- 1 New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers: the Metropolitan Division’s last-placed team and its weakest attack
- 2 New York Rangers: a 90.48% penalty kill and a goalie who took over in October
- 3 Philadelphia Flyers: 23.5 shots for, 30.3 against, and 1.93 goals a game
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers: the Metropolitan Division’s last-placed team and its weakest attack 
Philadelphia is last in the Metropolitan Division at 3-8-4, with 10 points from 15 games. The Flyers opened the season 0-6-3, a run that included a 7-0 home loss to Pittsburgh and a 5-1 defeat in Boston.
They visit Madison Square Garden on Thursday 5 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET, to face a Rangers team that’s 7-6-1 and fifth in the division. One schedule listing had the start at 8:00pm, so the time is worth confirming on the day.
The Rangers haven’t won since 19 October. They lost 5-4 in Toronto, 7-4 in Ottawa and 6-3 at home to Los Angeles, and then went six days without a game before Sunday’s home date with Edmonton.
The biggest change from last season sits in the crease. Igor Shesterkin is out for the year with a right knee injury suffered at Washington on 9 October, and Dylan Garand has taken over the starting job.
New York won three of last season’s four meetings, including 6-3 and 6-2 in Philadelphia. The Flyers’ only win in that series came 3-2 in overtime at the Garden on 26 February.
Both teams play at home on Sunday and again on Tuesday, so neither comes in on a back-to-back. Philadelphia hosts Utah and Minnesota, New York hosts Edmonton and St. Louis.
New York Rangers: a 90.48% penalty kill and a goalie who took over in October 
New York’s penalty kill has stopped 90.48% of opposing power plays, the strongest part of Mike Sullivan’s team so far. Opponents have needed even-strength goals to beat the Rangers.
Adam Fox is running the offense from the blue line with 17 points, one goal and 16 assists. Alexis Lafreniere leads in goals with nine and has 16 points, while Mika Zibanejad (11 points), J.T. Miller and Kartye (10 each) fill out the scoring.
Garand is 4-5-1 with a 2.69 goals-against average and an .899 save percentage. Shesterkin had been at 1.79 and .927 in his four games before the injury, and Korpisalo is also on injured reserve until around 9 November.
The three-game skid exposed the defense. New York conceded 18 goals in those three defeats after allowing 24 across its first 11 games, and the goal difference went from plus 9 to plus 2.
The attack averages 3.14 goals on 24.6 shots a game, a high conversion rate that’s covered for the shot share. The Rangers are allowing 26.3 shots a night, nearly two more than they take.
Schneider, Durzi and Tolvanen were listed day-to-day at the end of October, and Veleno is on long-term injured reserve until January.
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Philadelphia Flyers: 23.5 shots for, 30.3 against, and 1.93 goals a game 
Philadelphia has scored 29 goals in 15 games, 1.93 a night, and allowed 51. The shot numbers explain most of it: the Flyers take 23.5 shots a game and give up 30.3.
Matvei Michkov has nine of those 29 goals and 11 points. Trevor Zegras leads the team with 13 points, four goals and nine assists, and Martone is third with six. After that, the scoring falls away quickly.
Rick Tocchet’s team did show signs of life in mid-October, beating Colorado 3-2 at home on 19 October and Buffalo 3-1 on the road two days later. Since then it’s three straight losses: 5-4 to Anaheim, 4-3 in overtime to Columbus and 5-2 in Washington.
The goaltending hasn’t bailed anyone out. Dan Vladar is 2-3-2 with a 3.26 goals-against average and an .888 save percentage,. Woll is 1-5-2 at 3.13 and .899.
The power play converts at 16.33%, which is a problem against a penalty kill as sharp as New York’s. Philadelphia’s own kill is better, at 82.0%.
The Flyers could get Konecny (lower body) and Tippett (upper body) back, with estimated return dates of 3 November and 1 November, but neither return was confirmed at the time of writing. Ristolainen (hand) is out until around 11 November and Grebenkin is out until February after back surgery.
Probable lineup New York Rangers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Philadelphia Flyers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers
Our prediction: New York Rangers to win
I’m backing the Rangers at home. Philadelphia scores 1.93 goals a game and is outshot by almost seven a night, and its 16.33% power play runs into a penalty kill working at 90.48%.
The worry with New York is the recent defense, 18 goals allowed in three games, and a starting goalie at .899 rather than Shesterkin. Garand only needs to be ordinary, though, against an attack that was shut out by Pittsburgh and held to one goal in Boston.
New York won three of four meetings last season and scored six in both trips to Philadelphia. No odds had been posted at the time of writing, so the Rangers price needs checking before puck drop.
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