- 1 Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars: second in the Metropolitan hosts the NHL’s best defense and its 26th-ranked attack
- 2 Washington Capitals: Tuch’s 10 goals and a 6-2-0 record at Capital One Arena
- 3 Dallas Stars: Oettinger’s 1.69 GAA, and 18 and 19 shots in the last two games
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars: second in the Metropolitan hosts the NHL’s best defense and its 26th-ranked attack 
Washington sits second in the Metropolitan Division at 8-4-0, with 16 points from 12 games. The Capitals score 3.58 goals a game and allow 3.08, and six of their eight wins have come at Capital One Arena, where they’re 6-2-0.
Dallas comes in with the opposite profile. The Stars allow 2.23 goals per game, the fewest in the NHL, and their penalty kill is working at 93.48%. They also score only 2.62 a game, which ranks 26th of 32, and that number has got worse over the past week.
Dallas won five straight between 14 and 25 October, then lost 5-1 to New Jersey and 5-2 to Montreal on home ice. The Stars managed 18 shots in the first of those games and 19 in the second, and Glen Gulutzan pointed to the way his team was moving the puck through the neutral zone.
The game is on Tuesday 3 November at Capital One Arena, puck drop at 7:00pm ET. Washington hosts Minnesota on Sunday afternoon before this one. Dallas hosted Columbus on Saturday night and then has two days off before flying east.
We’ve looked at both sets of numbers and lean towards the home side. The Stars’ defense keeps games tight, but a team that can’t get to 20 shots against New Jersey or Montreal will find it hard to keep pace with a Capitals attack averaging 3.58 goals a game.
Washington Capitals: Tuch’s 10 goals and a 6-2-0 record at Capital One Arena 
Alex Tuch has scored 10 goals in 12 games, twice as many as anyone else on the roster. He scored the overtime winner against his former team, Buffalo, on 24 October, a 4-3 game in which Dylan Strome scored twice, and he has 12 points in total.
Strome matches Tuch with 12 points, built mostly on nine assists. Jordan Kyrou adds 11 points, and Jakob Chychrun has eight assists from the blue line. Spencer Carbery also has goals from further down the roster: Ryan Leonard and Cole Hutson have four each.
The home record is the base of this pick. Washington beat Pittsburgh 5-3, the Rangers 3-1, Montreal 5-4, New Jersey 4-2, Buffalo 4-3 in overtime and Philadelphia 5-2 in Washington. The two home defeats came against Seattle, 5-3, and Los Angeles, 5-2. Away from home the results have been mixed: a 5-2 win in Carolina on opening night, defeats in Tampa Bay and Carolina, then the 4-3 win in Nashville.
The special teams are only average. The power play has converted 6 of 33 chances, 18.18%, and the penalty kill sits at 79.49%. Dallas’s power play runs at 20.0%, and its 93.48% penalty kill makes Washington’s own power play an unlikely source of goals.
Logan Thompson has played eight games and is 5-3-0 with a 2.78 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. Charlie Lindgren is 3-1-0 in four appearances. Washington won 4-3 in Nashville on 29 October, its third straight victory, before hosting the Wild on Sunday.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Dallas Stars: Oettinger’s 1.69 GAA, and 18 and 19 shots in the last two games 
Jake Oettinger has kept Dallas in most of its games. He’s 6-3-1 with a 1.69 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage in ten games. Casey DeSmith has played the other three and is 1-2-0 with a 2.94 average. The Stars’ 7-5-1 record leaves them fourth in the Central Division with 15 points.
The Stars kept opponents to two goals or fewer in eight of their first 11 games. Three of their wins were shutouts: 5-0 against San Jose, 4-0 against Buffalo and 4-0 against Chicago.
Scoring is where Dallas has stalled. Mikko Rantanen leads the team with 16 points, six goals and 10 assists, and Jason Robertson has 13. Roope Hintz has five goals and Wyatt Johnston 10 points in 11 games, but 2.62 goals a game still ranks 26th in the league.
The injury list has added to that. Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene have been among the recent absences, which takes a defenseman and a center out of Gulutzan’s lineup. Miro Heiskanen has nine points from the back end and Thomas Harley has five assists.
Both of the last two defeats came against Eastern teams, with New Jersey and Montreal scoring five each. Columbus had also won the last three meetings with Dallas going into Saturday’s game.
Probable lineup Washington Capitals: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dallas Stars: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars
Our prediction: Washington Capitals to win (including overtime and shootout)
We’re taking the Capitals at home. They’re 6-2-0 at Capital One Arena, they score 3.58 goals a game and Tuch has 10 goals in 12 games. Dallas has scored three goals in its last two games combined and hasn’t reached 20 shots in either. Washington has scored four or more in five of its eight home games.
Oettinger is the main risk. A .917 goaltender can steal a 2-1 game on any night, and Dallas has won three times in overtime or a shootout already. That’s why we prefer the market that includes overtime, rather than a regulation-only bet.
Prices for Tuesday weren’t posted at the time of writing. We’d want 1.85 or better on Washington; if the Capitals open as clear favourites below that number, we’d pass rather than take a shorter price.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply