- 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards: two top-11 defenses, both on the second night of a back-to-back
- 2 Oklahoma City Thunder: 28th in scoring, fifth in defense and six players on the injury report
- 3 Washington Wizards: Davis at 27, Dybantsa at 21, and two straight wins built on defense
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 11 About visuals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards: two top-11 defenses, both on the second night of a back-to-back 
Orlando scored 9 points in the third quarter against Washington on Monday. The Wizards won 103-94, a first win in Orlando since 30 December 2022 and their first back-to-back wins of the season, three nights after holding Charlotte to 79 points on 29.7% shooting.
Oklahoma City is the next stop for that defense. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Wizards at Paycom Center on Saturday 7 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET, in a game between two teams that were both in the top 11 for points allowed through Sunday: Oklahoma City at 107.0, fifth, and Washington at 109.7, 11th.
Neither offense kept pace with those numbers. Oklahoma were scoring 106.5 a game, 28th in the NBA, and shooting 30.9% from three. Washington was at 110.5, 20th, on 29.3% from three, the lower of the two.
The calendar pushes the same way. Oklahoma City plays in Memphis on Friday and Washington plays in Atlanta on Friday, both at or after 7:00pm ET, so each team plays Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back after a late flight.
That’s why we’ve left the sides alone. With Oklahoma City’s injury list as long as it is and Washington still finding its feet on the road, the clearest read on this game is how few points two tired, poor-shooting teams are likely to score.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 28th in scoring, fifth in defense and six players on the injury report 
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 40 in Cleveland on Monday and hit the go-ahead three with 32 seconds left in a 117-112 win. Oklahoma City led 59-48 at halftime, and Ajay Mitchell had 16 of those points. Gilgeous-Alexander’s load has grown because of who isn’t next to him.
Jalen Williams fractured his fibula and dislocated his left ankle against the Clippers on 25 October, and Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder in the same game. Both have had surgery and neither is expected back before 2 March at the earliest. Chet Holmgren has a knee problem expected to cost him about two months.
Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber have also been unavailable, and Caruso’s earliest listed return date was 4 November. His status for this game is the first thing to check, because he’s the defender this roster misses most after Wallace.
The results show what the injuries have done to the scoring. Oklahoma City made 5 of 32 threes in a 120-96 loss in Dallas on 28 October, and it lost to Houston three nights later. Even so, a team that won 64 games last season still ranks fifth in points allowed, and it beat Phoenix 125-114 in its first game without Williams and Wallace.
Friday’s trip to Memphis comes before this one, against a team scoring 121.2 a game through last week. The rotation will be short by Saturday, and Gilgeous-Alexander had already taken 31 shots with minutes still to play in Cleveland, so his legs are an open question.
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Washington Wizards: Davis at 27, Dybantsa at 21, and two straight wins built on defense 
Anthony Davis had 27 points and nine rebounds in Orlando, Kyshawn George scored 22 with four threes, and AJ Dybantsa added 21. Trae Young finished with 15 points and nine assists in a game Washington led 79-68 going into the fourth quarter.
That’s the most balanced line the Wizards have produced. Davis came into the week at 22.3 points and 9.2 rebounds a game, and George at 15.2 points. Dybantsa missed the opening week with a sprained ankle and played Friday’s Charlotte game on a minutes restriction, so 21 on Monday suggests he’s close to a full workload.
Young’s shooting is the weak part of the offense. He was at 39.0% from the field and 26.2% from three through six games, even with 10.2 assists a night. When his threes don’t fall, Washington’s half-court sets end with Davis posting up against a set defense, and that’s a slow way to score.
The defense has carried the last two wins. Charlotte made 12 of 56 threes against it, and Orlando had missed 18 of its last 20 threes going into the fourth quarter on Monday. Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr give this team length on the wings and at the rim.
The depth has taken hits. Justin Champagnie is out until February after surgery on a broken right foot, and Jamir Watkins tore his ACL. Washington also has to play Atlanta twice in three nights, on Wednesday at home and Friday on the road, before this trip.
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Washington Wizards: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards
Our prediction: Under on total points (ideally a line of 218.5 or higher)
The two teams’ scoring averages add up to 217.0 through Sunday, and both of those numbers were built with rest days this game won’t offer. Neither team shoots better than 31% from three, and each ranks in the top 11 in points allowed. Washington’s last two opponents scored 79 and 94.
The risk is Gilgeous-Alexander having a night like Monday’s and Davis answering him, which could pull the total up by itself. We accept that, because Oklahoma City’s supporting cast is depleted and tired legs tend to show up first in jump shots.
Totals weren’t available at the time of writing. We’d take the Under only at 1.45 or longer, and a line below 214 would be too low for us.
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