- 1 Lens vs Como: first meeting at Bollaert, and a Lens defence that hasn’t stopped anyone in Europe
- 2 Lens: Thauvin’s seven assists can’t hide a run of three defeats in five
- 3 Como: three goals a game in Europe, even with Kean and Diao missing
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Lens vs Como
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lens vs Como: first meeting at Bollaert, and a Lens defence that hasn’t stopped anyone in Europe 
Lens have conceded at least two goals in all three of their Champions League games this season. Como are averaging around three goals a game in Europe, and on Wednesday 4 November, 20:00 UK time, the two clubs meet for the first time at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
The league phase table shows how far apart they are in this competition. Lens are 27th after beating Slavia Prague 3-2 away and then losing 2-0 at home to Sporting and 3-0 at Club Brugge. Como are ninth, with home wins over RB Leipzig and Manchester United, the second of them 4-1, around a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord.
Bookmakers make the visitors favourites despite the trip north, pricing Como at 2.20, the draw at 4.10 and Lens at 3.00.
Lens lost Friday’s derby 1-0 at Lille, with Olivier Giroud scoring in the 87th minute. Como beat Venezia 1-0 on Sunday through a 43rd-minute penalty from their captain, Da Cunha, and that kept them fourth in Serie A after 10 rounds.
We see a mismatch in current output rather than in reputation. Over the last 10 matches Como have scored 2.1 goals per game and conceded 1.0, against 1.5 and 1.5 for Lens.
Lens: Thauvin’s seven assists can’t hide a run of three defeats in five 
Florian Thauvin has four goals and seven assists in Ligue 1, plus a Champions League goal. Nobody else at the club comes close to that output, with Ivanovic and Udol on two league goals each.
Yannick Cahuzac’s side had put together league wins over Lyon (2-1), Troyes (3-1) and Paris FC (2-1) before the Lille derby. They’ve dropped to ninth in Ligue 1, and five of their last 10 matches in all competitions have ended in defeat or a draw.
The defensive numbers explain why we can’t back them here. They’ve kept one clean sheet in their last 10, conceded 1.5 per game and failed to score in three of those matches.
Sporting and Club Brugge were both able to win comfortably against this back three. The 2-0 home loss to Sporting is the one that counts for this game, because it’s their only Champions League match at Bollaert so far and it brought no goal at all.
Injuries take away attacking and defensive options. Odsonne Edouard (groin), Ganiou (knee) and Sima are out, and Nawrocki and Chavez aren’t available either. Without Edouard, Ivanovic has to lead the line alone.
Lens do have one thing in their favour: they’ve taken two points per game in their last three at home. That’s a small sample, and Sporting beat them in one of the three.
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Como: three goals a game in Europe, even with Kean and Diao missing 
Tasos Douvikas has five Serie A goals and three in the Champions League. He has done that while Como have been without Moise Kean, and he’s priced at 2.10 to score again.
Nico Paz is the player we’d watch most closely. He has three goals and three assists in Serie A, and two goals and three assists in Europe, which makes him the most productive player on the pitch in this competition.
Cesc Fabregas’s side lost 2-0 to Frosinone in September, then won four league games in a row up to Sunday’s result. Over their last 10 they’ve won seven, with xG of 1.97 and xGA of 1.34.
The absence list is long but hasn’t slowed them. Kean, Diao, Chalobah, Rodriguez and Addai are all out, and several squad players aren’t registered for this competition. Baturina, with three goals and an assist in Serie A, has helped cover the gap.
Their concern is on the road. Their Champions League defeat at Feyenoord was their only away game so far in this competition, and they’ve taken 1.50 points per game away from home in their last four, well below the 2.67 they manage at the Sinigaglia.
Goals are expected here too. Both teams to score is 1.44 and over 2.5 goals 1.53, in line with last-10 averages of 3.0 and 3.1 total goals per game for these two clubs. We prefer the result market at those prices.
We accept that weakness and still side with them. They’ve conceded in all three of their European games, but a side averaging around three goals in the competition doesn’t need a clean sheet at Bollaert to win.
Probable lineup Lens: Risser; Aguilar, Baidoo, Todibo; Abdulhamid, Cuisance, Haidara, Udol; Thauvin, Ivanovic, Sotoca
Probable lineup Como: Butez; Couto, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Milla, Perrone; Da Cunha, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Free Football Prediction: Lens vs Como
Our prediction: Como to win at 2.20
Como are averaging around three goals a game in the Champions League, Lens have conceded seven in three, and the visitors have won seven of their last 10 in all competitions. We rate 2.20 as a fair price for that gap.
Motivation isn’t an issue for the visitors either. Como sit ninth, close to the top eight, and three points at Bollaert would strengthen that position.
Thauvin is the one Lens player capable of changing the game, and both sides have scored in six of Como’s last 10. If Lens score, we still expect Paz and Douvikas to find more space than Thauvin does.
The result we rate highest is a 2-1 away win, built on Lens’ failure to keep anyone out in Europe so far.
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