- 1 Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: three points against four, and two leaky defences
- 2 Anderlecht: 4-0 down in Ghent, then 4-1 at home
- 3 Red Bull Salzburg: six conceded in two European games, nine scored in three domestic wins
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: three points against four, and two leaky defences 
Salzburg lost 4-0 at home to AC Milan on 15 October. A week later they went to Celje and drew 2-2, which means the Austrian side have conceded six goals in their last two Europa League matches.
Those two games undid a good start. Salzburg had won in Sofia against Levski on the opening night, and they now sit on four points after three rounds, in the crowded part of the table between the play-off places and elimination.
Anderlecht have one point fewer. Vítor Bruno’s side lost 2-1 at home to Lyon in September and 1-0 at Dinamo Zagreb on 15 October, before winning 3-0 at Jagiellonia a week later to get their campaign moving.
The match is at the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 17:45 UK time. The market has Anderlecht at 1.90, the draw at 3.75 and Salzburg at 3.50.
Both sides have taken heavy defeats in the last three weeks, and both have recovered since. The question for Thursday is which recovery is more convincing, and how each defence copes with the other’s attack.
I think the answer favours the home side, mainly because of what Salzburg’s two European results say about their defending away from the Austrian league.
Anderlecht: 4-0 down in Ghent, then 4-1 at home 
Anderlecht’s October was erratic. They lost 1-0 in Zagreb, went out of the Belgian Cup with a 2-1 defeat at Beerschot three days later, won 3-0 in Białystok, lost 4-0 at Gent on 25 October and then beat Westerlo 4-1 at home on Saturday.
That run has left them fifth in the Pro League with 19 points from ten games. Vítor Bruno’s record of six wins, one draw and three defeats is respectable, though the gap to Club Brugge at the top is already eight points.
Home form is the strongest part of their season. Anderlecht beat Kortrijk 1-0, drew 0-0 with Genk, beat Zulte Waregem 3-0 and then scored four against Westerlo. The one home defeat came in Europe, 2-1 against a Lyon side that went on to win its first two games.
The goals are spread around. Tawfik Bentayeb is the club’s top league scorer with three, with Adriano Bertaccini and Marten Winkler on two each, so there isn’t one player Salzburg can focus on.
The Gent result is the warning. Conceding four away from home only ten days ago means this side can’t be trusted to keep things tight, and Salzburg have scored in each of their last four matches.
The Lyon defeat also looks less damaging now. Paulo Fonseca’s side won their first two European games before losing 3-0 at Hoffenheim, and their coach blamed a lack of aggression for that defeat. Anderlecht’s other European defeat, in Zagreb, came by a single goal.
The 3-0 at Jagiellonia, though, was exactly what was needed: a clean sheet away from home in Europe, against a side that was at home and needing points.
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Red Bull Salzburg: six conceded in two European games, nine scored in three domestic wins 
Domestically, Salzburg have picked themselves up. They beat Altach 3-0 on 18 October, won 3-1 at LASK on 25 October and then won 3-2 at Bregenz in the third round of the Austrian Cup on 28 October.
The European picture is less settled. The Milan defeat was the heaviest of their season, and a week later they could only draw 2-2 at Celje, a side Salzburg would normally expect to beat.
Before that, their league form had wobbled. Salzburg drew 0-0 at Grazer AK on 10 October and lost 2-1 to Blau-Weiß Linz earlier in the autumn, alongside a 3-0 win over Sturm Graz.
The pattern across the last eight games is clear enough. Against domestic opposition they score freely, three goals in each of their last three, but in Europe the defence has given up six in two matches.
The cup tie at Bregenz on 28 October is a fair summary of where Salzburg are. They won it 3-2, so the attack did its job again, but Bregenz still scored twice against them three days after LASK had scored once.
A trip to Brussels on a Thursday, between a cup game and a weekend league fixture, isn’t the easiest place to fix that. Salzburg have been on the road for three of their last four matches.
Four points from three games also means a defeat would leave them on the wrong side of the mid-table pack with half the league phase gone.
Probable lineup Anderlecht: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Red Bull Salzburg: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg
Our prediction: Anderlecht to win (1.90)
Anderlecht haven’t lost a league game at home since the start of September and scored four against Westerlo on Saturday. Their only home defeat came against Lyon, a side that won its first two European games.
Salzburg have conceded six goals in their last two Europa League matches, including four at home to Milan, and their good run of results has come against Austrian opposition. The away record in Europe since the opening night is one draw at Celje.
The Gent defeat stops me from calling this comfortable, and a draw is possible. I’d still back Anderlecht at 1.90 to win at home, where they’ve been far steadier than on their travels.
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