- 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a short-handed Thunder team visits a 3-0 home record
- 2 Cleveland Cavaliers: 3-0 at home, Mobley at 20.0 and 10.0, and a 15-point lead lost in Atlanta
- 3 Oklahoma City Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander at 26.0, but two starters gone until March
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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- 11 About visuals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a short-handed Thunder team visits a 3-0 home record 
Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace were both hurt in the same game against the Clippers on 25 October. Williams fractured his fibula and dislocated his left ankle, Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder, and both have had surgery with no return expected before 2 March at the earliest. Oklahoma City lost two starters in one night, four games into the season.
The Thunder won the next game, 125-114 against Phoenix, then lost 120-96 in Dallas on 28 October. They made 5 of 32 threes that night, a season low, and Cooper Flagg had 26 points and eight assists against them. Oklahoma City went into the weekend at 4-1, but the roster that played in Dallas isn’t the one that opened the season.
Cleveland hosts the Thunder at Rocket Arena on Monday 2 November, tip-off 7:00pm ET. It’s the first of two games between them in three days, with the second in Oklahoma City on Wednesday 4 November. The Cavaliers are 3-2, 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, and both of their defeats came by eight points or fewer.
The injury list goes beyond Williams and Wallace. Alex Caruso is out until at least 4 November, Chet Holmgren has been a game-time decision with patellar tendinitis in his right knee after missing two straight games, and Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also unavailable. Against a Cleveland frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Holmgren’s status matters most of all.
Both teams play on Saturday, Oklahoma City at Houston and Cleveland at Milwaukee, so each gets one day off before Monday. The Thunder won both meetings last season, 136-104 in Cleveland in January and 121-113 at home in February, but both of those games came with Williams and Wallace available.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 3-0 at home, Mobley at 20.0 and 10.0, and a 15-point lead lost in Atlanta 
Cleveland’s three home wins came by four, two and ten points. The Cavaliers beat Brooklyn 125-121, Minnesota 127-125 in overtime and Washington 121-111. In the Washington game, Evan Mobley scored 24 points with a career-high five threes, and Peyton Watson added 22.
Mobley is averaging 20.0 points and 10.0 rebounds and has made 12 of 18 three-point attempts this season. That range changes how he’s guarded, and it gives Kenny Atkinson a big man who can pull a rim protector away from the basket. Jarrett Allen adds 13.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks.
Donovan Mitchell leads the scoring at around 24 points per game, with 6.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. James Harden, acquired in February, shares the playmaking with 15.8 points and 6.8 assists, and he scored 24 in Thursday’s 114-111 defeat in Atlanta.
That Atlanta game is the concern. Cleveland led by 15 after the first quarter and lost, with Mitchell missing two attempts to tie at the end. On the road the Cavaliers have also blown a 29-point lead in Philadelphia on 22 October, which makes them 0-2 away from home despite leading big in both games.
The injury list is limited. Rookie Meleek Thomas, who averaged 13.0 points off the bench through four games, is listed with a foot problem, and Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Khalifa Diop are out. Jaylon Tyson was cleared on 29 October after a neck injury.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander at 26.0, but two starters gone until March 
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 26.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists, and he had 34 against the Clippers in the game where Williams and Wallace went down. In Dallas he scored 21, and the team’s top scorer that night was Ajay Mitchell with 29.
Mitchell has become the second option. He set a career high with 30 against Phoenix on 26 October, the first game after the injuries, and averages 1.8 steals. Jared McCain scored 18 in the same game and has moved into the starting five alongside Mitchell, Kenrich Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Defense is still Oklahoma City’s base. The Thunder allow 104.6 points per game, held opponents to 41.2% shooting before the Dallas game and were forcing 19.5 turnovers a night. Mark Daigneault’s team won its first four games while allowing 104, 84, 101 and 114.
The offense is where the injuries show. Oklahoma City scores 108.2 points per game and shot 34.6% from three before going 5-of-32 in Dallas. Without Williams as a second creator, more of the ball-handling falls on Gilgeous-Alexander, McCain and Mitchell, and Caruso’s absence removes a defensive guard from the second unit.
Three of the Thunder’s four wins came at home. Their two road games produced a 116-104 win in San Antonio on opening night, with the full roster, and the 24-point defeat in Dallas without it.
Probable lineup Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein
Free NBA Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Our prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers to win
No line was posted for Monday when this was written, but I’d take the Cavaliers at any price above 1.45. Cleveland is 3-0 at home and averages 118.0 points, against a Thunder team that scored 96 in its only game so far with the depleted roster on the road.
The matchup inside favors Cleveland. Mobley and Allen combine for 19.0 rebounds per game, and Oklahoma City may be without Holmgren for a third straight game. Without Williams, Wallace and Caruso, the Thunder also lose three of the defenders they would use on Mitchell and Harden.
Cleveland’s habit of giving up big leads is the honest risk, and the Thunder’s defense still forces 19.5 turnovers a night. But both of those collapses came on the road, and at Rocket Arena the Cavaliers haven’t lost yet.
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