- 1 Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks: life after Hellebuyck meets the NHL’s leakiest defense
- 2 Winnipeg Jets: Kyle Connor has 11 goals for an attack ranked 29th
- 3 Vancouver Canucks: Pettersson’s 16 points can’t cover a 65% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks: life after Hellebuyck meets the NHL’s leakiest defense 
Winnipeg traded Connor Hellebuyck to New Jersey on 23 October, a month after the three-time Vezina winner asked to leave and was suspended for not reporting to training camp. The Jets got back forward Dawson Mercer, goaltender Nico Daws, prospect Alexander Command, a 2029 second-round pick, a 2027 seventh-round pick and Nick Bjugstad, who is on long-term injured reserve.
The results since have been rough. Winnipeg hasn’t won a game since a 5-2 home win over Minnesota on 13 October, a run of eight games at 0-6-2, and the four defeats after the trade came by a combined score of 8-18: 1-2 against Montreal, 1-5 and 2-5 against Florida, and 4-6 in Tampa.
Vancouver might be the right opponent to end that run. The Canucks were 3-11-1 through 15 games, they allow 4.53 goals per game, and their penalty kill has stopped only 65.4% of opposing power plays. Between 4 October and 25 October they went ten games without a win.
The game is on Thursday 5 November at Canada Life Centre, with puck drop at 7:00pm ET, which is midnight UK time. Winnipeg comes home from games in Carolina on Sunday and Montreal on Tuesday. Vancouver hosts Anaheim on Tuesday night and then flies east, so the Canucks arrive on a day’s rest after a long trip.
Both teams are short on goaltending, which is why the matchup reads more clearly than the two records do. Winnipeg’s Stuart Skinner has a .899 save percentage. Vancouver’s Kevin Lankinen is at .812 with a 6.17 goals-against average, and even Leevi Merilainen, the better of the two Canucks goalies so far, sits at .898.
Winnipeg Jets: Kyle Connor has 11 goals for an attack ranked 29th 
Kyle Connor has scored 11 of Winnipeg’s 34 goals. Nobody else on the roster has more than six, and the Jets average 2.43 goals per game, 29th out of 32 teams.
The supporting cast hasn’t kept pace. Mark Scheifele has 12 points but only two goals, Cole Perfetti has 6 goals and 11 points, and Neal Pionk leads the defense with 10 points. Scott Arniel’s power play has scored 7 times on 39 chances, 17.9%.
In goal, Skinner has taken most of the work since Hellebuyck’s exit. He’s 3-3-3 in nine appearances with a 2.97 goals-against average. Clay Stevenson is 1-3-0 with an .870 save percentage, and Daws has played twice for his new team, losing once, with a .913.
The defensive numbers are mediocre rather than disastrous. Winnipeg allows 3.36 goals per game, 22nd in the league, and its penalty kill sits at 71.8%. Five of the eight games in the winless run were decided by one goal, including overtime losses in Chicago and Dallas and a 2-1 defeat in St. Louis.
Coming home should help. The Jets’ last three losses came on the road in Tampa and Florida and at home against Florida, two of the best teams in the East. Thursday is their first home game since 27 October and comes against a team that has allowed six goals or more four times this season.
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Vancouver Canucks: Pettersson’s 16 points can’t cover a 65% penalty kill 
Elias Pettersson leads Vancouver with 4 goals and 12 assists. Brock Boeser and Jonathan Lekkerimaki have 12 points each, and Lekkerimaki’s six goals are the most on the team. Filip Hronek has 11 points from defense, 10 of them assists.
The Canucks score 3.00 goals per game, which is more than Winnipeg does. The trouble sits at the other end of the ice, where they’ve allowed 4.53 per game. Edmonton scored nine on them on 1 October, Carolina scored seven on 8 October, and the Rangers and Carolina again both reached six.
The penalty kill is the worst number on the sheet. At 65.4%, Vancouver concedes on roughly one in three shorthanded situations. That’s the area where Winnipeg’s struggling power play has the most room to improve on Thursday.
Lankinen’s season explains a lot of the damage. He’s 1-7-0 in eight appearances with an .812 save percentage. Merilainen has been steadier at 2-4-1 with a 3.33 goals-against average, and he’s made eight starts to Lankinen’s seven, which makes him the likelier choice for Manny Malhotra in Winnipeg.
There’s a small sign of life. Vancouver won 6-5 in overtime in Anaheim on 27 October, its first win since 3 October, then lost 3-2 in San Jose two nights later. Away from home the Canucks are 2-6-1, and both road wins needed overtime: in Edmonton on opening night and in Anaheim.
Probable lineup Winnipeg Jets: Lines not announced at time of publication. Projected core: Stuart Skinner in goal; Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi, Adam Lowry, Alex Iafallo, Dawson Mercer; Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg on defense.
Probable lineup Vancouver Canucks: Lines not announced at time of publication. Projected core: Leevi Merilainen in goal; Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Linus Karlsson, Jake DeBrusk; Filip Hronek on defense.
Free NHL Prediction: Winnipeg Jets vs Vancouver Canucks
Our prediction: Winnipeg Jets to win (moneyline, overtime included)
I’m backing Winnipeg to end the streak at home. The Jets face a defense allowing 4.53 goals a game, a penalty kill at 65.4% and a goaltending pair whose better half sits under .900, and they’ll do it in their own building while Vancouver flies in from the West Coast, two time zones east, after a Tuesday home game.
The argument against is simple enough: Winnipeg hasn’t won in eight games and scores fewer than two and a half goals a night. But five of those eight games were one-goal results, and none of the opponents in that run defended as badly as Vancouver has this season. Connor’s 11 goals give the Jets a finisher the Canucks will struggle to contain on the power play.
No odds had been posted at the time of writing. Check the price before betting: if the Jets moneyline comes in under 1.45, the alternative is Kyle Connor to score at any time. Confirm the starting goalies on Thursday morning, since a Lankinen start for Vancouver would strengthen the case.
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