- 1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens: a .932 rookie against 60 goals in 16 games
- 2 Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews at 24 points and a blue line getting Tanev back
- 3 Montreal Canadiens: 5-0-0 without Suzuki, and the captain is skating again
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens: a .932 rookie against 60 goals in 16 games 
Jacob Fowler is 7-1-0 with a .932 save percentage and a 1.84 goals-against average, and Montreal has won all seven of his last starts. The rookie goes to Scotiabank Arena on Saturday 7 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET, to face a Toronto attack that has scored 60 goals in 16 games.
The Canadiens won the first meeting this season, 3-2 in Toronto on 29 September. They’ve gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 and sit at 9-3-2 with 20 points. Toronto is 8-6-2 with 18 points, sixth in the division.
Both teams have work to do before Saturday. Montreal hosts Winnipeg on Tuesday and Utah on Thursday, which leaves one day of rest. Toronto hosts Utah on Tuesday and then has three days off, and it plays New Jersey at home on Sunday, so this is the first half of a back-to-back.
Toronto scores 3.75 goals a game and allows 3.31. Montreal scores 3.43 and allows 3.00, and that average includes six Jakub Dobes appearances at a .853 save percentage. Fowler’s 1.84 is more than two goals a game lower than Dobes’ 4.05.
Montreal is 5-1-1 away from home, the better road record of the two teams by a distance. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-3-1 at Scotiabank Arena, so home ice hasn’t given them much so far.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews at 24 points and a blue line getting Tanev back 
Auston Matthews has 11 goals and 13 assists in 16 games, and he’s had points in six of his last seven. William Nylander has 10 goals and 11 assists, including the breakaway that opened the scoring 83 seconds into Saturday’s 4-2 win in Vancouver.
The support has come from unexpected places. Jack Roslovic has 6 goals and 16 points and has points in six straight games, with three goals and seven assists in that run. Easton Cowan has 14 points, and Gavin McKenna, at 18, has 5 goals and 11 points. Morgan Rielly has 11 assists and no goals from the blue line.
Injuries have changed the forward group. John Tavares has been on injured reserve since 17 October, Kirill Marchenko went on injured reserve on 29 October, and Max Domi and Miles Wood are on long-term injured reserve. The good news came in Vancouver, where Chris Tanev returned after missing nine games and Dakota Joshua played his first game of the season.
Goaltending is the question. Anthony Stolarz is 5-1-0 with a 2.66 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage, while Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-5-2 at 3.29 and .885. With the Devils coming on Sunday, the two will likely split the weekend, and we’d expect Stolarz for this one after his 26-save win in Vancouver. Toronto hasn’t confirmed that.
Special teams have been Toronto’s strength. Through 15 games the power play had converted 15 of 48 chances, 31.25%, and the penalty kill had stopped 92.31% of opposing power plays. The Leafs lost 5-2 in Calgary and 5-4 in Seattle the week before Vancouver, though, and allowing four or more has been a habit at even strength.
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Montreal Canadiens: 5-0-0 without Suzuki, and the captain is skating again 
Nick Suzuki returned to practice on Monday in a full contact jersey, skating between Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield. He hasn’t played since blocking a shot from Michael Kesselring in a 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose on 20 October, and Montreal has gone 5-0-0 without him.
Fowler is the reason. He made 46 saves in a 2-0 shutout in St. Louis on 27 October, then won 5-2 in Dallas and 5-4 at home to Pittsburgh on Halloween, when he made 25 saves. He was named the NHL’s third star for the week ending 25 October after wins in Chicago and at the Heritage Classic. Only Carey Price and Dobes have matched a run of seven straight among Montreal rookie goalies over the last 40 years.
Lane Hutson leads the team with 13 points, 3 goals and 10 assists, and Caufield has a team-high 8 goals. Josh Anderson has 6 goals and 9 points, including two goals and an assist against Pittsburgh. Slafkovsky has 7 assists and only 2 goals, which Suzuki’s return may help.
The depth has held up through the absences. Oliver Kapanen, Alexandre Texier and Owen Beck all had a hand in goals against Pittsburgh, and Phillip Danault played his 800th NHL game against the Penguins. Kirby Dach missed Monday’s practice with an illness and needs checking.
Montreal hasn’t been airtight. It lost 6-5 in overtime in Pittsburgh, 6-4 at home to Carolina and 5-2 at home to Nashville in the first ten days of October. Its only regulation loss on the road came 5-4 in Washington on 14 October.
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens
Our prediction: Montreal Canadiens to win (moneyline)
Fowler’s .932 is the largest single edge on the ice. Montreal has already won in this building once, it’s 5-1-1 on the road, and its captain could be back in the lineup by Saturday. Toronto’s goaltending numbers don’t match that, even with Stolarz starting.
The Leafs have the two best forwards in this game and a power play above 30%, and the Canadiens will need to stay out of the penalty box. Fowler’s starts on Tuesday and Thursday will also affect his workload, and if Dobes plays Saturday we’d withdraw the pick.
Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing. We expect Montreal to be priced as a slight underdog, well above our 1.45 minimum.
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