- 1 Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche: 27 goals in 13 games against an offense scoring 4.15 a night
- 2 Chicago Blackhawks: 0-5 on the road, 4-4 at home, and a power play at 10%
- 3 Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon at 22 points, with Manson out for eight weeks
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche: 27 goals in 13 games against an offense scoring 4.15 a night 
Nathan MacKinnon has 22 points in 13 games, 8 goals and 14 assists, and on his own he’s within five points of the entire Chicago goal total. The Blackhawks have scored 27 times this season, 31st of 32 teams, and that’s the gap Colorado brings to the United Center on Monday.
Puck drop is 8:00pm ET on Monday 2 November. Before Saturday’s games, Chicago was 4-9-0 with 8 points, last in the Central, and Colorado was 7-5-1 with 15 points, third in the division.
The Blackhawks’ scoring problem has two parts. They’re putting up 2.08 goals a game, and their power play has converted 4 of 40 chances, a 10.0% rate. They’ve been shut out twice already, 6-0 at Utah on October 1 and 4-0 at home to Dallas on October 17.
Colorado’s season has been streakier than its goal difference suggests. The Avalanche have alternated wins and losses for most of October, and they’ve been far better at Ball Arena, where they’re 5-1-1, than on the road, where they’re 2-4-0. Their last road game was a 6-2 loss at Nashville on October 25.
Both teams have Sunday off after playing on Saturday, Chicago at Boston in the afternoon and Colorado at home to Calgary late in the evening. Colorado then plays in Columbus on Tuesday, so Monday is the first half of a back-to-back for Jared Bednar’s team, and the goaltending choice will reflect that.
Chicago Blackhawks: 0-5 on the road, 4-4 at home, and a power play at 10% 
Every Chicago win this season has come at the United Center. Jeff Blashill’s team beat St. Louis 4-2, Pittsburgh 5-3, Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime and Los Angeles 2-1 at home, and it’s lost all five road games it played before Saturday’s trip to Boston.
The win over the Kings on October 27 is a fair picture of what Chicago needs. Spencer Knight stopped 25 of 26 shots, and two goals were enough. When the Blackhawks have to score three or more, they’ve rarely managed it, and two nights later they lost 4-1 in Detroit.
Knight has carried a heavy workload, with 11 of the 13 starts. He’s 4-7-0 with a 3.21 goals-against average and an .897 save percentage, and backup Arvid Soderblom is 0-2-0 with an .820 save percentage, which explains why Blashill has leaned so hard on his starter.
Scoring is spread thin. Patrick Kane leads the team with 8 points, all but one of them assists, and he’s a -15. Connor Bedard has 3 goals and 7 points after missing time early in the season, and Roman Kantserov has a team-high 5 goals. Chicago averages 21.8 shots per game, among the lowest volumes in the league.
Defenseman Bowen Byram has been out with an upper-body injury since mid-October and was still listed out for Saturday’s game at Boston. The Blackhawks also allow 3.69 goals a game, 28th in the league, and kill only 78.1% of their penalties.
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Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon at 22 points, with Manson out for eight weeks 
Colorado’s attack is deep enough to survive an off night from its stars. Behind MacKinnon, Martin Necas has 16 points, Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 10 goals, and Devon Toews and Cale Makar have 11 points each from the blue line. Five different players scored in the 5-2 win over New Jersey on October 28.
The Avalanche average 4.15 goals a game, and they’ve scored five or more six times in 13 games, including 8-4 against Los Angeles and 7-3 at Calgary. Their power play converts 19.5%, and against a Chicago penalty kill at 78.1% that should produce chances.
The loss on that New Jersey night was Josh Manson. The defenseman hurt his ankle in the first period and Bednar said on October 30 that he’ll miss about eight weeks. He’d played every game, with 4 points and a team-high 28 hits, and Noah Juulsen is expected to take his place in the lineup.
Defending is where Colorado has been vulnerable. It allows 3.15 goals a game and kills only 76.9% of penalties, and Mackenzie Blackwood, at 6-3-0 with a 2.81 average and an .894 save percentage, has been the steadier of the two goalies. Scott Wedgewood is 1-2-1 with an .889 save percentage and gave up six on 35 shots in Nashville.
Forward Zach L’Heureux, acquired from Nashville in June with Fedor Svechkov for Jack Drury, has been out with an upper-body injury since October 14 and isn’t expected back until around November 6. Logan O’Connor’s status after a personal absence is unclear.
Probable lineup Chicago Blackhawks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche
Our prediction: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (puck line)
A straight Colorado win is likely to be priced below 1.45, so the value sits on the puck line. Chicago has scored more than three goals only three times in 13 games, while Colorado has scored at least five in six of its 13, and Monday’s visitors won all three meetings last season in regulation, 1-0, 3-1 and 4-1.
The Under has also landed in each of the last six meetings in Chicago, and that’s the honest argument against a two-goal margin: the Blackhawks at home tend to keep games low and slow. Knight stopping 25 of 26 against the Kings shows how a one-goal game can happen.
I still think the gap in finishing is too wide. Chicago’s power play is at 10% and its shot volume is among the league’s lowest, which leaves it relying on Knight to steal another one. We’d take Colorado to win by two or more, with an empty-net goal as a realistic route to covering.
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