lyon have the second-highest points total in the league at 272, behind only Pau. Montpellier have scored 20 fewer and given up 105 fewer.
Recent results flatter both of them. Montpellier beat Castres 69-10 on Sunday. Lyon beat Vannes 48-25 in round eight, and won 31-27 in Bayonne on 24 October with Iosefo Masi scoring in the 76th minute.
The bookmakers have made up their minds: Montpellier are 1.12 and Lyon 6.25, with the draw at 34.00. That’s a wide gap for two clubs level on points, and we think the venue record justifies it, which sends us to the margin for our pick.
Montpellier Herault Rugby: three home wins by 37, 28 and 59 points 
Montpellier lost their first home game of the season, 27-19 to Pau on 5 September. They’ve played three more at the Septeo Stadium since, and they’ve won them 50-13 against Perpignan, 28-0 against Toulon and 69-10 against Castres.
Across those three games they’ve conceded 23 points in total. Their points difference for the season stands at plus 103, the best in the division, ahead of Bordeaux-Bègles on plus 75 and Toulouse on plus 58.
The 28-0 win over Toulon deserves particular attention. Toulon have since won at Perpignan and beaten Pau 41-20, and they sit sixth, so a shutout against them is a stronger piece of evidence than the Castres scoreline.
Away form has been less convincing, with wins at Vannes (26-12) and Racing 92 (20-17) against defeats at Toulouse (40-18) and Stade Français (30-22). None of that applies on Saturday, but it does mean we’d avoid reading their season as an all-round dominant one.
No absences have been confirmed for this game, and the team sheet isn’t out. We’d want to see how much of Sunday’s starting side returns before raising our view of the margin any further.
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LOU Rugby: 272 points scored, but 140 conceded in four away games 
Lyon have the second-best away record in the Top 14, with wins at Racing 92 (48-31) and Bayonne (31-27). We rate it a little lower than that position suggests.
Both of those wins came against sides in the lower half or close to it: Racing are 13th, and Bayonne are seventh with 264 points conceded, the most in the league. Against opponents in the top eight with a sound defence, Lyon lost 31-10 at Stade Français and 51-28 at Bordeaux-Bègles.
That’s 140 points conceded on four trips, 35 a game. Montpellier’s attack has averaged 41.5 at home, so the two sets of numbers point to a high score for the home side.
Lyon’s attack has its own case to make. It’s scored 40 or more in four of their eight league games, including that 48 at Racing, and it put 51 on Pau, who lead the league in scoring. Only Toulon, in the 28-0 game, have failed to reach double figures at the Septeo Stadium this season, while Lyon haven’t scored fewer than 10 anywhere.
Their one home defeat, 28-16 to La Rochelle on 10 October, was their third in a row. They’ve won both league games since, and Masi’s late try at Bayonne was Lyon’s fifth of the afternoon.
Probable lineup Montpellier Herault Rugby: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup LOU Rugby: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Montpellier Herault Rugby vs LOU Rugby
Our prediction: Montpellier to win by 13 points or more
Montpellier at 1.12 offers nothing, so we’re taking the winning margin. Their last three home games were won by 37, 28 and 59 points. Lyon’s two away defeats came by 21 and 23, against defences that have conceded far more than Montpellier’s this season.
We accept that Lyon are a stronger attack than Perpignan, Toulon or Castres, and that 30 points for the visitors wouldn’t surprise us. Their away games have still produced an average of 35 points against, and we’d expect Montpellier to reach that figure with some room to spare.
We couldn’t find a published price for this line at the time of writing, so check that it’s available at 1.45 or better. If the handicap opens beyond 17 points, we’d pass on it.
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