- 1 Getafe vs Brighton & Hove Albion: a 3-1 reprieve at the Coliseum against the Premier League’s best defence
- 2 Getafe: 18th before Sunday, unbeaten at home in the league, beaten 5-2 at home in Europe
- 3 Brighton & Hove Albion: six league clean sheets, and no goal in Jablonec
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Getafe vs Brighton & Hove Albion
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Getafe vs Brighton & Hove Albion: a 3-1 reprieve at the Coliseum against the Premier League’s best defence
Yasin Ayari scored the only goal at the Etihad on Saturday, and Brighton won at Manchester City for the first time. Bart Verbruggen made seven saves, City lost a second straight Premier League game, and Fabian Hürzeler’s side moved up to third.
Four days earlier Brighton had gone out of the Carabao Cup on the same ground, beaten 4-3 on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Their next trip is to the Coliseum on Thursday 5 November for the third round of the Conference League league phase. Kick-off is 20:00 UK time.
Getafe come into it on the back of their best result in weeks. They beat Sevilla 3-1 on Sunday afternoon, coming from behind after Kike Salas had put the visitors ahead on 19 minutes. Enes Ünal, Martín Satriano and Orel Mangala scored in the last 22 minutes plus stoppage time.
That win followed a bad fortnight. Getafe lost 5-2 at home to Lugano in this competition on 22 October, and José Bordalás said afterwards that his squad looked “comparable to a second division side” at this level. Three days later they lost 4-0 at Athletic Club.
In Europe, Getafe have one point from two games after opening with a 1-1 draw at Universitatea Craiova. Brighton have four, from a 4-0 home win over Kauno Žalgiris and a 0-0 draw at Jablonec.
Brighton are 1.91 to win. We think the more reliable angle sits in the goals markets, given how rarely Brighton concede and how rarely Getafe had scored before Sunday.
Getafe: 18th before Sunday, unbeaten at home in the league, beaten 5-2 at home in Europe 
Getafe went into the Sevilla game 18th in La Liga with nine points from ten matches. The 3-1 win takes them to 12 points from 11.
Goals have been the issue all season. Before Sunday they averaged 0.5 a game in the league, and they’d lost three of their previous five league matches without scoring in any of them: 1-0 at Real Betis, 3-0 at Barcelona and 4-0 at Athletic.
The Coliseum has been their stronger ground in La Liga. They were unbeaten in five home league games before Sevilla arrived, with three goals conceded. Lugano’s visit was the exception, with the Swiss side 3-1 up after 26 minutes and 5-2 winners at the end.
The fallout was public. Bordalás said promises made to him “year after year” hadn’t been kept, president Ángel Torres replied on Cadena SER that the coach was free to leave, and players and staff held a meeting the next day to calm things down. Sunday’s win was the first result since that row that went their way in the league.
Christantus Uche has damaged his cruciate ligament and meniscus and won’t play again before April, and Zaid Romero is out with a muscle injury. Mangala, who had been on the injury list last week, scored the third goal in stoppage time against Sevilla.
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Brighton & Hove Albion: six league clean sheets, and no goal in Jablonec 
Brighton have kept six Premier League clean sheets this season, more than any other side, and they’ve won five of their last six league games without conceding in any of those wins.
The Etihad result was their first win at the ground. Ayari scored in the first half, Jack Hinshelwood had a chance to add a second, and City hit the crossbar through Iliman Ndiaye before Verbruggen kept out the rest of their attempts.
They’re third in the table, within two points of City and Arsenal. They also beat Arsenal in September, so both of the sides directly above them have already lost to Hürzeler’s team this season.
Europe has looked different. Hürzeler rotated heavily in Jablonec on 22 October, and Brighton had around 70% of the ball and 15 attempts without scoring, the first time they’d failed to score in any competition this season. Verbruggen made a late save to keep the point.
Georginio Rutter set up one goal and scored another in the League Cup draw at City, and he and Ibrahim Osman were both used in Jablonec. With Premier League games coming every weekend, we expect a mixed side again on Thursday.
Probable lineup Getafe: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Brighton & Hove Albion: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Getafe vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Our prediction: Both teams to score: No (1.72)
Brighton’s last away game in Europe ended 0-0, and their league record is built on clean sheets: six from nine games. Getafe averaged half a goal a game in La Liga before Sunday’s win.
We accept the risk. Getafe scored twice and conceded five against Lugano at the Coliseum, and Sunday showed they can score when Ünal and Satriano both play. We still expect at least one clean sheet, and the likelier one is Brighton’s.
At 1.72, we prefer this to Brighton to win at 1.91. Hürzeler’s rotation in Jablonec cost Brighton goals, but it didn’t cost them their defensive record.
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