- 1 New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves: 8.8 threes a game against a Wolves team getting by without Edwards
- 2 New Orleans Pelicans: sixth in scoring, last from three and a defense allowing 117.8
- 3 Minnesota Timberwolves: 12.3 rebounds from Gobert and five scorers in double figures
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves: 8.8 threes a game against a Wolves team getting by without Edwards 
Anthony Edwards was averaging 33.2 points a game when he needed arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, a few days after scoring 47 in a 127-125 overtime loss in Cleveland, and Donte DiVincenzo was already out after Achilles surgery.
Minnesota has kept winning anyway. The Wolves went into this week at 4-3 with a scoring margin of +11.3 a game, sixth in the league in scoring at 120.0 and eighth in defense at 108.7 allowed. They beat the Clippers by 26 on 30 October, and they’re 6-1 against the spread.
New Orleans hosts them at the Smoothie King Center on Friday 6 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET. It’s the first meeting of the season between the two teams, and the Pelicans are 2-4 after an 0-4 start that came with defeats by three, one, six in overtime and 13 points.
To understand why this game leans the way it does, start with the three-point line. New Orleans makes 8.8 threes a game, the fewest in the NBA, on 31.2% shooting. Minnesota makes 15.0 on 37.8%, and it holds opponents to 31.2% from deep. That’s a gap of more than six made threes a night before anything else happens.
The schedule is close to even. Minnesota plays Milwaukee at home on Monday, then goes to Houston on Wednesday before flying to Louisiana. The Pelicans go to Memphis on Monday and host Utah on Wednesday. Each team gets Thursday off.
New Orleans Pelicans: sixth in scoring, last from three and a defense allowing 117.8 
A team that’s last in made threes shouldn’t rank sixth in scoring, and yet Jamahl Mosley’s Pelicans average 119.7 points a game. Zion Williamson leads them at 20.7, and four players are averaging 13 or more behind him.
Williamson also averages 3.2 steals, and the team’s ball pressure has been its most reliable weapon. Through five games New Orleans was taking the ball away 13.4 times a night, and Dejounte Murray has added 2.0 steals, 17.8 points and 6.0 assists in the four games he’s played.
Jeremiah Fears gives them a third handler at 13.0 points and 4.5 assists, and he had 22 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds in the 132-120 win over Sacramento on 29 October that ended the losing run. Saddiq Bey scores 15.2 and Derik Queen leads the team with 7.8 rebounds.
The defense is the weakness. New Orleans allows 117.8 points a game, 24th in the league, and it gave up a 23-point first-half lead in Denver in a 141-135 overtime loss on 24 October. Yves Missi (knee) is out, which leaves Queen and Williamson to handle most of the work inside.
Jordan Poole (ankle) is also out, and Trey Murphy III is day-to-day with a patellar problem. Murphy’s 2.0 threes a game are among the few reliable makes this roster has, so his status matters more than his 14.3 points suggest.
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Minnesota Timberwolves: 12.3 rebounds from Gobert and five scorers in double figures 
Take Edwards out and nobody on this roster averages 18 points, which is the reason I find Minnesota’s numbers more interesting than its record. Jaden McDaniels leads at 17.3, Ayo Dosunmu scores 15.3, LaMelo Ball 14.4 with 6.3 assists, Jonathan Kuminga 12.9 and Terrence Shannon Jr. 12.0.
Spreading the shots like that has made the offense harder to scheme against. Ball is hitting 2.9 threes a game, the most among those five, and the team as a whole ranks fourth in made threes. A defense that sells out to stop one player no longer has an obvious target.
Rudy Gobert does the rest. He’s pulling down 12.3 rebounds a game, third in the league, and the Wolves average 48.4 boards as a team, third overall, against 43.6 for their opponents. Against a Pelicans frontcourt without Missi, that should mean second chances on the misses and fewer of the transition runs New Orleans depends on.
The one concern is what happens on the road after a hard week. Minnesota lost 119-114 to Golden State, and it’s been favored only three times this season, winning two of those games. The Wolves have been better than the market expected, which is how a 4-3 team ends up 6-1 against the spread, but they haven’t yet shown they can handle being the team everyone prices in.
Turnovers will be the test on Friday. Ball and Dosunmu will have to deal with Williamson, Murray and a defense that lives on steals, and if they protect the ball, the Pelicans lose the main way they’ve been scoring.
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Our prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves to win
No prices had been posted for Friday at the time of writing, so check that the Minnesota moneyline is at 1.45 or better before playing it. If it opens shorter, I’d move to the Wolves on the handicap.
The case rests on the three-point line and the glass. Minnesota makes 6.2 more threes a game than New Orleans, and it out-rebounds its opponents by nearly five a night, while the Pelicans are allowing 117.8 points and are short of a center. Those are two lasting edges that don’t depend on anybody getting hot.
New Orleans will force turnovers and Williamson will get his points, and a home crowd after a soft Wednesday game against Utah helps. But the Wolves beat the Clippers by 26 without Edwards, and five players averaging 12 or more gives them depth that the Pelicans can’t match with Poole and Missi both out.
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