- 1 Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks: 11 goals a week ago, and a 1-6-0 record at Rogers Arena
- 2 Vancouver Canucks: 21.5 shots a night and 4.5 goals allowed, with Demko out until December
- 3 Anaheim Ducks: six straight goals against Ottawa and a road record better than their home one
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks: 11 goals a week ago, and a 1-6-0 record at Rogers Arena 
Anaheim led Vancouver by three goals with under eight minutes left at Honda Center on 27 October and lost 6-5 in overtime. The Canucks outshot the Ducks 33-23 that night, which was one of only three wins Vancouver has managed all season, and the two teams meet again on Tuesday 3 November at Rogers Arena, puck drop 9:00pm ET.
The context around that rematch has shifted quickly. Anaheim was in the middle of a 1-6-1 skid when it blew that lead, then gave up seven to Buffalo two nights later. On Sunday the Ducks went down 3-0 to Ottawa in the first period and scored six straight to win 6-3.
Vancouver has moved in the opposite direction. The Canucks have lost four of their last five, including two straight after a two-goal defeat to Toronto, and they’re last in the Pacific Division at 3-12-1 with seven points.
The split in their home and road results is what I find most useful here. Vancouver is 1-6-0 at Rogers Arena, its only win a 4-1 result over Calgary on 3 October. Anaheim has been far better traveling, at 4-3-0, than at Honda Center, where it’s 2-4-1.
The market agrees with that reading. Anaheim is 1.68 on the moneyline, Vancouver is 2.24, and the total is 6.5, the kind of number reserved for games between two teams that both allow more than 3.7 goals a night.
Vancouver Canucks: 21.5 shots a night and 4.5 goals allowed, with Demko out until December 
Vancouver’s season can be read in one comparison. The Canucks take 21.5 shots a game and allow 31.9, a gap of more than ten shots every night, and that imbalance is why a team with 47 goals scored has a goal difference of minus 25.
The goaltending situation makes that gap harder to survive. Thatcher Demko is on injured reserve with a hip problem until at least 21 December, and Leevi Merilainen has taken the net. He stopped 24 of 27 shots against Toronto, an .889 night, which is respectable behind a defense allowing 4.5 goals a game.
The scoring isn’t the weakest part of this roster. Vancouver gets 2.94 goals a game out of those 21.5 shots. Elias Pettersson has 16 points, 12 of them assists, Brock Boeser and Jonathan Lekkerimaki have 13 each, and Filip Hronek has 12 from the blue line.
Boeser and Max Sasson scored against Toronto, and Lekkerimaki has six goals, so there are finishers here. What’s missing is the volume of possession needed to use them, and Filip Chytil’s absence through at least 7 November takes away a center who could help with that.
Home ice hasn’t helped at all. Edmonton won 9-7 here on 1 October and Vegas 3-2 on 4 October, either side of the win over Calgary, and since then the Canucks have lost 6-3 to Carolina, 5-2 to Detroit and 4-2 to Minnesota, with Toronto adding another defeat on Saturday.
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Anaheim Ducks: six straight goals against Ottawa and a road record better than their home one 
Sunday’s comeback was the kind of game that changes how a team feels about itself. Philip Tomasino, Claude Giroux and Michael Amadio put Ottawa up 3-0 in the first period, and Anaheim answered with six unanswered goals, three of them from Cutter Gauthier on five shots.
Judd Caulfield had two goals and an assist in that win, Roger McQueen scored on four shots, and Leo Carlsson had three assists. That extended Carlsson’s team lead to 21 points, 17 of them assists, ahead of Jackson LaCombe on 15 and Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke on 12 each.
Anaheim scores 3.5 goals a game, and it does so on just 25 shots. That’s an efficient return, and it’s the main reason a team allowing 3.79 goals a game has stayed within reach at 6-7-1. Sennecke has eight goals of his own.
The goaltending remains the concern. Laurent Brossoit allowed three goals on 23 shots on Sunday for an .870 save percentage, and Lukas Dostal’s .872 is no better. The Ducks gave up 17 goals in their last three defeats, which is why a 6-3 win shouldn’t be mistaken for a repaired defense.
Injuries have also thinned the forward group, with Troy Terry, A.J. Greer and Ryan Poehling all on injured reserve, along with defenseman Ian Moore. Terry’s hip injury is expected to keep him out until at least 6 November, so he won’t be back for this one.
Probable lineup Vancouver Canucks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Anaheim Ducks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks
Our prediction: Anaheim Ducks to win (moneyline) at 1.68
Vancouver won the last meeting in overtime, and it did so by outshooting Anaheim 33-23, which is the honest case against this pick. I’m still taking the Ducks, because that game needed a three-goal collapse to go Vancouver’s way, and the Canucks have won one of seven at home.
Anaheim outscores Vancouver by more than half a goal a game, takes 3.5 more shots, and allows 0.71 fewer goals than the Canucks. Carlsson and Gauthier also face a defense that has conceded 72 goals in 16 games.
Both goalies will be tested, and this could easily be another high-scoring game. In that kind of contest we’d rather have the better attack and the 4-3-0 road record, so we’re on Anaheim at 1.68.
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