- 1 Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks: a 206-point first meeting and two offenses below 111
- 2 Philadelphia 76ers: the fifth-best defense in the league, and the worst on the glass
- 3 New York Knicks: 133 points on Wednesday, 109.8 across the season
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks: a 206-point first meeting and two offenses below 111 
Philadelphia beat New York 106-100 at Madison Square Garden on 20 October, and the two teams combined for 206 points. Ten days later the rematch moves to Xfinity Mobile Arena on Friday 30 October, tip-off at 7:30pm ET, with the 76ers at 4-1 and top of the Atlantic Division and the Knicks at 2-3.
The game counts twice. It’s an NBA Cup group-play fixture in East Group B, and the result also goes into the regular-season standings, which gives both coaches a reason to treat it as more than an early-season rematch.
New York’s season has turned in the past four days. The Knicks lost to Philadelphia, Boston and Orlando to open 0-3, then beat Detroit 111-97 on Tuesday and Chicago 133-127 on Wednesday. That second win came with 22 made threes from 48 attempts and 32 assists, a shooting night they hadn’t produced in the first week of the season.
Philadelphia’s only defeat came on Sunday, 106-93 against Detroit, and the 76ers answered with a 114-109 win in Indiana on Wednesday. Both teams have had a night off since, so neither arrives on a back-to-back.
The market can’t separate them. One line has Philadelphia giving 3.5 points, another opened at 1.5, and prediction markets price the Knicks as narrow favorites on the moneyline. When the side is that close to a coin flip, I’d rather look at the number both teams’ first five games agree on, and that’s the total.
Philadelphia 76ers: the fifth-best defense in the league, and the worst on the glass 
Philadelphia allows 107.4 points per game, fifth in the NBA, and holds opponents to 42.7% from the field, fourth-best. Opponents are making 31.3% of their threes against this team, 52 from 166 attempts.
The weakness sits right next to that. The 76ers give up 52.4 rebounds a game, the most in the league, and Indiana took 47 off them on Wednesday. Against a Knicks team averaging 48.2 rebounds, that’s where the game could slip away from them.
Turnovers are how they make up for it. Philadelphia forces 18.0 a game and gives the ball away 13.4 times, so it tends to win the possession count even when it loses the boards. New York commits 16.0 a night, which plays straight into that pattern.
Tyrese Maxey carries the scoring at 28.4 points a game on 46.2% shooting, and he had 27 on 8-of-18 in Indiana. Jaylen Brown adds 20.6 and is hitting 40.9% from three, Joel Embiid is at 21.5 points and 10.0 rebounds, and LeBron James runs a lot of the offense with 6.8 assists to go with 15.5 points.
Even with that roster, the attack sits at 110.8 points per game on 42.8% shooting, 27th in the league. Embiid and VJ Edgecombe came off the injury report before Wednesday’s game, while Dominick Barlow and Tacko Fall are out and Jabari Walker is questionable.
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New York Knicks: 133 points on Wednesday, 109.8 across the season 
The 133 points New York scored against Chicago on Wednesday look like an outlier once the season averages come in. The Knicks are scoring 109.8 points per game, 24th in the league, on 42.2% from the field and 35.9% from three.
Jalen Brunson scored 38 on 13-of-25 shooting against the Bulls, with seven assists, and he’s averaging 25.8 points and 5.0 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns is the other half of it: 21.8 points and 13.8 rebounds on 58.3% shooting, plus 40.9% from three, and he had 27 points and 20 rebounds against Detroit on Tuesday.
OG Anunoby hasn’t found his range yet. He’s averaging 17.6 points but shooting 40.0% from the field and 27.3% from three, and against a defense holding teams to 31.3% from deep, New York’s spacing depends on him more than on anyone except Brunson.
The glass is where the Knicks have a real edge. They pull down 48.2 rebounds a game against Philadelphia’s 42.2, Josh Hart adds 7.8 boards and 2.2 steals, and Andre Drummond gives them 7.6 rebounds in his minutes. Second-chance points are the most likely way New York keeps this close on the road.
Defensively, the Knicks allow 109.6 points a game, 10th in the league, with opponents shooting 44.3%. Jose Alvarado missed Tuesday’s win with an ankle sprain and remains questionable, which leaves Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek to cover the backup point guard minutes.
Probable lineup Philadelphia 76ers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New York Knicks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks
Our prediction: Under 227.5 points (around 2.00)
Both teams have gone over the total once in five games this season. Philadelphia’s defense ranks fifth in points allowed while its offense sits 27th in field-goal percentage, and New York’s 109.8 points per game is 24th. The first meeting produced 206 points, more than 20 below tonight’s line.
Wednesday’s 133 in Chicago is the case for the over, and I don’t dismiss it, because the Knicks can get hot from three. It’s still one game out of five, and Philadelphia holds teams to 31.3% from deep and forces 18 turnovers a night, which ends a lot of possessions before they become shots.
The side is too close to call with confidence, with spreads ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 points and the moneyline split almost evenly. The total is where the evidence lines up, so Under 227.5 is the pick.
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