- 1 FC Twente vs Pafos: nine goals on Sunday, four Weghorst, one point for the visitors
- 2 FC Twente: 23 points, a +18 goal difference and one goal conceded in Europe
- 3 Pafos: one win in five, with 10 goals conceded in that run
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: FC Twente vs Pafos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Twente vs Pafos: nine goals on Sunday, four Weghorst, one point for the visitors 
Excelsior 0, FC Twente 9. Wout Weghorst scored four at Woudestein on Sunday, on 12, 32, 33 and 62 minutes, the last of them a penalty, and Sondre Orjasaeter became the first player this century to record five assists in an Eredivisie game.
That result needs a caveat. Excelsior played with ten men for all but about five minutes, so we’d read the margin with care. Daan Rots scored twice, with Thomas van den Belt, Jordy Bawuah and Ramiz Zerrouki also on the sheet, and Twente moved on to 23 points, fourth in the table and one behind Ajax.
Next is Pafos at De Grolsch Veste on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:00 UK time. Twente are sixth in the Conference League on six points with a 5-1 goal record, after a 1-0 win over Thun and a 4-1 win at Lincoln Red Imps.
Pafos are 27th on one point. They lost 3-1 at Atalanta in the opening round and drew 1-1 at home to Riga in the second, so their 2-4 goal record leaves them 21 places behind Thursday’s hosts.
Riga, the side Pafos couldn’t beat at home, have drawn both of their games in this competition, and Thun, who lost in Enschede, have yet to score in it. Twente’s 5-1 goal record is level with Monaco’s 5-1 at the top end of the table, and only Sint-Truiden, on 3-0, have conceded fewer among the sides with six points.
Twente are around 1.53 to win, the draw about 4.38 and Pafos about 6.46. This is the first meeting between the clubs, and no injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side.
FC Twente: 23 points, a +18 goal difference and one goal conceded in Europe 
John van den Brom’s side have won four of their last five, with one defeat in that run. Their goal difference in the league stands at +18 after 11 games.
Weghorst is the focal point. His four on Sunday came in a game where four team-mates also scored, and he’s expected to start alone up front in a 4-1-4-1, with Rots and Marko Pjaca in the line behind him.
The European record has been steady more than spectacular. Thun were beaten by a single goal in Enschede on 15 October, and the 4-1 at Lincoln Red Imps came a week later. Twente have conceded once in two games.
Twente were five up at half-time on Sunday, after Rots scored in stoppage time, and they added four more in the second half. Thursday comes four days after that game.
Domestic rivals are close by. Feyenoord lead on 25, Ajax have 24, and PSV and Twente are level on 23, so a European night falls in the middle of a tight title picture. Excelsior, beaten by nine, are 15th on 11 points with a goal difference of -12.
Ramiz Zerrouki sits in front of the back four and scored the second penalty on Sunday, and Ruud Nijstad and Robin Pröpper are the expected centre-back pair. Joel Drommel is the expected goalkeeper behind them.
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Pafos: one win in five, with 10 goals conceded in that run 
Pafos have won one of their last five, with three draws and a defeat. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 10 in those games, so they’ve been in open matches rather than tight ones.
Biel scored against Riga, a point that left Ricardo Sa Pinto’s side with one from a possible six. Atalanta scored three against them in Bergamo on the opening night of the league phase.
Cyprus has been kinder. The last league table we could confirm, from mid-October, had them fifth in the 1. Division with 11 points from six matches, three wins and a goal difference of +4. Away wins at AEK Larnaca (1-0) and Anorthosis (3-1) show they can travel.
The home results have been patchier. AEL Limassol won 2-0 in Paphos on 18 September, and APOEL held them to 0-0 on 19 October. Lele and Quina led their league scoring in that table with two goals each.
Pafos have scored in each Conference League game but have yet to keep a clean sheet in it. Two goals and four conceded is what the first two rounds have produced.
David Luiz is expected at centre-back alongside Mmaee, with Majecki in goal. Anderson Silva, Joao Correia and Biel are the expected front three, and Vlad Dragomir and Guga should supply them from midfield in Sa Pinto’s 4-3-3.
Probable lineup FC Twente: Drommel; Adelgaard, Nijstad, Pröpper, Van Rooij; Zerrouki; Pjaca, Van den Belt, Taha, Rots; Weghorst
Probable lineup Pafos: Majecki; Ioannou, David Luiz, Mmaee, Bruno Felipe; Guga, Alexandre Miguel, Dragomir; Biel, Anderson Silva, Joao Correia
Free Conference League Prediction: FC Twente vs Pafos
Our prediction: FC Twente to win (odds 1.53)
Twente have won both Conference League games, conceded once and just scored nine. Pafos have one point from two, have conceded four and have won one of their last five. Thursday’s price reflects that gap, and we agree with it.
Sunday’s scoreline came against ten men, so we’re not treating it as a guide to this game. Pafos can also score, with 10 goals in their last five, and a one-goal Twente win like the Thun game is a fair possibility.
The home win stays our pick at 1.53, and we expect a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline with Weghorst on the sheet again.
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