- 1 Monaco vs Nordsjælland: six points from six against five draws in October
- 2 Monaco: 3-0 against Freiburg, fourth in Ligue 1 before Sunday
- 3 Nordsjælland: one win in eight, and a defence missing Ankersen
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Monaco vs Nordsjælland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Monaco vs Nordsjælland: six points from six against five draws in October
Nordsjælland drew five games in a row in October. Odense, Hearts, Lyngby, CSKA Sofia and Silkeborg all took a point off them between 9 and 25 October, by scores of 0-0, 1-1, 3-3, 2-2 and 1-1.
The run ended with a 1-0 Danish Cup win at Esbjerg on 28 October, and then a 3-2 home defeat to Midtjylland on Sunday. On Thursday 5 November they visit Monaco at the Stade Louis II in the third round of the Conference League league phase, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time.
Two of those draws came in this competition. Nordsjælland drew 1-1 at Hearts on the opening night and 2-2 at home to CSKA Sofia a week later, and their two points leave them 19th.
Monaco have the maximum six. They won 2-1 in Sofia against CSKA on 15 October, then beat Freiburg 3-0 at home a week later. Five goals scored and one conceded puts them sixth after two rounds.
The Danish side’s league position is better than their European one. Before Sunday they were fourth in the Superliga with 20 points from 12 games, five wins, five draws and two defeats.
The prices are Monaco 1.52, the draw 4.75 and Nordsjælland 5.75. We think the home side’s European form and Nordsjælland’s absences justify the favourite’s tag.
Monaco: 3-0 against Freiburg, fourth in Ligue 1 before Sunday 
Monaco went into this weekend fourth in Ligue 1 with 15 points from eight games: four wins, three draws and one defeat, with 11 goals scored and seven conceded.
Their last home game in the league was a 1-1 draw with Lille, Edan Diop scoring, with Monaco holding 64% of the ball and putting six shots on target. On Sunday they were 2-0 down at half-time at Paris FC after Lassine Sinayoko scored twice in six minutes before the break.
The Freiburg win is the clearest guide to how they play at home in Europe. Freiburg arrived in the Principality having just lost at Leverkusen and left without a goal, beaten 3-0.
Paris Brunner has four league goals across Monaco’s last ten Ligue 1 matches, the most in the squad, and Edan Diop and Lamine Camara have two each. Aleksandr Golovin leads them with three assists in the same spell.
The league numbers are steady rather than dominant: a goal difference of plus four from eight games, and an average of 1.5 goals scored across their last ten Ligue 1 matches. In Europe the margins have been wider, five scored and one conceded in two games.
Three players are doubts: Ansu Fati with a hamstring problem, Eric Dier with a muscle injury, and Stanis Idumbo. Lukas Hradecky has kept two clean sheets across those ten league games.
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Nordsjælland: one win in eight, and a defence missing Ankersen 
Nordsjælland have won one of their last eight matches in all competitions, the cup tie at Esbjerg. Before that came the five draws, and after it the 3-2 home defeat to Midtjylland on Sunday.
Their Superliga record had been built on avoiding defeat. They’d lost two of their first 12 league games, and Midtjylland’s win in Farum was the third. Five wins from 13 is a modest return for a side that sat fourth going into the weekend.
They score often enough. Eighteen league goals in 12 games before Sunday, three more against Midtjylland, and three in two European matches. The issue is at the other end: 14 conceded in the league before this weekend and three more on Sunday.
The Lyngby and CSKA games produced ten goals between them, 3-3 away and 2-2 at home in Farum. Nordsjælland scored five times in those two matches and won neither.
Peter Ankersen is suspended for Thursday. Victor Nelsson is a doubt with a shoulder problem, Araphat Mohammed is out with a cruciate ligament injury, and Souleymane Alio is also injured.
Their one league-phase away game so far ended 1-1 at Hearts on 15 October. Hearts have since lost 2-0 at Trabzonspor, and Monaco have taken six points from six.
Probable lineup Monaco: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Nordsjælland: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Monaco vs Nordsjælland
Our prediction: Monaco to win (1.52)
Monaco have won both European games and conceded once. Nordsjælland have won one of their last eight in all competitions and lost their most recent game at home.
We accept that Monaco’s weekend at Paris FC went badly at half-time, and that Fati, Dier and Idumbo are all doubts. Nordsjælland also score in most games, so a clean sheet isn’t part of our case.
The absence of Ankersen, and possibly Nelsson, hits a defence that conceded 14 league goals in 12 games before letting in three more on Sunday. At 1.52, Monaco to win is the pick, backed by a home European record of one game, one win and no goals conceded.
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