- 1 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks: life without Edwards against a defense allowing 124.2
- 2 Minnesota Timberwolves: 51.6 rebounds a game and a bench that scored 19 through Hyland
- 3 Milwaukee Bucks: Herro at 23.4, but 0-2 on the road and 5.8 steals a game
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks: life without Edwards against a defense allowing 124.2 
Anthony Edwards was averaging 33.2 points per game when Minnesota lost him to arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Donte DiVincenzo is also out after Achilles surgery, and the Timberwolves have now played two games without their leading scorer.
They split them. Golden State won 119-114 at Target Center on Wednesday, and two nights later Minnesota beat the Clippers 127-101 on the same floor, with LaMelo Ball scoring 24 and Jaden McDaniels 23. That result moved the Wolves to 4-2.
Milwaukee visits on Monday 2 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET. The Bucks are 1-4, they’ve lost both of their road games, and their last outing was a 132-100 home defeat to Houston on Wednesday.
Both teams play on Saturday. Minnesota is in San Antonio, where the Spurs were 12.5-point favorites in the early market, and Milwaukee hosts Cleveland. Each gets Sunday off, so the schedule doesn’t separate them.
The defensive numbers do. Minnesota allows 106.7 points per game and Milwaukee allows 124.2, a gap of more than 17 points. Washington scored 128 on the Bucks, Chicago 132, Philadelphia 127 and Houston 132, and only Indiana, held to 102, came in under 120.
This is the first season of the post-Giannis Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo now plays in Miami, and the players Milwaukee received for him, Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr., are central to what this team does on both ends.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 51.6 rebounds a game and a bench that scored 19 through Hyland 
Without Edwards, the ball runs through LaMelo Ball. He leads the team at 6.6 assists per game and scored 24 against the Clippers, and Bones Hyland gave Minnesota another creator off the bench with 19 points and eight assists.
McDaniels is the second scoring option now. His 23 on Friday came alongside Ayo Dosunmu’s 15, and the Wolves shoot 38% from three as a team, which keeps the floor open for Ball’s drives.
Rudy Gobert went 0-for-13 from the field across the Cleveland and Golden State games. He answered with 13 rebounds against the Clippers, and he averages 12.2 a game for a team pulling down 51.6 per night.
That rebounding edge is the most direct way Minnesota replaces Edwards’ scoring. Milwaukee averages 49.8 rebounds, but it has given up second chances to teams with size, and Gobert and Jonathan Kuminga give Minnesota plenty of it.
The defense hasn’t dropped off without Edwards either. The Clippers scored 101 on Friday, and Minnesota’s two other home games produced 94 allowed against Toronto and 119 against Golden State, the second of those with Stephen Curry scoring 44.
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Milwaukee Bucks: Herro at 23.4, but 0-2 on the road and 5.8 steals a game 
Tyler Herro leads Milwaukee at 23.4 points per game, and he scored 23 in the loss to Houston. Jaquez added 19, but nobody else reached 11, and the Bucks were outscored badly after halftime.
The one win came against Indiana, 110-102 at home on 26 October. It’s also the only game in which Milwaukee held an opponent below 120.
Kel’el Ware averages 8.4 rebounds, mostly off the bench behind Myles Turner, so there’s size in the frontcourt. The issue is on the perimeter, where Milwaukee forces 5.8 steals per game and has struggled to contain long, athletic wings in transition.
Ball security is a concern as well. The Bucks commit 17.4 turnovers a game, and against a Minnesota team averaging 9.2 steals, that’s a lot of easy points to give up on the road.
No Milwaukee players carried an injury designation in the latest report. Ryan Rollins and Kyle Kuzma started next to Herro, Jaquez and Turner against Houston, and that group gave up 132.
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner
Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks
Our prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves on the handicap
No line was posted for Monday when we wrote this. We’d expect the Minnesota moneyline to sit under 1.45, so our pick is the Timberwolves on the handicap, up to -7.5, at 1.45 or better.
The 17-point gap in points allowed is the core of it. Milwaukee has given up 120 or more in four of five games, and Minnesota scored 127 on Friday without Edwards or DiVincenzo. The Wolves’ 51.6 rebounds a game add possessions that Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t shown it can absorb.
Losing Edwards does lower Minnesota’s ceiling, and the Golden State game showed what happens when an opposing guard gets hot. Milwaukee’s top scorer averages 23.4, and we’d rather back the home team’s defense and size than a road team that’s lost by 12 and 11 away from home.
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