- 1 Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a 6-0 team against a top-five defense with six players out
- 2 Memphis Grizzlies: first in scoring, first in rebounding and 6-0 against the spread
- 3 Oklahoma City Thunder: 28th in scoring, fifth in defense and Gilgeous-Alexander carrying the rest
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a 6-0 team against a top-five defense with six players out 
Oklahoma City went into November with six players on the injury report, and three of them are rotation pieces it can’t replace from inside the building. Jalen Williams fractured his fibula and dislocated his left ankle against the Clippers on 25 October, Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder in the same game, and Chet Holmgren is out with a knee problem that’s expected to cost him about two months.
That list explains why the Thunder rank 28th in the league in scoring at 106.5 points per game. Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also unavailable, and Dort, Wiggins and Joe all left in the summer, so most of the wing depth from last season has gone.
The Grizzlies host the Thunder at FedExForum on Friday 6 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET, and they went into this week at 6-0 with a scoring margin of +15.2 a game.
Both teams have a heavy week before they get here. Oklahoma City plays Cleveland twice in three days, on Monday in Ohio and on Wednesday at home, while Memphis has New Orleans on Monday and Indiana on Wednesday, both at FedExForum. Neither team is on a back-to-back on Friday, but the Thunder will have done the traveling.
What makes this game worth a close look is that the two teams are built to do opposite things. Memphis has taken the league lead in points and rebounds. Oklahoma City is still allowing only 107.0 points a game, fifth in the NBA, on the strength of its defensive habits alone, and the outcome depends on whether that defense can survive an opponent that gets so many extra possessions.
Memphis Grizzlies: first in scoring, first in rebounding and 6-0 against the spread 
The Grizzlies score 121.2 points per game, the best mark in the NBA, and allow 106.0, the third-lowest. This is the same franchise that traded Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah at the 2026 deadline and Ja Morant to Portland in June.
Rebounding is where the margin comes from. Memphis averages 49.8 boards a game to its opponents’ 41.7, a gap of eight that turns into second shots on nearly every trip. Zach Edey starts at center, and Cameron Boozer, the third pick in June’s draft, is pulling down 10.5 a night.
Boozer has also become the second playmaker. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists, and he had the first triple-double of his career in Portland on 29 October with 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists in a 124-103 win. Cedric Coward adds 13.4 points and 8.6 rebounds, and that gives Memphis three players near double figures on the glass when Edey is counted.
The outside shooting backs all of that up. The Grizzlies make 16.0 threes a game, second in the league, and Ty Jerome leads them with 25.8 points after opening the season with 45 against Utah. Jerome has played five of the six games because of a sore back, and his status is the one thing I’d check on Friday afternoon.
Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Quinten Post (ankle) are both day-to-day. Memphis has also covered the spread in all six of its games, and only two of those six went over the total, which fits a team that wins by defending rather than by trading baskets.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: 28th in scoring, fifth in defense and Gilgeous-Alexander carrying the rest 
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 26.0 points, and the next man on the list is Ajay Mitchell at 16.5. After that the scoring falls away quickly: Jared McCain at 10.8, Isaiah Hartenstein at 9.5 and center Aday Mara at 5.8.
The three-point numbers show what the injuries have cost. Oklahoma City makes 10.0 threes a game, 28th in the league, on 30.9% shooting. In a 120-96 loss in Dallas on 28 October it made 5 of 32 from deep, a season low, and Cooper Flagg had 26 points and eight assists against a defense that couldn’t get stops without offense to set it up.
Three nights later Houston beat the Thunder 119-98, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s 26 points weren’t close to enough. Those two defeats came by a combined 45 points, after a 4-0 start that included a 116-104 win in San Antonio and a 125-114 win over Phoenix in the first game after Williams and Wallace went down.
The defense has held up better than anyone could have expected. Opponents are scoring 107.0 a game, and only one of Oklahoma City’s six games has gone over the total. Hartenstein is pulling down 9.2 rebounds, Mara blocks 1.8 shots in limited minutes, and Mitchell’s 1.8 steals give the perimeter some bite.
Against Memphis the rebounding is what worries me. The Thunder average 45.3 boards a game, 11th in the league, and they’ll have one reliable big man to deal with Edey and Boozer. Cleveland, second in the league in scoring, gets the first two looks at this lineup this week, so Friday’s game will arrive after two nights against another strong frontcourt.
Probable lineup Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, K. Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein
Free NBA Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Our prediction: Memphis Grizzlies on the handicap
No line had been posted for Friday at the time of writing, and the Memphis moneyline may well open below our 1.45 floor. The handicap is the better way in, at 1.45 or better and up to around -7.5.
Memphis has an eight-rebound edge over its opponents and 16.0 threes a game, while Oklahoma City makes 10.0. Those six extra threes are worth 18 points before the Thunder’s defense gets to do anything about them, and it’s hard to see a roster missing Williams, Wallace, Holmgren and Caruso making that up over 48 minutes.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the reason this won’t be a blowout from the opening tip, and Oklahoma City’s defense should keep the score down in the first half. But the Grizzlies have covered all six of their games, they’ll be at home with no travel all week, and the Thunder’s last two road games were lost by 24 and 21.
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