- 1 Porto vs Estoril: nine from nine at the top, no wins at all at the bottom
- 2 Porto: four goals conceded in nine league games
- 3 Estoril: five goals scored and four defeats on four away trips
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Porto vs Estoril
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Porto vs Estoril: nine from nine at the top, no wins at all at the bottom 
Twenty-seven points from nine games. That’s Porto’s best start to a league season since 1939-40, and it has them five points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga as defending champions.
Estoril are the side at the other end. They’re bottom, five points from safety, with two points from nine matches, and they’re the only team in the division still waiting for a league win.
The two meet at the Estádio do Dragão on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 20:30 UK time. Porto have won the last four meetings between the clubs.
Estoril changed coach in mid-October, when Vasco Matos was dismissed. Leandro Pires takes charge of only his second league game here, after a 3-1 home defeat to Moreirense on 25 October.
Francesco Farioli, in his second season at Porto, has won 50 of his 67 competitive matches in charge. His side’s last two European games were both defeats, 3-2 at Real Betis and 1-0 at home to PSV, but the league run hasn’t been touched.
The market makes Porto overwhelming favourites, at a price too short to back on its own, which is why the pick below looks for value elsewhere.
Porto: four goals conceded in nine league games 
Porto have scored 21 league goals and conceded four, the lowest total in the division. The 3-1 win over Benfica on 20 September is the biggest result in the run. Six of the 21 goals came in their first three league games, before the six-match run listed below.
Their league sequence reads 3-0 at Académico de Viseu, 2-1 at home to Moreirense, 4-1 at Casa Pia, 3-1 against Benfica, 2-1 at Maritimo and 1-0 at Gil Vicente last weekend. That win at Gil Vicente was their first clean sheet in eight matches across all competitions.
Farioli rotated in midweek, when Porto beat Académico de Viseu 1-0 in the Taça da Liga quarter-final. Diogo Costa, Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior are expected back in the starting side after being rested.
William Gomes has an ankle injury, Vasco Sousa is still recovering from a broken fibula, Oskar Pietuszewski is a doubt with a minor thigh problem and Chris Smalling will be assessed after a knock against Académico.
Porto face Napoli in the Champions League next week, so some management of minutes is likely. I don’t think it changes much against a side that has scored five league goals all season.
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Estoril: five goals scored and four defeats on four away trips 
Estoril have scored five league goals, joint-lowest in the Primeira Liga, and conceded roughly three times as many. They’ve lost all four of their league games away from home.
Across their last five league games Estoril have scored three goals and conceded eight. Pires’s first league match ended in that 3-1 home defeat to Moreirense, so the new-coach lift hasn’t arrived yet.
The last six league matches read: 2-1 defeat at Benfica, 0-0 at home to Arouca, 1-0 defeat at Braga, a 2-1 home defeat to Casa Pia, a 2-1 defeat at Académico de Viseu and the 3-1 home defeat to Moreirense. That’s five defeats and a draw from six.
Their only result of note in that stretch came in the Taça de Portugal, a 1-1 draw at Salgueiros that they won on penalties.
Estoril haven’t been overrun by the bigger sides. They lost by a single goal at Benfica and at Braga, 2-1 and 1-0, and held Arouca to a goalless draw at home. The problem has been at the other end, with one goal from those three games.
Pires is without Israel Salazar and Fabricio Garcia, both recovering from knee ligament injuries, and Yanis Begraoui could miss a fourth straight match.
The likely shape is a back three of Ferro, Tsoungui and Sintes, with Guitane, Camblan and Omerovic ahead of the midfield. Estoril have scored two goals in four away league games this season and conceded seven.
Probable lineup Porto: D. Costa; A. Costa, Bednarek, Kiwior, Sanusi; Froholdt, Rosario, Veiga; Sainz, Samu, Pepe
Probable lineup Estoril: Robles; Ferro, Tsoungui, Sintes; R. Sanchez, J. Carvalho, Holsgrove, Jurisic; Guitane, Camblan, Omerovic
Free Football Prediction: Porto vs Estoril
Our prediction: Porto to win to nil
Porto have conceded four league goals in nine games and won all nine. Bookmakers price an Estoril win as a very long shot. Estoril have scored five all season, two of them away from home, and lost all four league trips.
The one thing against the pick is Porto’s European form, with a goal conceded in each of the last two Champions League games and a clean sheet at Gil Vicente that ended a run of seven matches without one. I’d put that down to the opposition, because Betis and PSV are a different level from a side with five league goals.
With Costa, Bednarek and Kiwior back after a midweek rest and Estoril on their second game under a new coach, I’d take the home win without a goal conceded rather than the plain Porto win at a price that isn’t worth it.
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