- 1 Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets: a rested 1-6 team against a Hawks side on no rest
- 2 Atlanta Hawks: McCollum and Alexander-Walker holding it together without Johnson
- 3 Brooklyn Nets: Porter Jr., Randle and Sharpe against a 124-point defensive average
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets: a rested 1-6 team against a Hawks side on no rest 
Atlanta made 15 threes in the first half in Indianapolis on Monday, tying the franchise record for any half. It then won by four, 108-104, against a Pacers team with six players available. We start with that split because it’s the best summary of a Hawks team that has swung between extremes for two weeks.
Two nights earlier the same team shot 8 of 46 from three in New Orleans, committed 19 turnovers and lost 121-99. Before that it had beaten Cleveland 114-111. The Hawks are 4-4 and host Brooklyn at State Farm Arena on Saturday 7 November, tip-off 7:30pm ET.
Brooklyn is 1-6 and got its first win only on Sunday, 98-90 in Indiana. The Nets lost at Madison Square Garden the next night, 103-90, after leading 79-75 going into the fourth quarter. They scored 11 points in the final 12 minutes while New York opened the period on a 16-2 run.
Schedule is the argument for the visitors. Atlanta plays at Washington on Wednesday and hosts the Wizards on Friday, so Saturday is the second night of a back-to-back. Brooklyn hosts Charlotte on Wednesday and then has two full days off before it travels.
Scoring is the argument for the hosts. Atlanta was averaging 119.2 points and allowing 114.5 at the start of the week. Brooklyn was allowing 124.0 a game through its first four, 27th in the league, with opponents shooting 49.1% from the field.
Atlanta Hawks: McCollum and Alexander-Walker holding it together without Johnson 
Jalen Johnson sprained his left ankle in the fourth quarter in New Orleans and missed Monday’s game, the first he’s missed this season. The Hawks hoped to have him back for Wednesday’s trip to Washington, and Jock Landale, who lasted 1:22 in New Orleans before a hip pointer, could return with him.
In Indianapolis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s shooting and CJ McCollum’s playmaking carried the win. Atlanta led by as many as 15 before Indiana’s 9-0 run made it a one-possession game in the fourth quarter.
The depth was tested in other ways. Kingston Flemings served a one-game suspension on Monday for elbowing Bryce McGowens, and rookie Zuby Ejiofor made his regular-season debut and hit a three for his first NBA basket. Asa Newell scored 13 after replacing Landale in New Orleans.
The frontcourt is short for the season. Henri Veesaar tore his right ACL and Mouhamed Gueye had surgery on a fractured foot in July, with a re-evaluation due around now. Onyeka Okongwu starts at center, with Dorian Finney-Smith alongside him when Johnson is out.
Atlanta went 2-0 to open the season and has gone 2-4 since, with two of those defeats coming to Houston by seven and ten points. A home game against Brooklyn is the softest stop on a calendar that has given it Cleveland, Miami and Houston twice in two weeks.
no renewal
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Brooklyn Nets: Porter Jr., Randle and Sharpe against a 124-point defensive average 
The win in Indiana showed what Brooklyn can do when the game slows down. Michael Porter Jr. had 23 points and nine rebounds, Julius Randle added 20 points, six assists and five rebounds, and Day’Ron Sharpe posted season highs of 15 points and 13 rebounds for the 20th double-double of his career.
The Nets have also been closer than the record says. They lost 125-124 in overtime in Boston when Jayson Tatum hit a 17-foot jumper at the buzzer, and rookie Mikel Brown Jr. missed a layup with 2.3 seconds left that would have won it. They lost 125-121 in Cleveland after cutting a 17-point deficit with a 22-7 run.
Monday’s 11-point fourth quarter at Madison Square Garden turned a four-point lead into a 13-point loss.
Egor Demin has a leg injury and was given at least a week on 29 October, so Saturday falls just after that window. His return would give Brown some relief at the point, and the Nets scored only 98 points in their one win.
Defensive numbers remain the reason for the record. Opponents were shooting 49.1% against Brooklyn before this week, and the Nets’ defensive rating sat at 118.1. They then held the Pacers to 90 and the Knicks to 103 on consecutive nights, and Indiana was missing most of its rotation guards for the first of those.
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dorian Finney-Smith, Onyeka Okongwu (Johnson’s return would change this group)
Probable lineup Brooklyn Nets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets
Our prediction: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (handicap)
We’re taking Atlanta, and we prefer the handicap because a straight win could price near our 1.45 minimum. The Hawks score about 119 a night, Brooklyn gives up more than 120, and a team that scored 11 in Monday’s fourth quarter is a poor bet to hold on late. Johnson’s expected return adds a scorer and a rebounder the Nets don’t have a match for.
The back-to-back is what could cost us. Atlanta will have played Washington twice in three nights before this game, while Brooklyn gets two days to prepare, and the Hawks’ shooting has moved a long way from one night to the next. We’d lean away from this pick if Johnson sits again.
Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing, so 4.5 is our number, and we’d want to see the market near it. A spread above 7 would take us out of the game.
in your pocket.
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