- 1 RC Toulon vs Stade Français: three straight under Azéma against a side with no away win
- 2 RC Toulon: first away win of the season, and Jaminet back in form
- 3 Stade Français: a Nicotera hat-trick, and four defeats from four on the road
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: RC Toulon vs Stade Français
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
RC Toulon vs Stade Français: three straight under Azéma against a side with no away win 
Junior Kpoku scored in the corner at 80 minutes to beat Perpignan 25-24 on Saturday, after returning from a yellow card, and the video review confirmed the try. That gave Toulon three straight wins, and it took them from 13th in early October to sixth.
Stade Français go to the Stade Mayol on Saturday 7 November, 15:35 UK time, after a 43-24 win over La Rochelle of their own. Four wins from four at Jean Bouin, four defeats from four on the road: Clermont, Bordeaux-Bègles, Bayonne and Castres have all beaten them.
The table has Toulon sixth on 21 points and the Parisians eighth on 19. Both have won four and lost four, but Toulon’s points difference is +22 and they’ve collected five bonus points to Stade Français’ three.
I’d put the turnaround at Toulon down to the week of 4 October. They lost 28-0 at Montpellier, Pierre Mignoni resigned, and Franck Azéma has won every league game since.
The prices are 1.23 Toulon, 4.30 Stade Français and 26.00 the draw. Nobody should be taking 1.23 on a side that needed the last move of the game in Perpignan, so the pick sits on the margin.
RC Toulon: first away win of the season, and Jaminet back in form 
Azéma’s run began with a 29-15 win over Racing 92 at Mayol on 10 October, in which Melvyn Jaminet was left out after poor performances and Tomas Albornoz kicked all seven of his attempts. Toulon were reduced to 14 men twice that night, and still won by two scores.
Next came a 41-20 win over Pau with a Jaminet hat-trick, so the demotion didn’t last. He kicked the conversion and penalties at Perpignan and has taken back the role.
Saturday’s win had its faults. Toulon led 20-10 after Pierre Damond’s try from a maul at 65 minutes, then conceded twice in seven minutes to James Hall and Théo Forner while Kpoku was off. Paolo Garbisi’s first-half try came from an intercepted Albornoz pass.
It was still the first away win of their season, which leaves Mayol as the stronger part of the record. Three home wins from four, against Vannes, Racing and Pau, with La Rochelle the only visitors to leave with the points.
Gaël Fickou, the captain, spoke after the Racing game about the aggression improving. Teddy Baubigny, who scored that night, called 13th place unacceptable, and the numbers since back up what he said: 95 points scored in three games.
Toulon’s pack decided the game in Perpignan. Damond’s try came from a maul and Kpoku’s followed a strong spell from the forwards, and Stade Français arrive with a maul that scored twice on Saturday.
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Stade Français: a Nicotera hat-trick, and four defeats from four on the road 
Giacomo Nicotera scored three tries from the hooker’s position on Saturday, at 27, 34 and 49 minutes, two of them off the back of the driving maul. Paris led 22-0 at half-time, scored six tries in all and took the bonus point.
La Rochelle’s discipline helped. They conceded numerous penalties and saw yellow, though Stade Français had their own cards, with Louis Carbonel and Dakuwaqa both sent to the bin.
That result came a week after defeat at Castres, a team that lost 69-10 at Montpellier on Sunday. Their season totals are 198 points for, 198 against, and a points difference of exactly zero.
Alivereti Duguivalu, Juan Martin Scelzo and Tomasi Maka also scored against La Rochelle, so the threat isn’t only at the set-piece. Georgian prop Melikidze appears to have picked up a serious injury, which thins the front row before a trip to Mayol.
The head-to-head offers them some encouragement. The two most recent meetings on record went Stade Français’ way, 51-24 in Paris and 46-27 at Toulon, after Toulon had won the two before that.
Those games came before Azéma, though, and Paris have yet to show they can take this form away from Jean Bouin. The club’s own match report named a first away win as the target for Saturday, eight rounds into the season.
Probable lineup RC Toulon: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Stade Français: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: RC Toulon vs Stade Français
Our prediction: Toulon to win by 8 points or more
Three wins since Mignoni left, three home wins from four, and a visiting side that has lost every away game. I’d back Toulon to win and to do it with some room, which is why the plain 1.23 stays out of this. Check the handicap price at your bookmaker before kick-off, because no line was available at the time of writing.
Stade Français won the last two meetings and arrive with 43 points behind them, and that’s the argument against. Their away record says the Jean Bouin version doesn’t travel, and Melikidze’s injury weakens the set-piece that won them Saturday’s game.
Something around 31-20 to Toulon is where I land, with Jaminet’s boot widening the gap late on.
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